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Thursday, 02 March 23
DRY BULK MARKET: THE WAY CHINA GOES, SO GOES THE MARKET - BIMCO
 We expect demand growth within the 1.5-2.5% range in 2023, driven by China’s economic recovery. Improvements in consumer sentiment should help solve the country’s real estate crisis and boost bulk demand.
However, demand growth could weaken to 1-2% in 2024 due to an expected reduction in coal shipments. Import demand should fall as India and China continue to boost domestic mining and Europe transitions away from fossil fuels.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates global economic growth of 2.9% in 2023 and 3.1% in 2024. The Chinese economy is now estimated to grow by 5.2% in 2023, a 0.8 percentage point increase over the IMF’s previous forecast.
The dry bulk fleet is forecast to grow by 2.7% in 2023 and by 2.0% in 2024. Deliveries remain limited amid a small orderbook at 7.5% of the fleet.
Supply is estimated to grow by 0.5-1.5% less than the fleet in 2023 and 2024 due to lower speeds caused by compliance with EEXI and CII regulations.
The supply/demand balance should improve in 2023, although risks will remain in 2024. We expect rates to start recovering as demand picks up in China.
Capesizes should benefit from a recovery in iron ore demand, while panamax ships are most exposed to a drop in coal shipments.
We expect freight rates to improve from the second half of 2023 onwards as a pick-up in demand in China drives an improvement in the supply/demand balance. Even though we expect demand growth to slow in 2024 as Europe cuts coal shipments and import demand from India and China stabilises, supply is still expected to grow at a slower pace and market conditions may still improve marginally. The bulk carrier fleet should grow by 2.7% in 2023 and by 2.0% in 2024 amid limited deliveries. Additionally, we expect environmental regulations to reduce supply growth by 0.5-1.5% as sailing speeds fall. Overall, supply is expected to increase by 1-2% in 2023 and by 0.5- 1.5% in 2024, while demand growth is predicted at 1.5-2.5% in 2023 and 1-2% in 2024. The expected recovery in iron ore shipments should result in a welcome rebound in capesize market conditions that have suffered from the low iron ore volumes throughout 2022. Conversely, the expected loss of coal shipments in 2024 could be a cause for concern for panamax ships since coal accounts for over half of their volume. The predicted improvement in the overall supply/demand balance is quite marginal as demand will outpace supply by only 0.5 pp in both 2023 and 2024. As such, the improvement is still vulnerable to a variety of risks that could still affect the demand outlook for 2023 and 2024. A slower-than-anticipated economic recovery in China or a delayed resolution of the real estate crisis could have a direct and significant impact on demand, thus impacting overall conditions for the dry bulk market.
Source: BIMCO
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Saturday, 18 February 23
2023 MARINE FUEL MARKET PREDICTIONS - JOHN BERGMAN, AURAMARINE
The drive for decarbonisation we witnessed in 2022 has continued into 2023, demonstrating the shipping’s industry positive strides in the fas ...
Saturday, 28 January 23
COAL GROWTH BLIP NOT TO BE REPEATED - BALTIC EXCHANGE
As 2022 drew to a close, global coal demand looked set to end the year just 1.2% up on the previous year. But that small increase was enough to pus ...
Thursday, 26 January 23
CHINA'S COAL OUTPUT INCREASES IN DECEMBER 2022 - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output posted stable expansion in December 2022, official data showed.
The country produced 400 million tonne ...
Thursday, 26 January 23
COKING COAL NARROWS THE GAP ON THERMAL AS CHINA REOPENS - REUTERS
The premium of high-grade thermal coal over coking coal in Asia is shrinking as China’s re-opening and ending of a ban on imports from Austra ...
Thursday, 26 January 23
AUSTRALIA'S CORONADO GLOBAL SEES COAL PRICES RISING ON RESUMING CHINA IMPORTS - REUTERS
Australia’s Coronado Global Resources said on Tuesday resuming metallurgical coal imports to China would likely push sea-borne coal prices hi ...
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- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- The University of Queensland
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
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