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Thursday, 02 March 23
DRY BULK MARKET: THE WAY CHINA GOES, SO GOES THE MARKET - BIMCO
 We expect demand growth within the 1.5-2.5% range in 2023, driven by China’s economic recovery. Improvements in consumer sentiment should help solve the country’s real estate crisis and boost bulk demand.
However, demand growth could weaken to 1-2% in 2024 due to an expected reduction in coal shipments. Import demand should fall as India and China continue to boost domestic mining and Europe transitions away from fossil fuels.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates global economic growth of 2.9% in 2023 and 3.1% in 2024. The Chinese economy is now estimated to grow by 5.2% in 2023, a 0.8 percentage point increase over the IMF’s previous forecast.
The dry bulk fleet is forecast to grow by 2.7% in 2023 and by 2.0% in 2024. Deliveries remain limited amid a small orderbook at 7.5% of the fleet.
Supply is estimated to grow by 0.5-1.5% less than the fleet in 2023 and 2024 due to lower speeds caused by compliance with EEXI and CII regulations.
The supply/demand balance should improve in 2023, although risks will remain in 2024. We expect rates to start recovering as demand picks up in China.
Capesizes should benefit from a recovery in iron ore demand, while panamax ships are most exposed to a drop in coal shipments.
We expect freight rates to improve from the second half of 2023 onwards as a pick-up in demand in China drives an improvement in the supply/demand balance. Even though we expect demand growth to slow in 2024 as Europe cuts coal shipments and import demand from India and China stabilises, supply is still expected to grow at a slower pace and market conditions may still improve marginally. The bulk carrier fleet should grow by 2.7% in 2023 and by 2.0% in 2024 amid limited deliveries. Additionally, we expect environmental regulations to reduce supply growth by 0.5-1.5% as sailing speeds fall. Overall, supply is expected to increase by 1-2% in 2023 and by 0.5- 1.5% in 2024, while demand growth is predicted at 1.5-2.5% in 2023 and 1-2% in 2024. The expected recovery in iron ore shipments should result in a welcome rebound in capesize market conditions that have suffered from the low iron ore volumes throughout 2022. Conversely, the expected loss of coal shipments in 2024 could be a cause for concern for panamax ships since coal accounts for over half of their volume. The predicted improvement in the overall supply/demand balance is quite marginal as demand will outpace supply by only 0.5 pp in both 2023 and 2024. As such, the improvement is still vulnerable to a variety of risks that could still affect the demand outlook for 2023 and 2024. A slower-than-anticipated economic recovery in China or a delayed resolution of the real estate crisis could have a direct and significant impact on demand, thus impacting overall conditions for the dry bulk market.
Source: BIMCO
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Monday, 23 January 23
CHINA'S MAJOR COAL-PRODUCING PROVINCE ACCELERATES DIGITAL TRANSFORMATION - XINHUA
At Chindata Group’s big-data industrial park in Lingqiu County of Datong City, hundreds of thousands of servers are running round-the-clock t ...
Monday, 23 January 23
CHINA'S COAL-RICH PROVINCE SEES COAL PRODUCTION INCREASE IN 2022 - XINHUA
North China’s coal-rich province of Shanxi saw its coal production hit 1.31 billion tonnes in 2022, up 8.7 percent year on year, local author ...
Wednesday, 18 January 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
From Feb 5, another price cap will be introduced to Russian fuels and oil products, adding to the one for crude oil, already in place from Dec. 3. ...
Tuesday, 17 January 23
FRAUD IS THE BIGGEST THREAT TO CARGO LOSSES - TT CLUB
The almost exclusive use of online facilities to process business transactions allows a myriad of fraudulent pursuits to find opportunities within ...
Tuesday, 17 January 23
CHINA'S SHANXI TARGETS 2023 COAL PRODUCTION OF NEARLY 1.37B TONS - XINHUA
China’s coal-rich province of Shanxi has set a coal production target of nearly 1.37 billion metric tons for 2023, according to a government ...
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- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Planning Commission, India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
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