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Wednesday, 22 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The crude tanker market continues to gather momentum as we head towards the end of 1Q2023, against a backdrop of strong U.S. exports paired with a steady recovery of Chinese demand for crude.
U.S. crude exports are set to climb to 140.4 million barrels in March, versus 108.2 million barrels in February, amid a surge in domestic crude inventories, which currently hover close to 480,063 million barrels, almost 30,000 million barrels above the 5-year average and by 66.2 million barrels up from December 2022. More specifically, the surge occurred despite an increase in refinery rates after a strong maintenance season, while it was primarily driven by an increase in Gulf Coast crude inventories, which climbed to their highest since April 2021. China and Europe have been reportedly the biggest importers of U.S crude in March. As Europe and Asia look for supplies, U.S. crude oil exports, which have been bolstered by a change in trade flows following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, will continue to rise this year providing support to the tanker market.
Europe’s demand for U.S. crude is forecast to remain elevated in the coming weeks, as we head toward the peak summer season for crude buying. Moving forward, we should expect to see a boost in the USG to Europe (TD25) Aframax freight rates, which eased earlier this month due to the increased vessel supply in the U.S. Gulf. In addition, following January’s record of 385,133 barrels per day (bpd) of US crude exports to Europe shipped on VLCCs, we should expect to see some support in VLCC freights, as medium and heavy sour grades from the U.S. to Europe are increasingly being booked on larger sizes, a trend established back in 2022.
In the meantime, market sentiment firmed following the release of OPEC+’s report last week, which raised the forecast of Chinese oil demand to 710,000 barrels per day (bpd), amid expectations of surging jet fuel and diesel consumption. China’s crude imports remain robust and above the 40 million MT mark for eight consecutive months since August 2022. In March, China’s crude oil imports are assessed at 47.27 million MT, a 4.4% m-o-m increase. Imports from the U.S. are set to hit a 2.5-year high, pivoted by a recovery in demand and competitive prices compared to Middle Eastern supplies. Crude imports from the U.S. are forecast to remain elevated in 2Q and 3Q, amid a widening WTI/Dubai, which last week widened to 10$ per barrel, the widest since August 2022. In the coming weeks, we could see continued Chinese purchases of crude because of rising domestic demand and amid a drop in domestic inventories following increased refining demand.
VLCC fundamentals are unquestionably the most positive, driving rates up, as they were the first to stabilize as a result of recovering Chinese demand. Robust U.S. exports to China have been particularly beneficial for VLCC vessels. VLCC freight rates hover well above their 2022 average, while ton-miles remain elevated, underpinned by strong demand in the USG to China (TD22) route.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 31 January 24
CHINA'S INNER MONGOLIA COAL OUTPUT HIT 1.21B TONS IN 2023 - XINHUA
North China’s Inner Mongolia autonomous region churned out 1.21 billion tons of coal in 2023 as it strives to guarantee the country’s e ...
Wednesday, 31 January 24
GAS EXPORTS COST U.S. CONSUMERS MORE THAN $100 BILLION OVER 16-MONTH PERIOD - IEEFA
Limited Demand Growth Could Dampen the Dry Bulk Market in the Coming Months BIMCOStarting in late 2021—before its invasion of Ukraine—R ...
Tuesday, 30 January 24
LIMITED DEMAND GROWTH COULD DAMPEN THE DRY BULK MARKET IN THE COMING MONTHS - BIMCO
Demand
In our base scenario, we expect cargo demand to grow by 0-1% in 2024 and 0.5-1.5% in 2025. This is a 0.5 percentage point reduction for ...
Friday, 26 January 24
RED SEA DIVERSIONS ADD NEARLY A MILLION DOLLARS PER VOYAGE TO SHIPPING COSTS WHILE DOUBLING TRANSIT TIME - LSEG
The incremental costs of diverting a tanker from Asia to NW Europe via the Cape of Good Hope is accounting for an extra $932,905 USD per voyage whi ...
Friday, 26 January 24
HARD COAL GUARDIAN ANGEL OF THE ENERGY SUPPLY - GERMANY COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION
- No security of supply without hard coal
- The Substitute Power Plant Provision Act (EKBG) must be extended
- Higher grid fees due to the ...
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- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- White Energy Company Limited
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
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- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
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- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
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- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
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- The Treasury - Australian Government
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- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
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- Australian Coal Association
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- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
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- MS Steel International - UAE
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
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- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
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- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
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- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
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- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
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- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
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- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
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- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
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- Mjunction Services Limited - India
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- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
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- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
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- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
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- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
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