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Wednesday, 01 March 23
THE DECLINE IN THE COAL PRICE SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THE YEAR HAS BEEN SIGNIFICANT - INTERMODAL
 Last week, the front-month API2 future rose by 3.5%, but since the beginning of the year the future has fallen by 39% to $136.65/t, while the Newcastle coal future has fallen by almost 50% since the start of 2023 to $196.5/t.
There are a number of reasons for these declines in the two benchmarks, but the main one is competition from natural gas prices, which have reached levels below €50/MW, currently standing at €47.70/MW and down more than 59% since the start of the year. Indicative of this situation, the clean dark spread in Germany, which measures the difference between the wholesale price of electricity and the cost of the coal used to generate that electricity, has reached a multi-year low of -€18.77/MWh, implying that it is not profitable to use coal. Another reason for the fall in prices is the weather. The winter has been milder than expected in both Europe and Japan, meaning that less coal has been used for heating. Although colder weeks are expected, the end of the winter is near. The milder winter is also reflected in the ARA region inventories, which are now almost double the level of a year ago.
Looking at seaborne trade, the EU and UK imported 84.3 Mt of thermal coal in Jan-Nov 2023, 4.6 Mt more (+5.7%) than in the same period last year, while coking coal imports were 29.7 Mt, 8.1% lower than last year. The trade is solid, but the routes have changed. Russia is no longer the top supplier of coking coal, with its share falling from 68% in 2021 to just 4% in 2022. Other countries such as Colombia, the United States, South Africa, Australia and Indonesia have stepped up, increasing the distance travelled to reach Europe.
Although Europe has dumped Russia as a major supplier of coal, Russia has managed to sell it elsewhere. China, for example, bought both thermal and met coal from Russia, benefiting from discounts. In general, China significantly reduced its coal imports by -41 Mt (-15% y-o-y), due to increased Chinese production and some government price controls to limit import demand. Besides China, other countries such as India, Turkey and South Korea were the main destinations for Russian coal.
Looking ahead, the decline in the coal price since the beginning of the year has been significant and it is worth looking at some of the factors that can move the price of coal. First and foremost, the war in Ukraine has the potential to keep supply and demand tight in the near term. If the war continues to rage and coal importers stay away from Russian coal, tone-mile demand is likely to rise, which can further boost the dry bulk market. The same applies if gas prices rise again and coal becomes the fuel of choice for power generation. In fact, the front-year clean dark spread is expected to reach +18.77/MWh, meaning that coal will become more profitable to burn for power generation, thus increasing demand for it.
By Fotis Kanatas
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 23 May 23
INDIA: COAL OUTPUT UP 8.9%, SUPPLY RISES 11.7% IN APRIL - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
India’s coal production jumped 8.85% to 73.14 million tonne (MT) in April 2023 and the total coal despatch during the month went up 11.66% to ...
Tuesday, 23 May 23
CHINA COAL OUTPUT UP 4.5 PCT IN APRIL - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output posted stable expansion in April, official data showed.
The country produced 380 million tonnes of raw ...
Saturday, 20 May 23
NON-OPEC OIL SUPPLY DEVELOPMENT - OPEC
In 2022, non-OPEC supply is estimated to have increased by 1.9 mb/d y-o-y. Out of this, US liquids production increased by 1.2 mb/d, mainly on the ...
Saturday, 20 May 23
GLOBAL COAL TRADE HAS REALLY PICKED UP PACE IN RECENT MONTHS, NOW FULLY BACK TO PRE-COVID LEVELS - BANCHERO COSTA
Global coal trade has really picked up pace in recent months, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels. In Jan-Apr 2023, total global seaborne coa ...
Saturday, 20 May 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
India is one of the world's largest coal producers and one of the world's largest importers of coal. The country uses coal mainly for power ...
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- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PTC India Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- White Energy Company Limited
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Planning Commission, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
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