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Thursday, 02 March 23
DRY BULK MARKET: THE WAY CHINA GOES, SO GOES THE MARKET - BIMCO
 We expect demand growth within the 1.5-2.5% range in 2023, driven by China’s economic recovery. Improvements in consumer sentiment should help solve the country’s real estate crisis and boost bulk demand.
However, demand growth could weaken to 1-2% in 2024 due to an expected reduction in coal shipments. Import demand should fall as India and China continue to boost domestic mining and Europe transitions away from fossil fuels.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates global economic growth of 2.9% in 2023 and 3.1% in 2024. The Chinese economy is now estimated to grow by 5.2% in 2023, a 0.8 percentage point increase over the IMF’s previous forecast.
The dry bulk fleet is forecast to grow by 2.7% in 2023 and by 2.0% in 2024. Deliveries remain limited amid a small orderbook at 7.5% of the fleet.
Supply is estimated to grow by 0.5-1.5% less than the fleet in 2023 and 2024 due to lower speeds caused by compliance with EEXI and CII regulations.
The supply/demand balance should improve in 2023, although risks will remain in 2024. We expect rates to start recovering as demand picks up in China.
Capesizes should benefit from a recovery in iron ore demand, while panamax ships are most exposed to a drop in coal shipments.
We expect freight rates to improve from the second half of 2023 onwards as a pick-up in demand in China drives an improvement in the supply/demand balance. Even though we expect demand growth to slow in 2024 as Europe cuts coal shipments and import demand from India and China stabilises, supply is still expected to grow at a slower pace and market conditions may still improve marginally. The bulk carrier fleet should grow by 2.7% in 2023 and by 2.0% in 2024 amid limited deliveries. Additionally, we expect environmental regulations to reduce supply growth by 0.5-1.5% as sailing speeds fall. Overall, supply is expected to increase by 1-2% in 2023 and by 0.5- 1.5% in 2024, while demand growth is predicted at 1.5-2.5% in 2023 and 1-2% in 2024. The expected recovery in iron ore shipments should result in a welcome rebound in capesize market conditions that have suffered from the low iron ore volumes throughout 2022. Conversely, the expected loss of coal shipments in 2024 could be a cause for concern for panamax ships since coal accounts for over half of their volume. The predicted improvement in the overall supply/demand balance is quite marginal as demand will outpace supply by only 0.5 pp in both 2023 and 2024. As such, the improvement is still vulnerable to a variety of risks that could still affect the demand outlook for 2023 and 2024. A slower-than-anticipated economic recovery in China or a delayed resolution of the real estate crisis could have a direct and significant impact on demand, thus impacting overall conditions for the dry bulk market.
Source: BIMCO
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Tuesday, 15 November 22
CHINA SEES RISING COAL STORAGE AMID SUPPLY PUSH - XINHUA
Coal stockpiles at China’s power plants have seen considerable increases, ensuring energy supply for the winter, the country’s energy r ...
Tuesday, 15 November 22
SEABORNE THERMAL COAL PRICES START TO EASE, BUT PROCESS IS UNEVEN - REUTERS
Prices for seaborne thermal coal have started to drop as fears of a winter energy crunch ease, but the rate of decline has varied across the differ ...
Thursday, 10 November 22
INDIA: THERMAL PLANTS HAVE ADEQUATE COAL STOCKS AT 25.6 MILLION TONNES, SAYS GOVT - IANS
The coal stock with domestic dry fuel-based power plants, as on October 31, was 25.6 million tonnes, the government said, adding that the availabil ...
Tuesday, 08 November 22
OUTLOOK ON CHINA’S WEAKENED BASIC MATERIALS SECTOR CLOUDED BY POLICY SWINGS - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings expects basic materials demand in China to improve qoq in 4Q22, driven by seasonally higher construction activity, solid infrastructu ...
Friday, 04 November 22
CHINA EXPANDS COAL TERM CONTRACTS TO ALL MINES TO STABILIZE MARKET - REUTERS
China has expanded long-term thermal coal supply contracts for 2023 to all coal mines and asked power utilities to source more of their demand thro ...
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- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Planning Commission, India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Australian Coal Association
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Parliament of New Zealand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
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