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Thursday, 02 March 23
DRY BULK MARKET: THE WAY CHINA GOES, SO GOES THE MARKET - BIMCO
 We expect demand growth within the 1.5-2.5% range in 2023, driven by China’s economic recovery. Improvements in consumer sentiment should help solve the country’s real estate crisis and boost bulk demand.
However, demand growth could weaken to 1-2% in 2024 due to an expected reduction in coal shipments. Import demand should fall as India and China continue to boost domestic mining and Europe transitions away from fossil fuels.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates global economic growth of 2.9% in 2023 and 3.1% in 2024. The Chinese economy is now estimated to grow by 5.2% in 2023, a 0.8 percentage point increase over the IMF’s previous forecast.
The dry bulk fleet is forecast to grow by 2.7% in 2023 and by 2.0% in 2024. Deliveries remain limited amid a small orderbook at 7.5% of the fleet.
Supply is estimated to grow by 0.5-1.5% less than the fleet in 2023 and 2024 due to lower speeds caused by compliance with EEXI and CII regulations.
The supply/demand balance should improve in 2023, although risks will remain in 2024. We expect rates to start recovering as demand picks up in China.
Capesizes should benefit from a recovery in iron ore demand, while panamax ships are most exposed to a drop in coal shipments.
We expect freight rates to improve from the second half of 2023 onwards as a pick-up in demand in China drives an improvement in the supply/demand balance. Even though we expect demand growth to slow in 2024 as Europe cuts coal shipments and import demand from India and China stabilises, supply is still expected to grow at a slower pace and market conditions may still improve marginally. The bulk carrier fleet should grow by 2.7% in 2023 and by 2.0% in 2024 amid limited deliveries. Additionally, we expect environmental regulations to reduce supply growth by 0.5-1.5% as sailing speeds fall. Overall, supply is expected to increase by 1-2% in 2023 and by 0.5- 1.5% in 2024, while demand growth is predicted at 1.5-2.5% in 2023 and 1-2% in 2024. The expected recovery in iron ore shipments should result in a welcome rebound in capesize market conditions that have suffered from the low iron ore volumes throughout 2022. Conversely, the expected loss of coal shipments in 2024 could be a cause for concern for panamax ships since coal accounts for over half of their volume. The predicted improvement in the overall supply/demand balance is quite marginal as demand will outpace supply by only 0.5 pp in both 2023 and 2024. As such, the improvement is still vulnerable to a variety of risks that could still affect the demand outlook for 2023 and 2024. A slower-than-anticipated economic recovery in China or a delayed resolution of the real estate crisis could have a direct and significant impact on demand, thus impacting overall conditions for the dry bulk market.
Source: BIMCO
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Thursday, 22 December 22
CHINA TIGHTENS VERIFICATION OF SHIPS’ ENERGY CONSUMPTION DATA - GARD
From 22 December 2022, ships trading to Chinese ports must record their energy consumption data in accordance with the requirements of their Ship E ...
Thursday, 22 December 22
AN OVERVIEW OF THE LNG MARKET - VESSELSVALUE
LNG values have continued to strengthen, spurred by skyrocketing earnings that have surpassed last year’s record breaking peaks. In November, ...
Thursday, 22 December 22
COKING COAL SLUMPS AS TALKS ON AUSTRALIA-CHINA TRADE RIFT LOOM - REUTERS
Chinese coking coal futures dropped more than 3 per cent on Tuesday (Dec 20), extending losses, as supply of the steelmaking input might increase i ...
Thursday, 22 December 22
COAL AND GAS PRICE CAPS MAY COMPOUND POLITICAL RISK FOR AUSTRALIAN CORPORATES - FITCH RATINGS
Australia’s introduction of temporary price caps on domestic sales of gas and coal used for electricity generation will probably have limited ...
Monday, 19 December 22
ENERGY CRISIS FUELS COAL COMEBACK IN GERMANY - REUTERS
Coal has made a comeback in Germany this year, as Europe’s largest economy turns to the dirty fuel to power it through an energy crisis.
...
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- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
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- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
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- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
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- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
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- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
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- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
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- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
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- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
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- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
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- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
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- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
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- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
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- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
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- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
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- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- The University of Queensland
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- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
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- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
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- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
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- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
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- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
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- Economic Council, Georgia
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- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
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- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
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- CNBM International Corporation - China
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- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
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- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
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- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
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- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
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- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
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- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
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- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
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- Marubeni Corporation - India
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- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
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- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
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- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
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- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Planning Commission, India
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