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Thursday, 02 March 23
DRY BULK MARKET: THE WAY CHINA GOES, SO GOES THE MARKET - BIMCO
 We expect demand growth within the 1.5-2.5% range in 2023, driven by China’s economic recovery. Improvements in consumer sentiment should help solve the country’s real estate crisis and boost bulk demand.
However, demand growth could weaken to 1-2% in 2024 due to an expected reduction in coal shipments. Import demand should fall as India and China continue to boost domestic mining and Europe transitions away from fossil fuels.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates global economic growth of 2.9% in 2023 and 3.1% in 2024. The Chinese economy is now estimated to grow by 5.2% in 2023, a 0.8 percentage point increase over the IMF’s previous forecast.
The dry bulk fleet is forecast to grow by 2.7% in 2023 and by 2.0% in 2024. Deliveries remain limited amid a small orderbook at 7.5% of the fleet.
Supply is estimated to grow by 0.5-1.5% less than the fleet in 2023 and 2024 due to lower speeds caused by compliance with EEXI and CII regulations.
The supply/demand balance should improve in 2023, although risks will remain in 2024. We expect rates to start recovering as demand picks up in China.
Capesizes should benefit from a recovery in iron ore demand, while panamax ships are most exposed to a drop in coal shipments.
We expect freight rates to improve from the second half of 2023 onwards as a pick-up in demand in China drives an improvement in the supply/demand balance. Even though we expect demand growth to slow in 2024 as Europe cuts coal shipments and import demand from India and China stabilises, supply is still expected to grow at a slower pace and market conditions may still improve marginally. The bulk carrier fleet should grow by 2.7% in 2023 and by 2.0% in 2024 amid limited deliveries. Additionally, we expect environmental regulations to reduce supply growth by 0.5-1.5% as sailing speeds fall. Overall, supply is expected to increase by 1-2% in 2023 and by 0.5- 1.5% in 2024, while demand growth is predicted at 1.5-2.5% in 2023 and 1-2% in 2024. The expected recovery in iron ore shipments should result in a welcome rebound in capesize market conditions that have suffered from the low iron ore volumes throughout 2022. Conversely, the expected loss of coal shipments in 2024 could be a cause for concern for panamax ships since coal accounts for over half of their volume. The predicted improvement in the overall supply/demand balance is quite marginal as demand will outpace supply by only 0.5 pp in both 2023 and 2024. As such, the improvement is still vulnerable to a variety of risks that could still affect the demand outlook for 2023 and 2024. A slower-than-anticipated economic recovery in China or a delayed resolution of the real estate crisis could have a direct and significant impact on demand, thus impacting overall conditions for the dry bulk market.
Source: BIMCO
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Wednesday, 19 October 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The LNG market remains extremely tight, and as a result adding further pressure on the vessel charter market, which is already stretched due to the ...
Sunday, 16 October 22
COULD A RETURN TO SHALE EXPLORATION BE PART OF THE SOLUTION TO EUROPE'S GAS SUPPLY PROBLEM? - WOOD MACKENZIE
The European gas market is in turmoil. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has shaken things up, triggering a complete rethink of European energy st ...
Thursday, 13 October 22
THERMAL COAL PRICES RETREAT AS WINTER SUPPLY FEARS EASE - REUTERS
The prices of key thermal seaborne coal grades are retreating amid signs that supplies will be sufficient to meet winter demand in both Europe and ...
Thursday, 13 October 22
SPOT COAL BIDDING: CHINESE FIRM WANTS REVISED MECHANISM - BUSINESS RECORDER
Chinese company M/s Huaneng Shandong Ruyi (Pakistan) Energy Limited (HSR) has cautioned National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (Nepra) that i ...
Thursday, 13 October 22
OPEC DOWNGRADES CRUDE OIL DEMAND, AS WORLD ECONOMY ENTERS SLOWDOWN
Crude Oil Price Movements
The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) declined m-o-m by $6.58 in September, or 6.5%, to average $95.32/b. Pressure from equ ...
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- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Planning Commission, India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Parliament of New Zealand
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