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Wednesday, 01 March 23
THE DECLINE IN THE COAL PRICE SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THE YEAR HAS BEEN SIGNIFICANT - INTERMODAL
 Last week, the front-month API2 future rose by 3.5%, but since the beginning of the year the future has fallen by 39% to $136.65/t, while the Newcastle coal future has fallen by almost 50% since the start of 2023 to $196.5/t.
There are a number of reasons for these declines in the two benchmarks, but the main one is competition from natural gas prices, which have reached levels below €50/MW, currently standing at €47.70/MW and down more than 59% since the start of the year. Indicative of this situation, the clean dark spread in Germany, which measures the difference between the wholesale price of electricity and the cost of the coal used to generate that electricity, has reached a multi-year low of -€18.77/MWh, implying that it is not profitable to use coal. Another reason for the fall in prices is the weather. The winter has been milder than expected in both Europe and Japan, meaning that less coal has been used for heating. Although colder weeks are expected, the end of the winter is near. The milder winter is also reflected in the ARA region inventories, which are now almost double the level of a year ago.
Looking at seaborne trade, the EU and UK imported 84.3 Mt of thermal coal in Jan-Nov 2023, 4.6 Mt more (+5.7%) than in the same period last year, while coking coal imports were 29.7 Mt, 8.1% lower than last year. The trade is solid, but the routes have changed. Russia is no longer the top supplier of coking coal, with its share falling from 68% in 2021 to just 4% in 2022. Other countries such as Colombia, the United States, South Africa, Australia and Indonesia have stepped up, increasing the distance travelled to reach Europe.
Although Europe has dumped Russia as a major supplier of coal, Russia has managed to sell it elsewhere. China, for example, bought both thermal and met coal from Russia, benefiting from discounts. In general, China significantly reduced its coal imports by -41 Mt (-15% y-o-y), due to increased Chinese production and some government price controls to limit import demand. Besides China, other countries such as India, Turkey and South Korea were the main destinations for Russian coal.
Looking ahead, the decline in the coal price since the beginning of the year has been significant and it is worth looking at some of the factors that can move the price of coal. First and foremost, the war in Ukraine has the potential to keep supply and demand tight in the near term. If the war continues to rage and coal importers stay away from Russian coal, tone-mile demand is likely to rise, which can further boost the dry bulk market. The same applies if gas prices rise again and coal becomes the fuel of choice for power generation. In fact, the front-year clean dark spread is expected to reach +18.77/MWh, meaning that coal will become more profitable to burn for power generation, thus increasing demand for it.
By Fotis Kanatas
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 11 April 23
OIL RISES ON CHINA STIMULUS EXPECTATIONS, WEAKER DOLLAR - REUTERS
Oil prices rose on Tuesday on expectations of potential economic stimulus by China, healthy demand in the rest of Asia and a drop in U.S. crude sto ...
Sunday, 09 April 23
CHINA’S BUSINESS INCOME REBOUND POINTS TO IMPROVING ECONOMY: OFFICIAL - XINHUA
Chinese businesses have posted a strong rebound in sales revenue since the beginning of this year in the latest signal of an improving economy.
...
Sunday, 09 April 23
COAL INDIA TO BOOST SUPPLIES TO INDUSTRIES AS UTILITIES’ INVENTORIES RISE - REUTERS
Coal India Ltd will increase supplies to industries, the world’s largest coal miner said on Wednesday as fuel inventories at utilities run by ...
Thursday, 06 April 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
LNG Current Supply/Demand Dynamics
This year, LNG supply will likely exceed demand, so prices will need to decline to levels that will encourag ...
Sunday, 26 March 23
EUROPE’S RUSH TO LNG COULD TURN INTO 'WORLD’S MOST EXPENSIVE AND UNNECESSARY INSURANCE POLICY'- CNBC
Europe’s rapid buildout of liquefied natural gas infrastructure is on track to far exceed demand by the end of the decade, according to new r ...
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- Minerals Council of Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Planning Commission, India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
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