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Wednesday, 22 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The crude tanker market continues to gather momentum as we head towards the end of 1Q2023, against a backdrop of strong U.S. exports paired with a steady recovery of Chinese demand for crude.
U.S. crude exports are set to climb to 140.4 million barrels in March, versus 108.2 million barrels in February, amid a surge in domestic crude inventories, which currently hover close to 480,063 million barrels, almost 30,000 million barrels above the 5-year average and by 66.2 million barrels up from December 2022. More specifically, the surge occurred despite an increase in refinery rates after a strong maintenance season, while it was primarily driven by an increase in Gulf Coast crude inventories, which climbed to their highest since April 2021. China and Europe have been reportedly the biggest importers of U.S crude in March. As Europe and Asia look for supplies, U.S. crude oil exports, which have been bolstered by a change in trade flows following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, will continue to rise this year providing support to the tanker market.
Europe’s demand for U.S. crude is forecast to remain elevated in the coming weeks, as we head toward the peak summer season for crude buying. Moving forward, we should expect to see a boost in the USG to Europe (TD25) Aframax freight rates, which eased earlier this month due to the increased vessel supply in the U.S. Gulf. In addition, following January’s record of 385,133 barrels per day (bpd) of US crude exports to Europe shipped on VLCCs, we should expect to see some support in VLCC freights, as medium and heavy sour grades from the U.S. to Europe are increasingly being booked on larger sizes, a trend established back in 2022.
In the meantime, market sentiment firmed following the release of OPEC+’s report last week, which raised the forecast of Chinese oil demand to 710,000 barrels per day (bpd), amid expectations of surging jet fuel and diesel consumption. China’s crude imports remain robust and above the 40 million MT mark for eight consecutive months since August 2022. In March, China’s crude oil imports are assessed at 47.27 million MT, a 4.4% m-o-m increase. Imports from the U.S. are set to hit a 2.5-year high, pivoted by a recovery in demand and competitive prices compared to Middle Eastern supplies. Crude imports from the U.S. are forecast to remain elevated in 2Q and 3Q, amid a widening WTI/Dubai, which last week widened to 10$ per barrel, the widest since August 2022. In the coming weeks, we could see continued Chinese purchases of crude because of rising domestic demand and amid a drop in domestic inventories following increased refining demand.
VLCC fundamentals are unquestionably the most positive, driving rates up, as they were the first to stabilize as a result of recovering Chinese demand. Robust U.S. exports to China have been particularly beneficial for VLCC vessels. VLCC freight rates hover well above their 2022 average, while ton-miles remain elevated, underpinned by strong demand in the USG to China (TD22) route.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 22 March 24
INDONESIA APPROVES 922.14 MLN T COAL PRODUCTION QUOTA FOR 2024, ABOVE TARGET - REUTERS
Indonesia has approved coal production quotas totalling 922.14 million metric tons for 2024, Bambang Suswantono, a senior official at the mining mi ...
Friday, 22 March 24
CHINA COAL INDUSTRY GROUP EXPECTS OUTPUT GROWTH TO SLOW IN 2024 - REUTERS
China’s coal output is expected to increase 36 million metric tons, or 0.8%, to about 4.7 billion tonnes in 2024, a Chinese coal industry gro ...
Monday, 18 March 24
THREE KEY TAKEAWAYS FROM OUR EUROPE GAS MARKETS SHORT-TERM OUTLOOK Q1 2024 - WOOD MACKENZIE
European gas prices are currently back to pre-crisis levels, but with a complex series of factors affecting future supply and demand, are they set ...
Wednesday, 06 March 24
INDONESIA AIMS TO FINISH MINING OUTPUT QUOTAS APPROVAL BY END-MARCH, OFFICIAL SAYS - REUTERS
Indonesia’s has approved the mining production quotarequests from more than 120mineral companies and aims to complete the approval process th ...
Monday, 04 March 24
IS YOUR GUARANTEE A GUARANTEE? NOTE TO SHIPOWNERS - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The law of guarantees is not always obvious or easy to understand without proper guidance. This article clarifies the dif ...
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- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- The University of Queensland
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Planning Commission, India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- VISA Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
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