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Wednesday, 03 October 12
BARCLAYS'S PRICE FORECAST FOR NEWCASTLE COAL HAS BEEN WRITTEN DOWN
 “ The main story in the global coal markets has been the growth in supply, with all of the major exporters adding volumes into a market which we forecast will grow by 10.5% y/y in 2012. The US has been the leader, with exports increasing by 58% (up by 9 Mt) in H1 12, effectively exporting some of the energy surplus it had built up owing to a rise in shale gas extraction,” according to Barclays's Coal and freight quarterly report, that released last week.
The strong supply side has stimulated demand, with European takes up by some 7 Mt in the first four months as both the UK and Spain saw coal plant aggressively pushing out gas plant from the merit-orders. 2012 looks like it will be a high point for coal imports as environmental legislation should bring back some gas demand in 2013 and 2014, said Barclays's commodities researchers Trevor Sikorski, Miswin Mahesh & Sijin Cheng , in their latest market research report.
The Barclays’s report further pin pointed that, in the Pacific Basin, demand growth focused on China, which saw imports rise by 29% y/y, despite both very healthy additions to domestic production and a marked slowing of growth rates. The result of such high imports against a relatively modest demand background was eventually heavy pressure on Chinese domestic prices, a big build in inventories, and periods where additional imports have been turned away on contract default.
Barclays further said in its analysis report, global steam coal markets have softened since the start of the year (by around 18%). However, Barclays noted that over the last few months European delivered coal has been broadly stable at around 90 $/t. At this level, prices are now hovering around the marginal costs of the highest-cost exporters (Russia and the US) in the Atlantic Basin, and there are reports (McCloskey) that a number of Indonesian producers are starting to curtail production. While this is likely to limit potential downside, the inventory builds and modest Pacific demand side suggest limited upside, barring a significant weather or supply-side event.
Barclays revised its price outlook for CIF ARA forecasts and FOB Richards Bay prices by 1-3%.
Barclays’s price forecast for Newcastle coal has also been written down the most to average 96 $/t in 2012 (down 8.5% from their previous forecast of 105 $/t) and 94 $/t in 2013 (down 13% from 108 $/t), reflecting the impact of a slowdown in Chinese growth and the China’s current healthy inventories of coal.
Last week an Indonesian securites, Bahana Securities forecasted 2013 coal prices at USD 85 / ton, around US$ 12.00 or 12.37 percent below its 2012 price forecasts. Bahana believes upside potential on coal price remains limited due to weak coal demand. Hence, Bahana maintains its 2012 average coal benchmark price at USD 97/ton, and forecasted prices for 2013 far lesser than 2012 price.
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Saturday, 25 March 23
COAL INDIA HAS STRONG CASE TO INCREASE PRICES, TALKS ON: CMD AGRAWAL - BUSINESS STANDARD
Coal India (CIL) Chairman and Managing Director Pramod Agrawal said on Monday there is a “strong case” for increasing coal prices, and ...
Saturday, 25 March 23
ASIAN CRUDE PALM OIL WATCH 1Q23 - FITCH RATINGS
Malaysian benchmark crude palm oil (CPO) spot prices have averaged around USD915 per tonne (t) so far in 1Q23, sharply lower than the average of ar ...
Saturday, 25 March 23
INDONESIA’S COAL EXPORT INCREASED BY 21.0% YOY TO 388.4 MLN T IN 2022 - BANCHERO COSTA
After a slow start in the first quarter, global coal trade has really picked up pace last year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels. In the f ...
Saturday, 25 March 23
GLOBAL LNG-ASIA SPOT PRICES SLIP AS WEAK NORTHERN DEMAND REMAINS - REUTERS
Asian spot prices of liquefied natural gas (LNG) declined this week, falling to a 21-month low, as weak demand in the northeast Asia region continu ...
Wednesday, 22 March 23
OIL PRICE FALL SPECULATIVE, TO HIT $140 BY YEAR-END -ANDURAND: REUTERS
The recent fall in oil prices due to banking jitters is speculative and oil will hit $140 a barrel by the end of the year, hedge fund manager Pierr ...
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- Planning Commission, India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
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