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Thursday, 02 March 23
DRY BULK MARKET: THE WAY CHINA GOES, SO GOES THE MARKET - BIMCO
 We expect demand growth within the 1.5-2.5% range in 2023, driven by China’s economic recovery. Improvements in consumer sentiment should help solve the country’s real estate crisis and boost bulk demand.
However, demand growth could weaken to 1-2% in 2024 due to an expected reduction in coal shipments. Import demand should fall as India and China continue to boost domestic mining and Europe transitions away from fossil fuels.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates global economic growth of 2.9% in 2023 and 3.1% in 2024. The Chinese economy is now estimated to grow by 5.2% in 2023, a 0.8 percentage point increase over the IMF’s previous forecast.
The dry bulk fleet is forecast to grow by 2.7% in 2023 and by 2.0% in 2024. Deliveries remain limited amid a small orderbook at 7.5% of the fleet.
Supply is estimated to grow by 0.5-1.5% less than the fleet in 2023 and 2024 due to lower speeds caused by compliance with EEXI and CII regulations.
The supply/demand balance should improve in 2023, although risks will remain in 2024. We expect rates to start recovering as demand picks up in China.
Capesizes should benefit from a recovery in iron ore demand, while panamax ships are most exposed to a drop in coal shipments.
We expect freight rates to improve from the second half of 2023 onwards as a pick-up in demand in China drives an improvement in the supply/demand balance. Even though we expect demand growth to slow in 2024 as Europe cuts coal shipments and import demand from India and China stabilises, supply is still expected to grow at a slower pace and market conditions may still improve marginally. The bulk carrier fleet should grow by 2.7% in 2023 and by 2.0% in 2024 amid limited deliveries. Additionally, we expect environmental regulations to reduce supply growth by 0.5-1.5% as sailing speeds fall. Overall, supply is expected to increase by 1-2% in 2023 and by 0.5- 1.5% in 2024, while demand growth is predicted at 1.5-2.5% in 2023 and 1-2% in 2024. The expected recovery in iron ore shipments should result in a welcome rebound in capesize market conditions that have suffered from the low iron ore volumes throughout 2022. Conversely, the expected loss of coal shipments in 2024 could be a cause for concern for panamax ships since coal accounts for over half of their volume. The predicted improvement in the overall supply/demand balance is quite marginal as demand will outpace supply by only 0.5 pp in both 2023 and 2024. As such, the improvement is still vulnerable to a variety of risks that could still affect the demand outlook for 2023 and 2024. A slower-than-anticipated economic recovery in China or a delayed resolution of the real estate crisis could have a direct and significant impact on demand, thus impacting overall conditions for the dry bulk market.
Source: BIMCO
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Tuesday, 17 January 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Rumor has it that the New Year has come, to set the pace in, for Russia to continue hostilities against Ukraine. Ten months on the go, into Russia& ...
Tuesday, 17 January 23
INDONESIA IS ACCOUNTING FOR 32.3% OF THE GLOBAL SEABORNE COAL MARKET IN 2022 - BENCHERO COSTA
After a slow start in the first quarter, global coal trade has really picked up pace last year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels, Benchero ...
Tuesday, 10 January 23
INDONESIAN HBA IS SEEING A SPIKE IN JANUARY 2023 INSTEAD OF A SIGNIFICANT FALL IN DECEMBER 2022
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference up 8.43% in January 2023.
HBA is seeing a dramatic spike in January 2023 i ...
Sunday, 08 January 23
INDIAN COAL POWER PLANTS SHOULD BE COMPENSATED FOR 2022 FORCED GENERATION – REGULATOR : REUTERS
Indian power plants that rely on imported coal should be fully compensated when forced to supply electricity, the country’s power regulator s ...
Sunday, 08 January 23
ELEVATED COAL PRICE A DRAG ON MARGINS OF DOMESTIC BASE METAL PLAYERS: ICRA
The increased price of coal continue to be a drag on the margin of domestic base metal players with no immediate relief in sight, rating agency ICR ...
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- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PTC India Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
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