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Wednesday, 22 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The crude tanker market continues to gather momentum as we head towards the end of 1Q2023, against a backdrop of strong U.S. exports paired with a steady recovery of Chinese demand for crude.
U.S. crude exports are set to climb to 140.4 million barrels in March, versus 108.2 million barrels in February, amid a surge in domestic crude inventories, which currently hover close to 480,063 million barrels, almost 30,000 million barrels above the 5-year average and by 66.2 million barrels up from December 2022. More specifically, the surge occurred despite an increase in refinery rates after a strong maintenance season, while it was primarily driven by an increase in Gulf Coast crude inventories, which climbed to their highest since April 2021. China and Europe have been reportedly the biggest importers of U.S crude in March. As Europe and Asia look for supplies, U.S. crude oil exports, which have been bolstered by a change in trade flows following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, will continue to rise this year providing support to the tanker market.
Europe’s demand for U.S. crude is forecast to remain elevated in the coming weeks, as we head toward the peak summer season for crude buying. Moving forward, we should expect to see a boost in the USG to Europe (TD25) Aframax freight rates, which eased earlier this month due to the increased vessel supply in the U.S. Gulf. In addition, following January’s record of 385,133 barrels per day (bpd) of US crude exports to Europe shipped on VLCCs, we should expect to see some support in VLCC freights, as medium and heavy sour grades from the U.S. to Europe are increasingly being booked on larger sizes, a trend established back in 2022.
In the meantime, market sentiment firmed following the release of OPEC+’s report last week, which raised the forecast of Chinese oil demand to 710,000 barrels per day (bpd), amid expectations of surging jet fuel and diesel consumption. China’s crude imports remain robust and above the 40 million MT mark for eight consecutive months since August 2022. In March, China’s crude oil imports are assessed at 47.27 million MT, a 4.4% m-o-m increase. Imports from the U.S. are set to hit a 2.5-year high, pivoted by a recovery in demand and competitive prices compared to Middle Eastern supplies. Crude imports from the U.S. are forecast to remain elevated in 2Q and 3Q, amid a widening WTI/Dubai, which last week widened to 10$ per barrel, the widest since August 2022. In the coming weeks, we could see continued Chinese purchases of crude because of rising domestic demand and amid a drop in domestic inventories following increased refining demand.
VLCC fundamentals are unquestionably the most positive, driving rates up, as they were the first to stabilize as a result of recovering Chinese demand. Robust U.S. exports to China have been particularly beneficial for VLCC vessels. VLCC freight rates hover well above their 2022 average, while ton-miles remain elevated, underpinned by strong demand in the USG to China (TD22) route.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 23 February 24
STRONG OUTLOOK FOR THE TANKER MARKET IN 2024 AND BEYOND - DNV
Several factors have aligned over the past two years to create a robust and profitable market for tanker owners, which is expected to drive newbuil ...
Friday, 23 February 24
AUSTRALIAN COAL FLOWS TO ASIA HOVER ABOVE LAST YEAR’S VOLUME TONNES - SIGNAL GROUP
In the final days of February, the dry bulk freight market appeared to maintain a relatively stable momentum, particularly evident in the large ves ...
Friday, 23 February 24
RUSSIAN COAL SHIPMENTS FALL 14% AS SANCTIONS BITE - BIMCO
During the first seven weeks of 2024, Russian coal shipments have fallen 14% y/y. Volumes have gradually declined since October 2023 when logistica ...
Thursday, 22 February 24
BIMCO PUBLISHES SHIP FINANCING FORMS TO ENSURE UNINTERRUPTED USE OF SHIPS
BIMCO has published two standard Quiet Enjoyment Letters (QELs), the first standard form QELs available to the industry, to offer a tool that can e ...
Monday, 19 February 24
METALS INVESTMENT: THE DARKEST HOUR IS JUST BEFORE THE DAWN - WOOD MACKENZIE
Things often seem at their worst just before they get better. In terms of meeting our net zero 2050 scenario, we’ve reached a watershed momen ...
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- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
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