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Wednesday, 22 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The crude tanker market continues to gather momentum as we head towards the end of 1Q2023, against a backdrop of strong U.S. exports paired with a steady recovery of Chinese demand for crude.
U.S. crude exports are set to climb to 140.4 million barrels in March, versus 108.2 million barrels in February, amid a surge in domestic crude inventories, which currently hover close to 480,063 million barrels, almost 30,000 million barrels above the 5-year average and by 66.2 million barrels up from December 2022. More specifically, the surge occurred despite an increase in refinery rates after a strong maintenance season, while it was primarily driven by an increase in Gulf Coast crude inventories, which climbed to their highest since April 2021. China and Europe have been reportedly the biggest importers of U.S crude in March. As Europe and Asia look for supplies, U.S. crude oil exports, which have been bolstered by a change in trade flows following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, will continue to rise this year providing support to the tanker market.
Europe’s demand for U.S. crude is forecast to remain elevated in the coming weeks, as we head toward the peak summer season for crude buying. Moving forward, we should expect to see a boost in the USG to Europe (TD25) Aframax freight rates, which eased earlier this month due to the increased vessel supply in the U.S. Gulf. In addition, following January’s record of 385,133 barrels per day (bpd) of US crude exports to Europe shipped on VLCCs, we should expect to see some support in VLCC freights, as medium and heavy sour grades from the U.S. to Europe are increasingly being booked on larger sizes, a trend established back in 2022.
In the meantime, market sentiment firmed following the release of OPEC+’s report last week, which raised the forecast of Chinese oil demand to 710,000 barrels per day (bpd), amid expectations of surging jet fuel and diesel consumption. China’s crude imports remain robust and above the 40 million MT mark for eight consecutive months since August 2022. In March, China’s crude oil imports are assessed at 47.27 million MT, a 4.4% m-o-m increase. Imports from the U.S. are set to hit a 2.5-year high, pivoted by a recovery in demand and competitive prices compared to Middle Eastern supplies. Crude imports from the U.S. are forecast to remain elevated in 2Q and 3Q, amid a widening WTI/Dubai, which last week widened to 10$ per barrel, the widest since August 2022. In the coming weeks, we could see continued Chinese purchases of crude because of rising domestic demand and amid a drop in domestic inventories following increased refining demand.
VLCC fundamentals are unquestionably the most positive, driving rates up, as they were the first to stabilize as a result of recovering Chinese demand. Robust U.S. exports to China have been particularly beneficial for VLCC vessels. VLCC freight rates hover well above their 2022 average, while ton-miles remain elevated, underpinned by strong demand in the USG to China (TD22) route.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 02 February 24
DRY BULK MARKET: THE DOWNWARD REVISION IN THE GROWTH OF CAPESIZE TONNE DAYS IN JANUARY WITH THE BCI DROPPING - MARIA BERTZELETOU
In the last week of January, the dry freight market sustained weakness in the Capesize segment, while the number of ballasters in the Southeast (SE ...
Friday, 02 February 24
COAL INDIA ACHIEVES NEARLY 80% OF ITS FY24 PRODUCTION TARGET IN TEN MONTHS - CNBCTV18
For the month of January, the company’s production grew by 9.1% from the same period last year to 78.4 Million Tonnes (MT), from 71.9 MT last ...
Thursday, 01 February 24
CHINA'S WIND, SOLAR CAPACITY TO OVERTAKE COAL IN 2024 - INDUSTRY BODY, REUTERS REPORTED
China’s installed wind and solar capacity is expected to overtake coal for the first time this year, according to industry forecasts.
&nb ...
Thursday, 01 February 24
ANTI-DEDUCTION CLAUSES: CAN A CHARTERER WITHHOLD HIRE WITHOUT AN OWNER'S CONSENT? - SKULD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Summary
In The Anna Dorothea, the Court found that where a charterparty provides that no deduction from hire may be m ...
Thursday, 01 February 24
INDIA REBUILDS COAL STOCKS TO ENSURE ELECTRIC RELIABILITY - REUTERS
India’s electricity supply is much more comfortable at the start of 2024 than in either 2023 or 2022 as coal production has ramped up and the ...
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- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- The University of Queensland
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
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