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Wednesday, 22 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The crude tanker market continues to gather momentum as we head towards the end of 1Q2023, against a backdrop of strong U.S. exports paired with a steady recovery of Chinese demand for crude.
U.S. crude exports are set to climb to 140.4 million barrels in March, versus 108.2 million barrels in February, amid a surge in domestic crude inventories, which currently hover close to 480,063 million barrels, almost 30,000 million barrels above the 5-year average and by 66.2 million barrels up from December 2022. More specifically, the surge occurred despite an increase in refinery rates after a strong maintenance season, while it was primarily driven by an increase in Gulf Coast crude inventories, which climbed to their highest since April 2021. China and Europe have been reportedly the biggest importers of U.S crude in March. As Europe and Asia look for supplies, U.S. crude oil exports, which have been bolstered by a change in trade flows following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, will continue to rise this year providing support to the tanker market.
Europe’s demand for U.S. crude is forecast to remain elevated in the coming weeks, as we head toward the peak summer season for crude buying. Moving forward, we should expect to see a boost in the USG to Europe (TD25) Aframax freight rates, which eased earlier this month due to the increased vessel supply in the U.S. Gulf. In addition, following January’s record of 385,133 barrels per day (bpd) of US crude exports to Europe shipped on VLCCs, we should expect to see some support in VLCC freights, as medium and heavy sour grades from the U.S. to Europe are increasingly being booked on larger sizes, a trend established back in 2022.
In the meantime, market sentiment firmed following the release of OPEC+’s report last week, which raised the forecast of Chinese oil demand to 710,000 barrels per day (bpd), amid expectations of surging jet fuel and diesel consumption. China’s crude imports remain robust and above the 40 million MT mark for eight consecutive months since August 2022. In March, China’s crude oil imports are assessed at 47.27 million MT, a 4.4% m-o-m increase. Imports from the U.S. are set to hit a 2.5-year high, pivoted by a recovery in demand and competitive prices compared to Middle Eastern supplies. Crude imports from the U.S. are forecast to remain elevated in 2Q and 3Q, amid a widening WTI/Dubai, which last week widened to 10$ per barrel, the widest since August 2022. In the coming weeks, we could see continued Chinese purchases of crude because of rising domestic demand and amid a drop in domestic inventories following increased refining demand.
VLCC fundamentals are unquestionably the most positive, driving rates up, as they were the first to stabilize as a result of recovering Chinese demand. Robust U.S. exports to China have been particularly beneficial for VLCC vessels. VLCC freight rates hover well above their 2022 average, while ton-miles remain elevated, underpinned by strong demand in the USG to China (TD22) route.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 14 November 23
CHINA'S BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE TURNS AWAY FROM COAL - WOOD MACKENZIE
Ambitious, contentious and big spending, China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is 10 years old. In that time, China has splashed more than U ...
Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and ...
Friday, 10 November 23
COAL USE AT U.S. POWER PLANTS CONTINUES DOWNWARD SPIRAL; FULL IMPACT ON MINES TO BE FELT IN 2024 - IEEFA
This year, the use of coal by the U.S.’s power producers has been so anemic that the fuel has not achieved a 20% market share in any month so ...
Friday, 10 November 23
INDIA: NATIONAL COAL INDEX RISES 3.83 POINTS IN SEPTEMBER AMID HIGHER DEMAND - LIVEMINT
The National Coal Index (NCI) rose 3.83 points to 143.91 in September amid growing demand for coal.
The union coal ministry on Tuesd ...
Thursday, 09 November 23
WE'RE PRODUCING TOO MUCH COAL, OIL AND GAS, REPORT SAYS - WSJ
World leaders pledged in 2015 to reduce emissions in a combined effort to limit climate change.
Now they are stepping up production ...
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- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- The University of Queensland
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Australian Coal Association
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
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