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Wednesday, 22 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The crude tanker market continues to gather momentum as we head towards the end of 1Q2023, against a backdrop of strong U.S. exports paired with a steady recovery of Chinese demand for crude.
U.S. crude exports are set to climb to 140.4 million barrels in March, versus 108.2 million barrels in February, amid a surge in domestic crude inventories, which currently hover close to 480,063 million barrels, almost 30,000 million barrels above the 5-year average and by 66.2 million barrels up from December 2022. More specifically, the surge occurred despite an increase in refinery rates after a strong maintenance season, while it was primarily driven by an increase in Gulf Coast crude inventories, which climbed to their highest since April 2021. China and Europe have been reportedly the biggest importers of U.S crude in March. As Europe and Asia look for supplies, U.S. crude oil exports, which have been bolstered by a change in trade flows following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, will continue to rise this year providing support to the tanker market.
Europe’s demand for U.S. crude is forecast to remain elevated in the coming weeks, as we head toward the peak summer season for crude buying. Moving forward, we should expect to see a boost in the USG to Europe (TD25) Aframax freight rates, which eased earlier this month due to the increased vessel supply in the U.S. Gulf. In addition, following January’s record of 385,133 barrels per day (bpd) of US crude exports to Europe shipped on VLCCs, we should expect to see some support in VLCC freights, as medium and heavy sour grades from the U.S. to Europe are increasingly being booked on larger sizes, a trend established back in 2022.
In the meantime, market sentiment firmed following the release of OPEC+’s report last week, which raised the forecast of Chinese oil demand to 710,000 barrels per day (bpd), amid expectations of surging jet fuel and diesel consumption. China’s crude imports remain robust and above the 40 million MT mark for eight consecutive months since August 2022. In March, China’s crude oil imports are assessed at 47.27 million MT, a 4.4% m-o-m increase. Imports from the U.S. are set to hit a 2.5-year high, pivoted by a recovery in demand and competitive prices compared to Middle Eastern supplies. Crude imports from the U.S. are forecast to remain elevated in 2Q and 3Q, amid a widening WTI/Dubai, which last week widened to 10$ per barrel, the widest since August 2022. In the coming weeks, we could see continued Chinese purchases of crude because of rising domestic demand and amid a drop in domestic inventories following increased refining demand.
VLCC fundamentals are unquestionably the most positive, driving rates up, as they were the first to stabilize as a result of recovering Chinese demand. Robust U.S. exports to China have been particularly beneficial for VLCC vessels. VLCC freight rates hover well above their 2022 average, while ton-miles remain elevated, underpinned by strong demand in the USG to China (TD22) route.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 02 August 24
COAL MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: FALLING PRICES AMID RECORD-HIGH OUTPUT - WORLD BANK
Coal prices inched up in May (m/m) following an 8 percent decline in 2024Q1. The Australian and South African benchmarks have plummeted more ...
Friday, 26 July 24
FUELEU MARITME IS COMING. IS YOUR CHARTERPARTY READY? - GARD
With less than six months to implementation of FuelEU Maritime in EU and EEA trades, there has been little published advice regarding how to alloca ...
Thursday, 04 July 24
INDIA'S COAL PRODUCTION RISES 14% IN JUNE - PTI
The country’s coal production rose by 14.49% to 84.63 million tonne (MT) in June. The country’s coal output was 73.92 MT in June last f ...
Tuesday, 02 July 24
NTPC CAPTIVE COAL OUTPUT GROWS 15% IN Q1; DESPATCH RISES 17%
State-owned NTPC on Monday reported a 15 per cent year-on-year increase in the production of coal from captives mines to 9.862 metric million tonne ...
Friday, 28 June 24
KOSPO INVITED BIDS FOR 400,000 MT OF MINIMUM 4000 NCV COAL FOR FIVE YEARS
Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO), is inviting bids for total 400,000 MT of Low Calorific Value Coal for 5 years starting from July 2024 until ...
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- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Australian Coal Association
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The University of Queensland
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
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