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Thursday, 02 March 23
DRY BULK MARKET: THE WAY CHINA GOES, SO GOES THE MARKET - BIMCO
 We expect demand growth within the 1.5-2.5% range in 2023, driven by China’s economic recovery. Improvements in consumer sentiment should help solve the country’s real estate crisis and boost bulk demand.
However, demand growth could weaken to 1-2% in 2024 due to an expected reduction in coal shipments. Import demand should fall as India and China continue to boost domestic mining and Europe transitions away from fossil fuels.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates global economic growth of 2.9% in 2023 and 3.1% in 2024. The Chinese economy is now estimated to grow by 5.2% in 2023, a 0.8 percentage point increase over the IMF’s previous forecast.
The dry bulk fleet is forecast to grow by 2.7% in 2023 and by 2.0% in 2024. Deliveries remain limited amid a small orderbook at 7.5% of the fleet.
Supply is estimated to grow by 0.5-1.5% less than the fleet in 2023 and 2024 due to lower speeds caused by compliance with EEXI and CII regulations.
The supply/demand balance should improve in 2023, although risks will remain in 2024. We expect rates to start recovering as demand picks up in China.
Capesizes should benefit from a recovery in iron ore demand, while panamax ships are most exposed to a drop in coal shipments.
We expect freight rates to improve from the second half of 2023 onwards as a pick-up in demand in China drives an improvement in the supply/demand balance. Even though we expect demand growth to slow in 2024 as Europe cuts coal shipments and import demand from India and China stabilises, supply is still expected to grow at a slower pace and market conditions may still improve marginally. The bulk carrier fleet should grow by 2.7% in 2023 and by 2.0% in 2024 amid limited deliveries. Additionally, we expect environmental regulations to reduce supply growth by 0.5-1.5% as sailing speeds fall. Overall, supply is expected to increase by 1-2% in 2023 and by 0.5- 1.5% in 2024, while demand growth is predicted at 1.5-2.5% in 2023 and 1-2% in 2024. The expected recovery in iron ore shipments should result in a welcome rebound in capesize market conditions that have suffered from the low iron ore volumes throughout 2022. Conversely, the expected loss of coal shipments in 2024 could be a cause for concern for panamax ships since coal accounts for over half of their volume. The predicted improvement in the overall supply/demand balance is quite marginal as demand will outpace supply by only 0.5 pp in both 2023 and 2024. As such, the improvement is still vulnerable to a variety of risks that could still affect the demand outlook for 2023 and 2024. A slower-than-anticipated economic recovery in China or a delayed resolution of the real estate crisis could have a direct and significant impact on demand, thus impacting overall conditions for the dry bulk market.
Source: BIMCO
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Thursday, 15 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
While observing the ship repair market very close to the end of the year, we are confident that shipyards worldwide are entering a new era. The nex ...
Tuesday, 13 December 22
STRONG COAL PRICES SUPPORT ROBUST EARNINGS AT INDONESIAN COAL MINERS - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings expects cash flow generation at Indonesian coal miners to remain strong in 2023, based on its forecast for coal prices to remain high ...
Tuesday, 13 December 22
BIMCO CII CLAUSE FINALLY RELEASED: DOES IT MAKE ANY SENSE OF CCI? - WFW
WHAT IS CII?
The new International Maritime Organisation’s (“IMO’s”) Carbon Intensity Indicator (“CII”) cer ...
Tuesday, 13 December 22
COAL BASE RAMPS UP ENERGY SUPPLY FOR WINTER NEEDS - XINHUA
Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, China’s leading coal production base, has kicked its production into high gear to meet heating needs as col ...
Tuesday, 13 December 22
AUSTRALIA TO CAP PRICES OF COAL, GAS TO DRIVE DOWN ENERGY BILLS - REUTERS
Australia will cap coal and gas prices for a year in a bid to shave utility bills for households and businesses hit by soaring costs because of the ...
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- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Australian Coal Association
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
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