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Thursday, 02 March 23
DRY BULK MARKET: THE WAY CHINA GOES, SO GOES THE MARKET - BIMCO
 We expect demand growth within the 1.5-2.5% range in 2023, driven by China’s economic recovery. Improvements in consumer sentiment should help solve the country’s real estate crisis and boost bulk demand.
However, demand growth could weaken to 1-2% in 2024 due to an expected reduction in coal shipments. Import demand should fall as India and China continue to boost domestic mining and Europe transitions away from fossil fuels.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates global economic growth of 2.9% in 2023 and 3.1% in 2024. The Chinese economy is now estimated to grow by 5.2% in 2023, a 0.8 percentage point increase over the IMF’s previous forecast.
The dry bulk fleet is forecast to grow by 2.7% in 2023 and by 2.0% in 2024. Deliveries remain limited amid a small orderbook at 7.5% of the fleet.
Supply is estimated to grow by 0.5-1.5% less than the fleet in 2023 and 2024 due to lower speeds caused by compliance with EEXI and CII regulations.
The supply/demand balance should improve in 2023, although risks will remain in 2024. We expect rates to start recovering as demand picks up in China.
Capesizes should benefit from a recovery in iron ore demand, while panamax ships are most exposed to a drop in coal shipments.
We expect freight rates to improve from the second half of 2023 onwards as a pick-up in demand in China drives an improvement in the supply/demand balance. Even though we expect demand growth to slow in 2024 as Europe cuts coal shipments and import demand from India and China stabilises, supply is still expected to grow at a slower pace and market conditions may still improve marginally. The bulk carrier fleet should grow by 2.7% in 2023 and by 2.0% in 2024 amid limited deliveries. Additionally, we expect environmental regulations to reduce supply growth by 0.5-1.5% as sailing speeds fall. Overall, supply is expected to increase by 1-2% in 2023 and by 0.5- 1.5% in 2024, while demand growth is predicted at 1.5-2.5% in 2023 and 1-2% in 2024. The expected recovery in iron ore shipments should result in a welcome rebound in capesize market conditions that have suffered from the low iron ore volumes throughout 2022. Conversely, the expected loss of coal shipments in 2024 could be a cause for concern for panamax ships since coal accounts for over half of their volume. The predicted improvement in the overall supply/demand balance is quite marginal as demand will outpace supply by only 0.5 pp in both 2023 and 2024. As such, the improvement is still vulnerable to a variety of risks that could still affect the demand outlook for 2023 and 2024. A slower-than-anticipated economic recovery in China or a delayed resolution of the real estate crisis could have a direct and significant impact on demand, thus impacting overall conditions for the dry bulk market.
Source: BIMCO
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Tuesday, 13 December 22
YANCOAL AUSTRALIA TO PREPAY $459 MLN DEBT AS RECORD COAL PRICES BOOST CASHFLOWS - REUTERS
Coal miner Yancoal Australia Ltd. said on Friday it intended to prepay $459 million of its debt on or around Dec. 16, as elevated coal prices were ...
Tuesday, 13 December 22
WHY COAL LEADS THE RISE IN COMMODITIES THIS YEAR - MARKETWATCH
This year marked a resurgence for coal, often known — and loathed — by environmentalists as the dirtiest energy source, with prices mor ...
Thursday, 08 December 22
BIMCO TO REVISE WAR RISK CLAUSES
Work to revise the BIMCO War Cancellation Clause 2004, the BIMCO War Risks Clause for Time Chartering 2013 (CONWARTIME 2013) and the BIMCO War Risk ...
Thursday, 08 December 22
COAL ROYALTY PAYMENTS BOOST AUSTRALIAN STATE'S BUDGET FORECAST - REUTERS
Australia’s Queensland state on Wednesday forecast a record surplus for the current financial year, largely driven by higher royalty payments ...
Wednesday, 07 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
China’s coal imports from January to October were 230.1m mt, a decrease of around 10.7% y-o-y (2021 totalled 323.2m mt). The question is if t ...
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- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- White Energy Company Limited
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
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