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Wednesday, 01 March 23
THE DECLINE IN THE COAL PRICE SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THE YEAR HAS BEEN SIGNIFICANT - INTERMODAL
 Last week, the front-month API2 future rose by 3.5%, but since the beginning of the year the future has fallen by 39% to $136.65/t, while the Newcastle coal future has fallen by almost 50% since the start of 2023 to $196.5/t.
There are a number of reasons for these declines in the two benchmarks, but the main one is competition from natural gas prices, which have reached levels below €50/MW, currently standing at €47.70/MW and down more than 59% since the start of the year. Indicative of this situation, the clean dark spread in Germany, which measures the difference between the wholesale price of electricity and the cost of the coal used to generate that electricity, has reached a multi-year low of -€18.77/MWh, implying that it is not profitable to use coal. Another reason for the fall in prices is the weather. The winter has been milder than expected in both Europe and Japan, meaning that less coal has been used for heating. Although colder weeks are expected, the end of the winter is near. The milder winter is also reflected in the ARA region inventories, which are now almost double the level of a year ago.
Looking at seaborne trade, the EU and UK imported 84.3 Mt of thermal coal in Jan-Nov 2023, 4.6 Mt more (+5.7%) than in the same period last year, while coking coal imports were 29.7 Mt, 8.1% lower than last year. The trade is solid, but the routes have changed. Russia is no longer the top supplier of coking coal, with its share falling from 68% in 2021 to just 4% in 2022. Other countries such as Colombia, the United States, South Africa, Australia and Indonesia have stepped up, increasing the distance travelled to reach Europe.
Although Europe has dumped Russia as a major supplier of coal, Russia has managed to sell it elsewhere. China, for example, bought both thermal and met coal from Russia, benefiting from discounts. In general, China significantly reduced its coal imports by -41 Mt (-15% y-o-y), due to increased Chinese production and some government price controls to limit import demand. Besides China, other countries such as India, Turkey and South Korea were the main destinations for Russian coal.
Looking ahead, the decline in the coal price since the beginning of the year has been significant and it is worth looking at some of the factors that can move the price of coal. First and foremost, the war in Ukraine has the potential to keep supply and demand tight in the near term. If the war continues to rage and coal importers stay away from Russian coal, tone-mile demand is likely to rise, which can further boost the dry bulk market. The same applies if gas prices rise again and coal becomes the fuel of choice for power generation. In fact, the front-year clean dark spread is expected to reach +18.77/MWh, meaning that coal will become more profitable to burn for power generation, thus increasing demand for it.
By Fotis Kanatas
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 22 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The crude tanker market continues to gather momentum as we head towards the end of 1Q2023, against a backdrop of strong U.S. exports paired with a ...
Wednesday, 22 March 23
WILL LOWER GAS PRICES SPARK SWITCHING IN EUROPE AND ASIA?
Record high prices devastated demand for gas and LNG across Asia and Europe last year. But with prices falling, companies are starting to re-evalua ...
Monday, 20 March 23
NTPC MULLS 5.4 MILLION TONNES COAL IMPORT IN FIRST HALF OF 2023-24: PTI
State-run power giant NTPC is planning to import around 5.4 million tonnes of coal to meet the supply shortage during the first half 2023-24 fiscal ...
Monday, 20 March 23
S. AFRICA’S EXXARO RESOURCES SAYS COAL PRICES COOLING OFF - REUTERS
South Africa’s Exxaro Resources on Thursday posted a 28% jump in 2022 profit after seeing average coal prices surge more than 150%, but warne ...
Saturday, 18 March 23
RUSSIAN LNG EXPORTS TO EUROPE REMAIN HIGH - VESSELS VALUE
Russian LNG exports to Europe remained at very high levels in February at 3.6 million CBM, following a 13 month high in January of 4.1 million CBM. ...
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- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Planning Commission, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PTC India Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Australian Coal Association
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
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