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Wednesday, 22 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The crude tanker market continues to gather momentum as we head towards the end of 1Q2023, against a backdrop of strong U.S. exports paired with a steady recovery of Chinese demand for crude.
U.S. crude exports are set to climb to 140.4 million barrels in March, versus 108.2 million barrels in February, amid a surge in domestic crude inventories, which currently hover close to 480,063 million barrels, almost 30,000 million barrels above the 5-year average and by 66.2 million barrels up from December 2022. More specifically, the surge occurred despite an increase in refinery rates after a strong maintenance season, while it was primarily driven by an increase in Gulf Coast crude inventories, which climbed to their highest since April 2021. China and Europe have been reportedly the biggest importers of U.S crude in March. As Europe and Asia look for supplies, U.S. crude oil exports, which have been bolstered by a change in trade flows following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, will continue to rise this year providing support to the tanker market.
Europe’s demand for U.S. crude is forecast to remain elevated in the coming weeks, as we head toward the peak summer season for crude buying. Moving forward, we should expect to see a boost in the USG to Europe (TD25) Aframax freight rates, which eased earlier this month due to the increased vessel supply in the U.S. Gulf. In addition, following January’s record of 385,133 barrels per day (bpd) of US crude exports to Europe shipped on VLCCs, we should expect to see some support in VLCC freights, as medium and heavy sour grades from the U.S. to Europe are increasingly being booked on larger sizes, a trend established back in 2022.
In the meantime, market sentiment firmed following the release of OPEC+’s report last week, which raised the forecast of Chinese oil demand to 710,000 barrels per day (bpd), amid expectations of surging jet fuel and diesel consumption. China’s crude imports remain robust and above the 40 million MT mark for eight consecutive months since August 2022. In March, China’s crude oil imports are assessed at 47.27 million MT, a 4.4% m-o-m increase. Imports from the U.S. are set to hit a 2.5-year high, pivoted by a recovery in demand and competitive prices compared to Middle Eastern supplies. Crude imports from the U.S. are forecast to remain elevated in 2Q and 3Q, amid a widening WTI/Dubai, which last week widened to 10$ per barrel, the widest since August 2022. In the coming weeks, we could see continued Chinese purchases of crude because of rising domestic demand and amid a drop in domestic inventories following increased refining demand.
VLCC fundamentals are unquestionably the most positive, driving rates up, as they were the first to stabilize as a result of recovering Chinese demand. Robust U.S. exports to China have been particularly beneficial for VLCC vessels. VLCC freight rates hover well above their 2022 average, while ton-miles remain elevated, underpinned by strong demand in the USG to China (TD22) route.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 25 January 24
THE RED SEA ESCALATION IMPLICATIONS ON GLOBAL SEABORNE TRADE - MARIA BERTZELETOU
In recent days, discussions have intensified about the potential impact on the seaborne trade and ton-miles due to the evolving dynamics of market ...
Thursday, 25 January 24
RED SEA SHIPPING DISRUPTIONS KEEP GEOPOLITICAL PREMIUM FOR COMMODITIES - FITCH RATINGS
Shipping disruptions and re-routing away from the Red Sea will maintain the geopolitical premium in the main commodity markets, including for oil a ...
Friday, 19 January 24
INDONESIA TARGETS 710 MLN METRIC TONS COAL OUTPUT IN 2024 AFTER RECORD 2023 - REUTERS
Indonesia, a major thermal coal exporter, aims to produce 710 million metric tons of coal in 2024, its mining minister said on Monday, after postin ...
Friday, 19 January 24
DRUMMOND COLOMBIA COAL OUTPUT ROSE 7.1% IN 2023 - REUTERS
Coal production from miner Drummond’s Colombia operations rose 7.1% in 2023 to 29.5 million metric tons, while exports declined by 2.6% to 27 ...
Friday, 19 January 24
CHINA'S 2023 COAL OUTPUT HITS RECORD HIGH - REUTERS
China’s coal output reached a record high in 2023, data from the statistics bureau showed on Wednesday, amid an ongoing focus on energy secur ...
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- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- White Energy Company Limited
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- VISA Power Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
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