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Thursday, 02 March 23
DRY BULK MARKET: THE WAY CHINA GOES, SO GOES THE MARKET - BIMCO
 We expect demand growth within the 1.5-2.5% range in 2023, driven by China’s economic recovery. Improvements in consumer sentiment should help solve the country’s real estate crisis and boost bulk demand.
However, demand growth could weaken to 1-2% in 2024 due to an expected reduction in coal shipments. Import demand should fall as India and China continue to boost domestic mining and Europe transitions away from fossil fuels.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates global economic growth of 2.9% in 2023 and 3.1% in 2024. The Chinese economy is now estimated to grow by 5.2% in 2023, a 0.8 percentage point increase over the IMF’s previous forecast.
The dry bulk fleet is forecast to grow by 2.7% in 2023 and by 2.0% in 2024. Deliveries remain limited amid a small orderbook at 7.5% of the fleet.
Supply is estimated to grow by 0.5-1.5% less than the fleet in 2023 and 2024 due to lower speeds caused by compliance with EEXI and CII regulations.
The supply/demand balance should improve in 2023, although risks will remain in 2024. We expect rates to start recovering as demand picks up in China.
Capesizes should benefit from a recovery in iron ore demand, while panamax ships are most exposed to a drop in coal shipments.
We expect freight rates to improve from the second half of 2023 onwards as a pick-up in demand in China drives an improvement in the supply/demand balance. Even though we expect demand growth to slow in 2024 as Europe cuts coal shipments and import demand from India and China stabilises, supply is still expected to grow at a slower pace and market conditions may still improve marginally. The bulk carrier fleet should grow by 2.7% in 2023 and by 2.0% in 2024 amid limited deliveries. Additionally, we expect environmental regulations to reduce supply growth by 0.5-1.5% as sailing speeds fall. Overall, supply is expected to increase by 1-2% in 2023 and by 0.5- 1.5% in 2024, while demand growth is predicted at 1.5-2.5% in 2023 and 1-2% in 2024. The expected recovery in iron ore shipments should result in a welcome rebound in capesize market conditions that have suffered from the low iron ore volumes throughout 2022. Conversely, the expected loss of coal shipments in 2024 could be a cause for concern for panamax ships since coal accounts for over half of their volume. The predicted improvement in the overall supply/demand balance is quite marginal as demand will outpace supply by only 0.5 pp in both 2023 and 2024. As such, the improvement is still vulnerable to a variety of risks that could still affect the demand outlook for 2023 and 2024. A slower-than-anticipated economic recovery in China or a delayed resolution of the real estate crisis could have a direct and significant impact on demand, thus impacting overall conditions for the dry bulk market.
Source: BIMCO
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Wednesday, 30 November 22
INDONESIA’S BUMI RESOURCES TARGETS 2023 COAL OUTPUT OF 80 MLN TONNES - REUTERS
Indonesian coal miner PT Bumi Resources Tbk BUMI.JKis eyeing a 10% increase in output to 80 million tonnes next year amid expectations for more fav ...
Wednesday, 30 November 22
TANKERS: LONGER HAULS TO SUPPORT CONTINUED STRENGTH - BIMCO
Highlights
A rebound in the dirty tanker trade has led the Baltic Exchange Dirty Index (BDTI) to increase by 64% since our last report from mid ...
Wednesday, 30 November 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Shipping, although a conservative and innovation adverse industry, is currently in a transition period of digital transformation. According to a su ...
Tuesday, 29 November 22
INDIA TO RECEIVE FIRST LNG CARGO FROM INDONESIA’S TANGGUH LNG - REUTERS
India will receive its first cargo from Indonesia’s Tangguh liquefied natural gas (LNG) plant at the Dahej terminal on Monday, according to a ...
Tuesday, 29 November 22
SEABORNE COAL FLOWS IN 2022 - SIGNAL
This year is crucial for the energy mix in European countries, as the EU has imposed new sanctions on Russia. It is important to emphasize that the ...
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- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- White Energy Company Limited
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- The University of Queensland
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
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