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Wednesday, 22 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The crude tanker market continues to gather momentum as we head towards the end of 1Q2023, against a backdrop of strong U.S. exports paired with a steady recovery of Chinese demand for crude.
U.S. crude exports are set to climb to 140.4 million barrels in March, versus 108.2 million barrels in February, amid a surge in domestic crude inventories, which currently hover close to 480,063 million barrels, almost 30,000 million barrels above the 5-year average and by 66.2 million barrels up from December 2022. More specifically, the surge occurred despite an increase in refinery rates after a strong maintenance season, while it was primarily driven by an increase in Gulf Coast crude inventories, which climbed to their highest since April 2021. China and Europe have been reportedly the biggest importers of U.S crude in March. As Europe and Asia look for supplies, U.S. crude oil exports, which have been bolstered by a change in trade flows following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, will continue to rise this year providing support to the tanker market.
Europe’s demand for U.S. crude is forecast to remain elevated in the coming weeks, as we head toward the peak summer season for crude buying. Moving forward, we should expect to see a boost in the USG to Europe (TD25) Aframax freight rates, which eased earlier this month due to the increased vessel supply in the U.S. Gulf. In addition, following January’s record of 385,133 barrels per day (bpd) of US crude exports to Europe shipped on VLCCs, we should expect to see some support in VLCC freights, as medium and heavy sour grades from the U.S. to Europe are increasingly being booked on larger sizes, a trend established back in 2022.
In the meantime, market sentiment firmed following the release of OPEC+’s report last week, which raised the forecast of Chinese oil demand to 710,000 barrels per day (bpd), amid expectations of surging jet fuel and diesel consumption. China’s crude imports remain robust and above the 40 million MT mark for eight consecutive months since August 2022. In March, China’s crude oil imports are assessed at 47.27 million MT, a 4.4% m-o-m increase. Imports from the U.S. are set to hit a 2.5-year high, pivoted by a recovery in demand and competitive prices compared to Middle Eastern supplies. Crude imports from the U.S. are forecast to remain elevated in 2Q and 3Q, amid a widening WTI/Dubai, which last week widened to 10$ per barrel, the widest since August 2022. In the coming weeks, we could see continued Chinese purchases of crude because of rising domestic demand and amid a drop in domestic inventories following increased refining demand.
VLCC fundamentals are unquestionably the most positive, driving rates up, as they were the first to stabilize as a result of recovering Chinese demand. Robust U.S. exports to China have been particularly beneficial for VLCC vessels. VLCC freight rates hover well above their 2022 average, while ton-miles remain elevated, underpinned by strong demand in the USG to China (TD22) route.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 12 June 24
CHINA ACCOUNTS FOR 16.3% OF AUSTRALIA'S COAL EXPORTS, FOLLOWED BY INDIA 14.4% - BANCHERO COSTA
Global coal trade has really picked up pace in recent months, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels says Banchero Costa in its latest report.
...
Wednesday, 12 June 24
LNG NEWBUILDING VALUES AT RECORD HIGH: 78 NEWBUILD ORDERS PLACED IN 2024, DOUBLING 2023 - VESON NAUTICAL
The number of LNG newbuilding orders have more than doubled from the same period last year where 34 orders were placed, compared to 78 in the first ...
Monday, 10 June 24
CHINA'S MAY COAL IMPORTS RISE 11% ON LOWER DOMESTIC OUTPUT - REUTERS
China’s imports of coal rose 11% in May from a year earlier, customs data and Reuters records showed on Friday, as lower domestic output this ...
Tuesday, 04 June 24
HOW DO WESTERN SANCTIONS ON RUSSIA IMPACT THE GLOBAL METALS, MINING AND COAL MARKETS - WOOD MACKENZIE
The geopolitical landscape for Russia, as a major supplier of various commodities, has undergone a dramatic transformation since the invasion of Uk ...
Friday, 22 March 24
CASE STUDY: DANGERS OF COAL CARGO - SKULD
Recently, a bulk cargo vessel carrying coal from South Africa to Singapore suffered a fatal accident, resulting in the deaths of three crew members ...
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- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Australian Coal Association
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
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