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Thursday, 02 March 23
DRY BULK MARKET: THE WAY CHINA GOES, SO GOES THE MARKET - BIMCO
 We expect demand growth within the 1.5-2.5% range in 2023, driven by China’s economic recovery. Improvements in consumer sentiment should help solve the country’s real estate crisis and boost bulk demand.
However, demand growth could weaken to 1-2% in 2024 due to an expected reduction in coal shipments. Import demand should fall as India and China continue to boost domestic mining and Europe transitions away from fossil fuels.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates global economic growth of 2.9% in 2023 and 3.1% in 2024. The Chinese economy is now estimated to grow by 5.2% in 2023, a 0.8 percentage point increase over the IMF’s previous forecast.
The dry bulk fleet is forecast to grow by 2.7% in 2023 and by 2.0% in 2024. Deliveries remain limited amid a small orderbook at 7.5% of the fleet.
Supply is estimated to grow by 0.5-1.5% less than the fleet in 2023 and 2024 due to lower speeds caused by compliance with EEXI and CII regulations.
The supply/demand balance should improve in 2023, although risks will remain in 2024. We expect rates to start recovering as demand picks up in China.
Capesizes should benefit from a recovery in iron ore demand, while panamax ships are most exposed to a drop in coal shipments.
We expect freight rates to improve from the second half of 2023 onwards as a pick-up in demand in China drives an improvement in the supply/demand balance. Even though we expect demand growth to slow in 2024 as Europe cuts coal shipments and import demand from India and China stabilises, supply is still expected to grow at a slower pace and market conditions may still improve marginally. The bulk carrier fleet should grow by 2.7% in 2023 and by 2.0% in 2024 amid limited deliveries. Additionally, we expect environmental regulations to reduce supply growth by 0.5-1.5% as sailing speeds fall. Overall, supply is expected to increase by 1-2% in 2023 and by 0.5- 1.5% in 2024, while demand growth is predicted at 1.5-2.5% in 2023 and 1-2% in 2024. The expected recovery in iron ore shipments should result in a welcome rebound in capesize market conditions that have suffered from the low iron ore volumes throughout 2022. Conversely, the expected loss of coal shipments in 2024 could be a cause for concern for panamax ships since coal accounts for over half of their volume. The predicted improvement in the overall supply/demand balance is quite marginal as demand will outpace supply by only 0.5 pp in both 2023 and 2024. As such, the improvement is still vulnerable to a variety of risks that could still affect the demand outlook for 2023 and 2024. A slower-than-anticipated economic recovery in China or a delayed resolution of the real estate crisis could have a direct and significant impact on demand, thus impacting overall conditions for the dry bulk market.
Source: BIMCO
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Monday, 31 October 22
CHINA COAL OUTPUT UP 12.3 PCT IN SEPTEMBER - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output posted stable expansion in September, official data showed.
The country produced 390 million tonnes of ...
Wednesday, 26 October 22
BIMCO PUBLISHES UPDATED GENCON CONTRACT
BIMCO has published a revised and updated version GENCON 2022 – one of its flagship contracts within its portfolio of standard contracts for ...
Monday, 24 October 22
KOSPO TO INVITE 400,000 MT OF COAL FOR 3 YEARS
COALspot.com: Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO) has issued an international tender for 400,000 MT of 3,800 - 4,400kcal/kg NCV and Sulfur Max 0 ...
Wednesday, 19 October 22
ASIA COULD BE A BRIGHT SPOT AMID GLOBAL DOWNTURN NEXT YEAR, ECONOMISTS SAY - CNBC
Asia — especially Southeast Asia — remains a bright spot, even as the global economy looks set to head into recession next year, econom ...
Wednesday, 19 October 22
WHAT WILL THE GAS MARKET LOOK LIKE IN A NET ZERO WORLD? - WOOD MACKENZIE
The global gas and LNG market faces a number of ‘great unknowns’. With the market in turmoil uncertainty abounds – from the scale ...
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- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- The University of Queensland
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Planning Commission, India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
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