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Wednesday, 22 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The crude tanker market continues to gather momentum as we head towards the end of 1Q2023, against a backdrop of strong U.S. exports paired with a steady recovery of Chinese demand for crude.
U.S. crude exports are set to climb to 140.4 million barrels in March, versus 108.2 million barrels in February, amid a surge in domestic crude inventories, which currently hover close to 480,063 million barrels, almost 30,000 million barrels above the 5-year average and by 66.2 million barrels up from December 2022. More specifically, the surge occurred despite an increase in refinery rates after a strong maintenance season, while it was primarily driven by an increase in Gulf Coast crude inventories, which climbed to their highest since April 2021. China and Europe have been reportedly the biggest importers of U.S crude in March. As Europe and Asia look for supplies, U.S. crude oil exports, which have been bolstered by a change in trade flows following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, will continue to rise this year providing support to the tanker market.
Europe’s demand for U.S. crude is forecast to remain elevated in the coming weeks, as we head toward the peak summer season for crude buying. Moving forward, we should expect to see a boost in the USG to Europe (TD25) Aframax freight rates, which eased earlier this month due to the increased vessel supply in the U.S. Gulf. In addition, following January’s record of 385,133 barrels per day (bpd) of US crude exports to Europe shipped on VLCCs, we should expect to see some support in VLCC freights, as medium and heavy sour grades from the U.S. to Europe are increasingly being booked on larger sizes, a trend established back in 2022.
In the meantime, market sentiment firmed following the release of OPEC+’s report last week, which raised the forecast of Chinese oil demand to 710,000 barrels per day (bpd), amid expectations of surging jet fuel and diesel consumption. China’s crude imports remain robust and above the 40 million MT mark for eight consecutive months since August 2022. In March, China’s crude oil imports are assessed at 47.27 million MT, a 4.4% m-o-m increase. Imports from the U.S. are set to hit a 2.5-year high, pivoted by a recovery in demand and competitive prices compared to Middle Eastern supplies. Crude imports from the U.S. are forecast to remain elevated in 2Q and 3Q, amid a widening WTI/Dubai, which last week widened to 10$ per barrel, the widest since August 2022. In the coming weeks, we could see continued Chinese purchases of crude because of rising domestic demand and amid a drop in domestic inventories following increased refining demand.
VLCC fundamentals are unquestionably the most positive, driving rates up, as they were the first to stabilize as a result of recovering Chinese demand. Robust U.S. exports to China have been particularly beneficial for VLCC vessels. VLCC freight rates hover well above their 2022 average, while ton-miles remain elevated, underpinned by strong demand in the USG to China (TD22) route.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 06 September 24
REBOUND IN OIL DEMAND COULD LIFT MARKET IN LATTER HALF OF 2024 - BIMCO
Supply/demand
Based on a strong second half demand, the supply/balance is forecast to strengthen in 2024 but weaken slightly in 2025 as n ...
Friday, 06 September 24
GLOBAL SEABORNE LNG TRADE HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE LAST YEAR - BANCHERO COSTA
Global seaborne LNG trade has continued to increase last year, helped also by the events in Ukraine which forced Europe to diversify away from Russ ...
Wednesday, 28 August 24
SEABORNE COAL IMPORTS INTO INDIA INCREASED BY +9.9% Y-O-Y TO 146.6 MLN T - BANCHERO COSTA
Global coal trade has really picked up pace over the past year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels said Banchero Costa Research in its lates ...
Tuesday, 06 August 24
EXERCISE CAUTION WITH AMMONIA SWITCH - BALTIC EXCHANGE
A new study from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) has thrown a spanner into the plan to transition ships from diesel fuel to ammonia ...
Friday, 02 August 24
ENERGY MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: COAL AND NATURAL GAS PRICES REACH RECORD HIGHS - WORLD BANK
The recent surge in natural gas and coal prices has been so swift that the main benchmarks were roughly three times higher in 2022Q2 compared to a ...
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- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- White Energy Company Limited
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Australian Coal Association
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
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