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Wednesday, 01 March 23
THE DECLINE IN THE COAL PRICE SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THE YEAR HAS BEEN SIGNIFICANT - INTERMODAL
 Last week, the front-month API2 future rose by 3.5%, but since the beginning of the year the future has fallen by 39% to $136.65/t, while the Newcastle coal future has fallen by almost 50% since the start of 2023 to $196.5/t.
There are a number of reasons for these declines in the two benchmarks, but the main one is competition from natural gas prices, which have reached levels below €50/MW, currently standing at €47.70/MW and down more than 59% since the start of the year. Indicative of this situation, the clean dark spread in Germany, which measures the difference between the wholesale price of electricity and the cost of the coal used to generate that electricity, has reached a multi-year low of -€18.77/MWh, implying that it is not profitable to use coal. Another reason for the fall in prices is the weather. The winter has been milder than expected in both Europe and Japan, meaning that less coal has been used for heating. Although colder weeks are expected, the end of the winter is near. The milder winter is also reflected in the ARA region inventories, which are now almost double the level of a year ago.
Looking at seaborne trade, the EU and UK imported 84.3 Mt of thermal coal in Jan-Nov 2023, 4.6 Mt more (+5.7%) than in the same period last year, while coking coal imports were 29.7 Mt, 8.1% lower than last year. The trade is solid, but the routes have changed. Russia is no longer the top supplier of coking coal, with its share falling from 68% in 2021 to just 4% in 2022. Other countries such as Colombia, the United States, South Africa, Australia and Indonesia have stepped up, increasing the distance travelled to reach Europe.
Although Europe has dumped Russia as a major supplier of coal, Russia has managed to sell it elsewhere. China, for example, bought both thermal and met coal from Russia, benefiting from discounts. In general, China significantly reduced its coal imports by -41 Mt (-15% y-o-y), due to increased Chinese production and some government price controls to limit import demand. Besides China, other countries such as India, Turkey and South Korea were the main destinations for Russian coal.
Looking ahead, the decline in the coal price since the beginning of the year has been significant and it is worth looking at some of the factors that can move the price of coal. First and foremost, the war in Ukraine has the potential to keep supply and demand tight in the near term. If the war continues to rage and coal importers stay away from Russian coal, tone-mile demand is likely to rise, which can further boost the dry bulk market. The same applies if gas prices rise again and coal becomes the fuel of choice for power generation. In fact, the front-year clean dark spread is expected to reach +18.77/MWh, meaning that coal will become more profitable to burn for power generation, thus increasing demand for it.
By Fotis Kanatas
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 16 April 23
CHINA JUGGLES FOUR MAJOR ECONOMIC CHANGES IN 2023 - WOOD MACKENZIE
Change is afoot in China. Economic growth is slowing, while rising political tensions between China and the US, coupled with global supply chain re ...
Sunday, 16 April 23
CHINA'S MARCH COAL IMPORTS JUMP TO 3-YEAR HIGH - REUTERS
China’s coal imports surged in March to their highest in any month over the past three years as utilities increased purchases on expectations ...
Sunday, 16 April 23
OPEC KEEPS WORLD OIL DEMAND GROWTH OUTLOOK UNCHANGED
The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) declined in March by $3.43, or 4.2%, m-o-m to average $78.45/b. The ICE Brent first-month contract fell by $4.33, o ...
Sunday, 16 April 23
CHEAPER SPOT LNG PRICES TEMPT SOME ASIAN BUYERS AMID SUPPLY GAINS - REUTERS
Cheaper spot prices for liquefied natural gas (LNG) are luring price-sensitive buyers back in Asia, with China and India recording rising imports i ...
Tuesday, 11 April 23
COAL USE CLIMBS WORLDWIDE DESPITE PROMISES TO SLASH IT - AAP
The burning of coal for electricity, cement, steel and other uses went up in 2022 despite global promises to phase down the fuel that is the bigges ...
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- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Australian Coal Association
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- The University of Queensland
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
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