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Wednesday, 22 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The crude tanker market continues to gather momentum as we head towards the end of 1Q2023, against a backdrop of strong U.S. exports paired with a steady recovery of Chinese demand for crude.
U.S. crude exports are set to climb to 140.4 million barrels in March, versus 108.2 million barrels in February, amid a surge in domestic crude inventories, which currently hover close to 480,063 million barrels, almost 30,000 million barrels above the 5-year average and by 66.2 million barrels up from December 2022. More specifically, the surge occurred despite an increase in refinery rates after a strong maintenance season, while it was primarily driven by an increase in Gulf Coast crude inventories, which climbed to their highest since April 2021. China and Europe have been reportedly the biggest importers of U.S crude in March. As Europe and Asia look for supplies, U.S. crude oil exports, which have been bolstered by a change in trade flows following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, will continue to rise this year providing support to the tanker market.
Europe’s demand for U.S. crude is forecast to remain elevated in the coming weeks, as we head toward the peak summer season for crude buying. Moving forward, we should expect to see a boost in the USG to Europe (TD25) Aframax freight rates, which eased earlier this month due to the increased vessel supply in the U.S. Gulf. In addition, following January’s record of 385,133 barrels per day (bpd) of US crude exports to Europe shipped on VLCCs, we should expect to see some support in VLCC freights, as medium and heavy sour grades from the U.S. to Europe are increasingly being booked on larger sizes, a trend established back in 2022.
In the meantime, market sentiment firmed following the release of OPEC+’s report last week, which raised the forecast of Chinese oil demand to 710,000 barrels per day (bpd), amid expectations of surging jet fuel and diesel consumption. China’s crude imports remain robust and above the 40 million MT mark for eight consecutive months since August 2022. In March, China’s crude oil imports are assessed at 47.27 million MT, a 4.4% m-o-m increase. Imports from the U.S. are set to hit a 2.5-year high, pivoted by a recovery in demand and competitive prices compared to Middle Eastern supplies. Crude imports from the U.S. are forecast to remain elevated in 2Q and 3Q, amid a widening WTI/Dubai, which last week widened to 10$ per barrel, the widest since August 2022. In the coming weeks, we could see continued Chinese purchases of crude because of rising domestic demand and amid a drop in domestic inventories following increased refining demand.
VLCC fundamentals are unquestionably the most positive, driving rates up, as they were the first to stabilize as a result of recovering Chinese demand. Robust U.S. exports to China have been particularly beneficial for VLCC vessels. VLCC freight rates hover well above their 2022 average, while ton-miles remain elevated, underpinned by strong demand in the USG to China (TD22) route.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 23 May 23
INDIA: COAL OUTPUT UP 8.9%, SUPPLY RISES 11.7% IN APRIL - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
India’s coal production jumped 8.85% to 73.14 million tonne (MT) in April 2023 and the total coal despatch during the month went up 11.66% to ...
Tuesday, 23 May 23
CHINA COAL OUTPUT UP 4.5 PCT IN APRIL - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output posted stable expansion in April, official data showed.
The country produced 380 million tonnes of raw ...
Saturday, 20 May 23
NON-OPEC OIL SUPPLY DEVELOPMENT - OPEC
In 2022, non-OPEC supply is estimated to have increased by 1.9 mb/d y-o-y. Out of this, US liquids production increased by 1.2 mb/d, mainly on the ...
Saturday, 20 May 23
GLOBAL COAL TRADE HAS REALLY PICKED UP PACE IN RECENT MONTHS, NOW FULLY BACK TO PRE-COVID LEVELS - BANCHERO COSTA
Global coal trade has really picked up pace in recent months, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels. In Jan-Apr 2023, total global seaborne coa ...
Saturday, 20 May 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
India is one of the world's largest coal producers and one of the world's largest importers of coal. The country uses coal mainly for power ...
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- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PTC India Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
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