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Thursday, 02 March 23
DRY BULK MARKET: THE WAY CHINA GOES, SO GOES THE MARKET - BIMCO
 We expect demand growth within the 1.5-2.5% range in 2023, driven by China’s economic recovery. Improvements in consumer sentiment should help solve the country’s real estate crisis and boost bulk demand.
However, demand growth could weaken to 1-2% in 2024 due to an expected reduction in coal shipments. Import demand should fall as India and China continue to boost domestic mining and Europe transitions away from fossil fuels.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates global economic growth of 2.9% in 2023 and 3.1% in 2024. The Chinese economy is now estimated to grow by 5.2% in 2023, a 0.8 percentage point increase over the IMF’s previous forecast.
The dry bulk fleet is forecast to grow by 2.7% in 2023 and by 2.0% in 2024. Deliveries remain limited amid a small orderbook at 7.5% of the fleet.
Supply is estimated to grow by 0.5-1.5% less than the fleet in 2023 and 2024 due to lower speeds caused by compliance with EEXI and CII regulations.
The supply/demand balance should improve in 2023, although risks will remain in 2024. We expect rates to start recovering as demand picks up in China.
Capesizes should benefit from a recovery in iron ore demand, while panamax ships are most exposed to a drop in coal shipments.
We expect freight rates to improve from the second half of 2023 onwards as a pick-up in demand in China drives an improvement in the supply/demand balance. Even though we expect demand growth to slow in 2024 as Europe cuts coal shipments and import demand from India and China stabilises, supply is still expected to grow at a slower pace and market conditions may still improve marginally. The bulk carrier fleet should grow by 2.7% in 2023 and by 2.0% in 2024 amid limited deliveries. Additionally, we expect environmental regulations to reduce supply growth by 0.5-1.5% as sailing speeds fall. Overall, supply is expected to increase by 1-2% in 2023 and by 0.5- 1.5% in 2024, while demand growth is predicted at 1.5-2.5% in 2023 and 1-2% in 2024. The expected recovery in iron ore shipments should result in a welcome rebound in capesize market conditions that have suffered from the low iron ore volumes throughout 2022. Conversely, the expected loss of coal shipments in 2024 could be a cause for concern for panamax ships since coal accounts for over half of their volume. The predicted improvement in the overall supply/demand balance is quite marginal as demand will outpace supply by only 0.5 pp in both 2023 and 2024. As such, the improvement is still vulnerable to a variety of risks that could still affect the demand outlook for 2023 and 2024. A slower-than-anticipated economic recovery in China or a delayed resolution of the real estate crisis could have a direct and significant impact on demand, thus impacting overall conditions for the dry bulk market.
Source: BIMCO
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Thursday, 03 November 22
HANDYSIZE VALUES MOVING UP IN OCTOBER, WHILE LNG VALUES SKYROCKET - VESSELSVALUE
Handysize values have increased this month across most ages, following a period of decline. Values for generic 10 year old Handysizes have moved up ...
Thursday, 03 November 22
EUROPEAN GAS SUPPLY SURPLUS, NOVEMBER HBA DOWN TO US$ 308.2 PER TON - ESDM
European gas supply conditions have a major influence in determining fluctuations in the Reference Coal Price (HBA). The November 2022 HBA recorded ...
Wednesday, 02 November 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Only five weeks before western sanctions’ full effect, uncertainty over energy has markets and governments on the edge. What was initially th ...
Tuesday, 01 November 22
CHINA COAL TRADE DISRUPTED BY COVID OUTBREAKS AS WINTER LOOMS - REUTERS
China’s strict COVID-19 policy is constraining coal supplies and pushing up prices, industry officials and traders say, just weeks before the ...
Monday, 31 October 22
U.S. COAL-FIRED GENERATION DECLINING AFTER BRIEF RISE LAST YEAR - EIA
We expect 6% less U.S. coal-fired generation in 2022 than in 2021, according to our latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). Although coal-fired ge ...
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- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Australian Coal Association
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- The University of Queensland
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
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