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Wednesday, 01 March 23
THE DECLINE IN THE COAL PRICE SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THE YEAR HAS BEEN SIGNIFICANT - INTERMODAL
 Last week, the front-month API2 future rose by 3.5%, but since the beginning of the year the future has fallen by 39% to $136.65/t, while the Newcastle coal future has fallen by almost 50% since the start of 2023 to $196.5/t.
There are a number of reasons for these declines in the two benchmarks, but the main one is competition from natural gas prices, which have reached levels below €50/MW, currently standing at €47.70/MW and down more than 59% since the start of the year. Indicative of this situation, the clean dark spread in Germany, which measures the difference between the wholesale price of electricity and the cost of the coal used to generate that electricity, has reached a multi-year low of -€18.77/MWh, implying that it is not profitable to use coal. Another reason for the fall in prices is the weather. The winter has been milder than expected in both Europe and Japan, meaning that less coal has been used for heating. Although colder weeks are expected, the end of the winter is near. The milder winter is also reflected in the ARA region inventories, which are now almost double the level of a year ago.
Looking at seaborne trade, the EU and UK imported 84.3 Mt of thermal coal in Jan-Nov 2023, 4.6 Mt more (+5.7%) than in the same period last year, while coking coal imports were 29.7 Mt, 8.1% lower than last year. The trade is solid, but the routes have changed. Russia is no longer the top supplier of coking coal, with its share falling from 68% in 2021 to just 4% in 2022. Other countries such as Colombia, the United States, South Africa, Australia and Indonesia have stepped up, increasing the distance travelled to reach Europe.
Although Europe has dumped Russia as a major supplier of coal, Russia has managed to sell it elsewhere. China, for example, bought both thermal and met coal from Russia, benefiting from discounts. In general, China significantly reduced its coal imports by -41 Mt (-15% y-o-y), due to increased Chinese production and some government price controls to limit import demand. Besides China, other countries such as India, Turkey and South Korea were the main destinations for Russian coal.
Looking ahead, the decline in the coal price since the beginning of the year has been significant and it is worth looking at some of the factors that can move the price of coal. First and foremost, the war in Ukraine has the potential to keep supply and demand tight in the near term. If the war continues to rage and coal importers stay away from Russian coal, tone-mile demand is likely to rise, which can further boost the dry bulk market. The same applies if gas prices rise again and coal becomes the fuel of choice for power generation. In fact, the front-year clean dark spread is expected to reach +18.77/MWh, meaning that coal will become more profitable to burn for power generation, thus increasing demand for it.
By Fotis Kanatas
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 02 March 23
DRY BULK MARKET: THE WAY CHINA GOES, SO GOES THE MARKET - BIMCO
We expect demand growth within the 1.5-2.5% range in 2023, driven by China’s economic recovery. Improvements in consumer sentiment should hel ...
Thursday, 02 March 23
INDIA, CHINA DEMAND BOOST LOW-RANK THERMAL COAL PRICES IN ASIA - RUSSELL, REUTERS
Signs of stronger import demand from India have arrested the decline in price of the thermal coal grades most commonly sought by the world’s ...
Thursday, 02 March 23
INDIA CHEERS THE RETURN OF ‘KING COAL’ AS INDUSTRY SEES BUOYANT FUTURE - REUTERS
India’s coal industry celebrated the return of its major conference after a three-year pandemic hiatus by presenting a bullish view of demand ...
Wednesday, 01 March 23
GEO CONNECT ASIA RETURNS IN MARCH TO ACCELERATE THE REGION’S GEOSPATIAL AND LOCATION INTELLIGENCE CAPABILITIES
Press Release: The third edition of GCA will be held in conjunction with Digital Construction Asia and the inaugural Drones Asia – an event d ...
Sunday, 26 February 23
MAWANI AND JEDDAH CHAMBER SIGN AN AGREEMENT TO BUILD INTEGRATED LOGISTICS PARK
Press Release: The Saudi Ports Authority (Mawani) and Jeddah Chamber of Commerce and Industry have today inked an agreement to set up an integrated ...
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- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Planning Commission, India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- The University of Queensland
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- MS Steel International - UAE
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
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