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Thursday, 02 March 23
DRY BULK MARKET: THE WAY CHINA GOES, SO GOES THE MARKET - BIMCO
 We expect demand growth within the 1.5-2.5% range in 2023, driven by China’s economic recovery. Improvements in consumer sentiment should help solve the country’s real estate crisis and boost bulk demand.
However, demand growth could weaken to 1-2% in 2024 due to an expected reduction in coal shipments. Import demand should fall as India and China continue to boost domestic mining and Europe transitions away from fossil fuels.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates global economic growth of 2.9% in 2023 and 3.1% in 2024. The Chinese economy is now estimated to grow by 5.2% in 2023, a 0.8 percentage point increase over the IMF’s previous forecast.
The dry bulk fleet is forecast to grow by 2.7% in 2023 and by 2.0% in 2024. Deliveries remain limited amid a small orderbook at 7.5% of the fleet.
Supply is estimated to grow by 0.5-1.5% less than the fleet in 2023 and 2024 due to lower speeds caused by compliance with EEXI and CII regulations.
The supply/demand balance should improve in 2023, although risks will remain in 2024. We expect rates to start recovering as demand picks up in China.
Capesizes should benefit from a recovery in iron ore demand, while panamax ships are most exposed to a drop in coal shipments.
We expect freight rates to improve from the second half of 2023 onwards as a pick-up in demand in China drives an improvement in the supply/demand balance. Even though we expect demand growth to slow in 2024 as Europe cuts coal shipments and import demand from India and China stabilises, supply is still expected to grow at a slower pace and market conditions may still improve marginally. The bulk carrier fleet should grow by 2.7% in 2023 and by 2.0% in 2024 amid limited deliveries. Additionally, we expect environmental regulations to reduce supply growth by 0.5-1.5% as sailing speeds fall. Overall, supply is expected to increase by 1-2% in 2023 and by 0.5- 1.5% in 2024, while demand growth is predicted at 1.5-2.5% in 2023 and 1-2% in 2024. The expected recovery in iron ore shipments should result in a welcome rebound in capesize market conditions that have suffered from the low iron ore volumes throughout 2022. Conversely, the expected loss of coal shipments in 2024 could be a cause for concern for panamax ships since coal accounts for over half of their volume. The predicted improvement in the overall supply/demand balance is quite marginal as demand will outpace supply by only 0.5 pp in both 2023 and 2024. As such, the improvement is still vulnerable to a variety of risks that could still affect the demand outlook for 2023 and 2024. A slower-than-anticipated economic recovery in China or a delayed resolution of the real estate crisis could have a direct and significant impact on demand, thus impacting overall conditions for the dry bulk market.
Source: BIMCO
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Friday, 25 November 22
APAC THERMAL COAL PRICES CORRECT FROM RECORD HIGH - FITCH RATINGS
Prices of Newcastle 6,000kcal/kg coal have corrected following falling European gas and coal prices, and more supply from Australia could help miti ...
Thursday, 24 November 22
VIETNAM BOOSTS COAL USE PLAN FOR 2030 AS G7 CLIMATE OFFER STALLS - REUTERS
Vietnam has increased its coal power target for 2030 under a revised draft energy plan, government documents seen by Reuters show, while renewables ...
Tuesday, 22 November 22
THE GENCON 2022 CHARTERPARTY - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
BIMCO has published a revamped version of the popular GENCON charterparty. Our author, Helena Biggs, was a member of the ...
Tuesday, 22 November 22
INDIA POWER BINGES ON COAL, OUTPACES ASIA - REUTERS
India’s coal-fired power output has increased much faster than any other country in the Asia Pacific since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine ...
Friday, 18 November 22
REALITIES OF LOI LIABILITIES - BALTIC EXCHANGE
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The cargo misdelivery claim in Trafigura Maritime Logistics Pte Ltd v. Clearlake Shipping Pte Ltd (Miracle Hope) [2022] E ...
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- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
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