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Thursday, 02 March 23
DRY BULK MARKET: THE WAY CHINA GOES, SO GOES THE MARKET - BIMCO
 We expect demand growth within the 1.5-2.5% range in 2023, driven by China’s economic recovery. Improvements in consumer sentiment should help solve the country’s real estate crisis and boost bulk demand.
However, demand growth could weaken to 1-2% in 2024 due to an expected reduction in coal shipments. Import demand should fall as India and China continue to boost domestic mining and Europe transitions away from fossil fuels.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates global economic growth of 2.9% in 2023 and 3.1% in 2024. The Chinese economy is now estimated to grow by 5.2% in 2023, a 0.8 percentage point increase over the IMF’s previous forecast.
The dry bulk fleet is forecast to grow by 2.7% in 2023 and by 2.0% in 2024. Deliveries remain limited amid a small orderbook at 7.5% of the fleet.
Supply is estimated to grow by 0.5-1.5% less than the fleet in 2023 and 2024 due to lower speeds caused by compliance with EEXI and CII regulations.
The supply/demand balance should improve in 2023, although risks will remain in 2024. We expect rates to start recovering as demand picks up in China.
Capesizes should benefit from a recovery in iron ore demand, while panamax ships are most exposed to a drop in coal shipments.
We expect freight rates to improve from the second half of 2023 onwards as a pick-up in demand in China drives an improvement in the supply/demand balance. Even though we expect demand growth to slow in 2024 as Europe cuts coal shipments and import demand from India and China stabilises, supply is still expected to grow at a slower pace and market conditions may still improve marginally. The bulk carrier fleet should grow by 2.7% in 2023 and by 2.0% in 2024 amid limited deliveries. Additionally, we expect environmental regulations to reduce supply growth by 0.5-1.5% as sailing speeds fall. Overall, supply is expected to increase by 1-2% in 2023 and by 0.5- 1.5% in 2024, while demand growth is predicted at 1.5-2.5% in 2023 and 1-2% in 2024. The expected recovery in iron ore shipments should result in a welcome rebound in capesize market conditions that have suffered from the low iron ore volumes throughout 2022. Conversely, the expected loss of coal shipments in 2024 could be a cause for concern for panamax ships since coal accounts for over half of their volume. The predicted improvement in the overall supply/demand balance is quite marginal as demand will outpace supply by only 0.5 pp in both 2023 and 2024. As such, the improvement is still vulnerable to a variety of risks that could still affect the demand outlook for 2023 and 2024. A slower-than-anticipated economic recovery in China or a delayed resolution of the real estate crisis could have a direct and significant impact on demand, thus impacting overall conditions for the dry bulk market.
Source: BIMCO
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Wednesday, 07 December 22
INDIA'S STEEL MINISTRY SEEKS IMPORT TAX WAIVER FOR COKING COAL - SOURCES REUTERS REPORTED
India’s steel ministry has asked the finance ministry for a waiver of import tax on coking coal among a slew of raw materials, as it scramble ...
Tuesday, 06 December 22
INDIA'S COAL PRODUCTION RISES 17% IN APR-NOV PERIOD - PTI
The country’s coal production increased 17 per cent to 524.20 million tonnes in the April-November period of the ongoing fiscal.
...
Tuesday, 06 December 22
INDONESIA AIMS TO STARTS COLLECTING COAL LEVY IN Q1 2023 - MINISTER, REUTERS REPORTED
Indonesia aims to establish a coal fund agency and start collecting a coal levy in the first quarter next year, to help ensure supply security for ...
Saturday, 03 December 22
COMPLEX RUSSIAN PRICE CAP MAKES MARITIME VISIBILITY A MUST - WINDWARD
Many commentators and analysts are speculating about the potential impact the Russian seaborne oil price cap will have on organizations and entitie ...
Friday, 02 December 22
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE PLUNGE TOWARD US$ 281.48 A TON AS DEMAND DROPS WORLDWIDE
COALspot.com: The cost of coal is falling so fast that it is beginning to put real money back in the pockets of end-users.
Indonesia ...
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- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Planning Commission, India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
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