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Wednesday, 22 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The crude tanker market continues to gather momentum as we head towards the end of 1Q2023, against a backdrop of strong U.S. exports paired with a steady recovery of Chinese demand for crude.
U.S. crude exports are set to climb to 140.4 million barrels in March, versus 108.2 million barrels in February, amid a surge in domestic crude inventories, which currently hover close to 480,063 million barrels, almost 30,000 million barrels above the 5-year average and by 66.2 million barrels up from December 2022. More specifically, the surge occurred despite an increase in refinery rates after a strong maintenance season, while it was primarily driven by an increase in Gulf Coast crude inventories, which climbed to their highest since April 2021. China and Europe have been reportedly the biggest importers of U.S crude in March. As Europe and Asia look for supplies, U.S. crude oil exports, which have been bolstered by a change in trade flows following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, will continue to rise this year providing support to the tanker market.
Europe’s demand for U.S. crude is forecast to remain elevated in the coming weeks, as we head toward the peak summer season for crude buying. Moving forward, we should expect to see a boost in the USG to Europe (TD25) Aframax freight rates, which eased earlier this month due to the increased vessel supply in the U.S. Gulf. In addition, following January’s record of 385,133 barrels per day (bpd) of US crude exports to Europe shipped on VLCCs, we should expect to see some support in VLCC freights, as medium and heavy sour grades from the U.S. to Europe are increasingly being booked on larger sizes, a trend established back in 2022.
In the meantime, market sentiment firmed following the release of OPEC+’s report last week, which raised the forecast of Chinese oil demand to 710,000 barrels per day (bpd), amid expectations of surging jet fuel and diesel consumption. China’s crude imports remain robust and above the 40 million MT mark for eight consecutive months since August 2022. In March, China’s crude oil imports are assessed at 47.27 million MT, a 4.4% m-o-m increase. Imports from the U.S. are set to hit a 2.5-year high, pivoted by a recovery in demand and competitive prices compared to Middle Eastern supplies. Crude imports from the U.S. are forecast to remain elevated in 2Q and 3Q, amid a widening WTI/Dubai, which last week widened to 10$ per barrel, the widest since August 2022. In the coming weeks, we could see continued Chinese purchases of crude because of rising domestic demand and amid a drop in domestic inventories following increased refining demand.
VLCC fundamentals are unquestionably the most positive, driving rates up, as they were the first to stabilize as a result of recovering Chinese demand. Robust U.S. exports to China have been particularly beneficial for VLCC vessels. VLCC freight rates hover well above their 2022 average, while ton-miles remain elevated, underpinned by strong demand in the USG to China (TD22) route.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 13 February 24
WHAT IS THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NATURAL GAS SPOT PRICE IN 2024 AND 2025? EIA
We expect the U.S. benchmark Henry Hub natural gas spot price to average higher in 2024 and 2025 than in 2023, but to remain lower than $3.00 per m ...
Monday, 12 February 24
US THERMAL COAL EXPORTS HIT 5-YEAR HIGHS AND TOP $5 BLN IN 2023 - REUTERS
United States exporters of thermal coal earned more than $5 billion in 2023 as they shipped out more than 32.5 million metric tons of the high-poll ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
NEW E-FUELS PROJECT TO MAKE INTERNATIONAL SHIPPING CLIMATE-NEUTRAL - RINA
Transport and trade on the ocean blue must be made much greener. This is the goal of the new €17 million European GAMMA project, where compani ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
INDIA SEES ANNUAL COAL OUTPUT UP 10.9% IN 2024/25 - REUTERS
India expects domestic coal output to increase by 10.9% to 1.13 billion metric tons in the fiscal year ending March 2025, a senior government offic ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
INDIA'S COAL PRODUCTION INCREASES BY 10.3% TO 99.73 MILLION TONNE IN JANUARY - PTI
The country’s coal output rose 10.3 per cent to 99.73 Million Tonne (MT) in January, over the same month in the previous fiscal.
...
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- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Australian Coal Association
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Planning Commission, India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
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