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Wednesday, 22 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The crude tanker market continues to gather momentum as we head towards the end of 1Q2023, against a backdrop of strong U.S. exports paired with a steady recovery of Chinese demand for crude.
U.S. crude exports are set to climb to 140.4 million barrels in March, versus 108.2 million barrels in February, amid a surge in domestic crude inventories, which currently hover close to 480,063 million barrels, almost 30,000 million barrels above the 5-year average and by 66.2 million barrels up from December 2022. More specifically, the surge occurred despite an increase in refinery rates after a strong maintenance season, while it was primarily driven by an increase in Gulf Coast crude inventories, which climbed to their highest since April 2021. China and Europe have been reportedly the biggest importers of U.S crude in March. As Europe and Asia look for supplies, U.S. crude oil exports, which have been bolstered by a change in trade flows following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, will continue to rise this year providing support to the tanker market.
Europe’s demand for U.S. crude is forecast to remain elevated in the coming weeks, as we head toward the peak summer season for crude buying. Moving forward, we should expect to see a boost in the USG to Europe (TD25) Aframax freight rates, which eased earlier this month due to the increased vessel supply in the U.S. Gulf. In addition, following January’s record of 385,133 barrels per day (bpd) of US crude exports to Europe shipped on VLCCs, we should expect to see some support in VLCC freights, as medium and heavy sour grades from the U.S. to Europe are increasingly being booked on larger sizes, a trend established back in 2022.
In the meantime, market sentiment firmed following the release of OPEC+’s report last week, which raised the forecast of Chinese oil demand to 710,000 barrels per day (bpd), amid expectations of surging jet fuel and diesel consumption. China’s crude imports remain robust and above the 40 million MT mark for eight consecutive months since August 2022. In March, China’s crude oil imports are assessed at 47.27 million MT, a 4.4% m-o-m increase. Imports from the U.S. are set to hit a 2.5-year high, pivoted by a recovery in demand and competitive prices compared to Middle Eastern supplies. Crude imports from the U.S. are forecast to remain elevated in 2Q and 3Q, amid a widening WTI/Dubai, which last week widened to 10$ per barrel, the widest since August 2022. In the coming weeks, we could see continued Chinese purchases of crude because of rising domestic demand and amid a drop in domestic inventories following increased refining demand.
VLCC fundamentals are unquestionably the most positive, driving rates up, as they were the first to stabilize as a result of recovering Chinese demand. Robust U.S. exports to China have been particularly beneficial for VLCC vessels. VLCC freight rates hover well above their 2022 average, while ton-miles remain elevated, underpinned by strong demand in the USG to China (TD22) route.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 28 June 24
INDIAN POWER STATIONS STOCKED WITH BUMPER COAL SUPPLY AS TRANSPORT WOES EASE - BUSINESS STANDARD
Even as power demand has touched a historic high of 250 gigawatts (Gw) amid sweltering heat this June, India’s power stations are stocked wit ...
Friday, 28 June 24
INDIA'S CY23 COAL USE LARGER THAN NORTH AMERICA, EUROPE COMBINED - THE HINDU
For the first time, India’s coal consumption surpassed that of North America and Europe combined in the calendar year 2023, said Energy Insti ...
Monday, 24 June 24
PLN'S FINANCIAL SUSTAINABILITY RESTS ON ACCELERATED COAL RETIREMENT AND RENEWABLES DEPLOYMENT - MUTYA YUSTIKA
On 28 May 2024, Indonesia’s national electricity utility, PT Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN), released its financial report for 2023. Althoug ...
Monday, 24 June 24
INDIA'S COAL-BASED POWER DEMAND AT ALL-TIME HIGH, GOVERNMENT SAYS - REUTERS
India’s demand for coal-based power has risen by 7.3% this fiscal year to an all-time high, the government said in a statement on Wednesday.
...
Monday, 24 June 24
CHINA'S COAL INDUSTRY TURNS GREENER THROUGH INNOVATIVE APPROACHES - PEOPLE'S DAILY
At an opencast mine operated by Inner Mongolia Pingzhuang Coal Group Co. Ltd., a subsidiary of CHN Energy Investment Group (CHN Energy), a 14-meter ...
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- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Planning Commission, India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
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