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Thursday, 02 March 23
DRY BULK MARKET: THE WAY CHINA GOES, SO GOES THE MARKET - BIMCO
 We expect demand growth within the 1.5-2.5% range in 2023, driven by China’s economic recovery. Improvements in consumer sentiment should help solve the country’s real estate crisis and boost bulk demand.
However, demand growth could weaken to 1-2% in 2024 due to an expected reduction in coal shipments. Import demand should fall as India and China continue to boost domestic mining and Europe transitions away from fossil fuels.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates global economic growth of 2.9% in 2023 and 3.1% in 2024. The Chinese economy is now estimated to grow by 5.2% in 2023, a 0.8 percentage point increase over the IMF’s previous forecast.
The dry bulk fleet is forecast to grow by 2.7% in 2023 and by 2.0% in 2024. Deliveries remain limited amid a small orderbook at 7.5% of the fleet.
Supply is estimated to grow by 0.5-1.5% less than the fleet in 2023 and 2024 due to lower speeds caused by compliance with EEXI and CII regulations.
The supply/demand balance should improve in 2023, although risks will remain in 2024. We expect rates to start recovering as demand picks up in China.
Capesizes should benefit from a recovery in iron ore demand, while panamax ships are most exposed to a drop in coal shipments.
We expect freight rates to improve from the second half of 2023 onwards as a pick-up in demand in China drives an improvement in the supply/demand balance. Even though we expect demand growth to slow in 2024 as Europe cuts coal shipments and import demand from India and China stabilises, supply is still expected to grow at a slower pace and market conditions may still improve marginally. The bulk carrier fleet should grow by 2.7% in 2023 and by 2.0% in 2024 amid limited deliveries. Additionally, we expect environmental regulations to reduce supply growth by 0.5-1.5% as sailing speeds fall. Overall, supply is expected to increase by 1-2% in 2023 and by 0.5- 1.5% in 2024, while demand growth is predicted at 1.5-2.5% in 2023 and 1-2% in 2024. The expected recovery in iron ore shipments should result in a welcome rebound in capesize market conditions that have suffered from the low iron ore volumes throughout 2022. Conversely, the expected loss of coal shipments in 2024 could be a cause for concern for panamax ships since coal accounts for over half of their volume. The predicted improvement in the overall supply/demand balance is quite marginal as demand will outpace supply by only 0.5 pp in both 2023 and 2024. As such, the improvement is still vulnerable to a variety of risks that could still affect the demand outlook for 2023 and 2024. A slower-than-anticipated economic recovery in China or a delayed resolution of the real estate crisis could have a direct and significant impact on demand, thus impacting overall conditions for the dry bulk market.
Source: BIMCO
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Thursday, 02 March 23
INDIA, CHINA DEMAND BOOST LOW-RANK THERMAL COAL PRICES IN ASIA - RUSSELL, REUTERS
Signs of stronger import demand from India have arrested the decline in price of the thermal coal grades most commonly sought by the world’s ...
Thursday, 02 March 23
INDIA CHEERS THE RETURN OF ‘KING COAL’ AS INDUSTRY SEES BUOYANT FUTURE - REUTERS
India’s coal industry celebrated the return of its major conference after a three-year pandemic hiatus by presenting a bullish view of demand ...
Wednesday, 01 March 23
GEO CONNECT ASIA RETURNS IN MARCH TO ACCELERATE THE REGION’S GEOSPATIAL AND LOCATION INTELLIGENCE CAPABILITIES
Press Release: The third edition of GCA will be held in conjunction with Digital Construction Asia and the inaugural Drones Asia – an event d ...
Wednesday, 01 March 23
THE DECLINE IN THE COAL PRICE SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THE YEAR HAS BEEN SIGNIFICANT - INTERMODAL
Last week, the front-month API2 future rose by 3.5%, but since the beginning of the year the future has fallen by 39% to $136.65/t, while the Newca ...
Sunday, 26 February 23
MAWANI AND JEDDAH CHAMBER SIGN AN AGREEMENT TO BUILD INTEGRATED LOGISTICS PARK
Press Release: The Saudi Ports Authority (Mawani) and Jeddah Chamber of Commerce and Industry have today inked an agreement to set up an integrated ...
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- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Australian Coal Association
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
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