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Wednesday, 01 March 23
THE DECLINE IN THE COAL PRICE SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THE YEAR HAS BEEN SIGNIFICANT - INTERMODAL
 Last week, the front-month API2 future rose by 3.5%, but since the beginning of the year the future has fallen by 39% to $136.65/t, while the Newcastle coal future has fallen by almost 50% since the start of 2023 to $196.5/t.
There are a number of reasons for these declines in the two benchmarks, but the main one is competition from natural gas prices, which have reached levels below €50/MW, currently standing at €47.70/MW and down more than 59% since the start of the year. Indicative of this situation, the clean dark spread in Germany, which measures the difference between the wholesale price of electricity and the cost of the coal used to generate that electricity, has reached a multi-year low of -€18.77/MWh, implying that it is not profitable to use coal. Another reason for the fall in prices is the weather. The winter has been milder than expected in both Europe and Japan, meaning that less coal has been used for heating. Although colder weeks are expected, the end of the winter is near. The milder winter is also reflected in the ARA region inventories, which are now almost double the level of a year ago.
Looking at seaborne trade, the EU and UK imported 84.3 Mt of thermal coal in Jan-Nov 2023, 4.6 Mt more (+5.7%) than in the same period last year, while coking coal imports were 29.7 Mt, 8.1% lower than last year. The trade is solid, but the routes have changed. Russia is no longer the top supplier of coking coal, with its share falling from 68% in 2021 to just 4% in 2022. Other countries such as Colombia, the United States, South Africa, Australia and Indonesia have stepped up, increasing the distance travelled to reach Europe.
Although Europe has dumped Russia as a major supplier of coal, Russia has managed to sell it elsewhere. China, for example, bought both thermal and met coal from Russia, benefiting from discounts. In general, China significantly reduced its coal imports by -41 Mt (-15% y-o-y), due to increased Chinese production and some government price controls to limit import demand. Besides China, other countries such as India, Turkey and South Korea were the main destinations for Russian coal.
Looking ahead, the decline in the coal price since the beginning of the year has been significant and it is worth looking at some of the factors that can move the price of coal. First and foremost, the war in Ukraine has the potential to keep supply and demand tight in the near term. If the war continues to rage and coal importers stay away from Russian coal, tone-mile demand is likely to rise, which can further boost the dry bulk market. The same applies if gas prices rise again and coal becomes the fuel of choice for power generation. In fact, the front-year clean dark spread is expected to reach +18.77/MWh, meaning that coal will become more profitable to burn for power generation, thus increasing demand for it.
By Fotis Kanatas
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 02 March 23
DRY BULK MARKET: THE WAY CHINA GOES, SO GOES THE MARKET - BIMCO
We expect demand growth within the 1.5-2.5% range in 2023, driven by China’s economic recovery. Improvements in consumer sentiment should hel ...
Thursday, 02 March 23
INDIA, CHINA DEMAND BOOST LOW-RANK THERMAL COAL PRICES IN ASIA - RUSSELL, REUTERS
Signs of stronger import demand from India have arrested the decline in price of the thermal coal grades most commonly sought by the world’s ...
Thursday, 02 March 23
INDIA CHEERS THE RETURN OF ‘KING COAL’ AS INDUSTRY SEES BUOYANT FUTURE - REUTERS
India’s coal industry celebrated the return of its major conference after a three-year pandemic hiatus by presenting a bullish view of demand ...
Wednesday, 01 March 23
GEO CONNECT ASIA RETURNS IN MARCH TO ACCELERATE THE REGION’S GEOSPATIAL AND LOCATION INTELLIGENCE CAPABILITIES
Press Release: The third edition of GCA will be held in conjunction with Digital Construction Asia and the inaugural Drones Asia – an event d ...
Sunday, 26 February 23
MAWANI AND JEDDAH CHAMBER SIGN AN AGREEMENT TO BUILD INTEGRATED LOGISTICS PARK
Press Release: The Saudi Ports Authority (Mawani) and Jeddah Chamber of Commerce and Industry have today inked an agreement to set up an integrated ...
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- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Australian Coal Association
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- The University of Queensland
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
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