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Thursday, 02 March 23
DRY BULK MARKET: THE WAY CHINA GOES, SO GOES THE MARKET - BIMCO
 We expect demand growth within the 1.5-2.5% range in 2023, driven by China’s economic recovery. Improvements in consumer sentiment should help solve the country’s real estate crisis and boost bulk demand.
However, demand growth could weaken to 1-2% in 2024 due to an expected reduction in coal shipments. Import demand should fall as India and China continue to boost domestic mining and Europe transitions away from fossil fuels.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates global economic growth of 2.9% in 2023 and 3.1% in 2024. The Chinese economy is now estimated to grow by 5.2% in 2023, a 0.8 percentage point increase over the IMF’s previous forecast.
The dry bulk fleet is forecast to grow by 2.7% in 2023 and by 2.0% in 2024. Deliveries remain limited amid a small orderbook at 7.5% of the fleet.
Supply is estimated to grow by 0.5-1.5% less than the fleet in 2023 and 2024 due to lower speeds caused by compliance with EEXI and CII regulations.
The supply/demand balance should improve in 2023, although risks will remain in 2024. We expect rates to start recovering as demand picks up in China.
Capesizes should benefit from a recovery in iron ore demand, while panamax ships are most exposed to a drop in coal shipments.
We expect freight rates to improve from the second half of 2023 onwards as a pick-up in demand in China drives an improvement in the supply/demand balance. Even though we expect demand growth to slow in 2024 as Europe cuts coal shipments and import demand from India and China stabilises, supply is still expected to grow at a slower pace and market conditions may still improve marginally. The bulk carrier fleet should grow by 2.7% in 2023 and by 2.0% in 2024 amid limited deliveries. Additionally, we expect environmental regulations to reduce supply growth by 0.5-1.5% as sailing speeds fall. Overall, supply is expected to increase by 1-2% in 2023 and by 0.5- 1.5% in 2024, while demand growth is predicted at 1.5-2.5% in 2023 and 1-2% in 2024. The expected recovery in iron ore shipments should result in a welcome rebound in capesize market conditions that have suffered from the low iron ore volumes throughout 2022. Conversely, the expected loss of coal shipments in 2024 could be a cause for concern for panamax ships since coal accounts for over half of their volume. The predicted improvement in the overall supply/demand balance is quite marginal as demand will outpace supply by only 0.5 pp in both 2023 and 2024. As such, the improvement is still vulnerable to a variety of risks that could still affect the demand outlook for 2023 and 2024. A slower-than-anticipated economic recovery in China or a delayed resolution of the real estate crisis could have a direct and significant impact on demand, thus impacting overall conditions for the dry bulk market.
Source: BIMCO
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Wednesday, 12 October 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Sale and Purchase activity during the first three quarters of 2022 has been remarkable.
Focusing only on Tankers and Bulkers, such v ...
Monday, 10 October 22
ENERGY TRANSITION BOOSTS GLOBAL LONG-TERM DEMAND FOR METALS - FITCH RATINGS
The energy transition will significantly increase demand for metals used in manufacturing of electric vehicles (EVs) and renewable power generation ...
Monday, 10 October 22
GLOBAL CEOS EXPECT IMPENDING RECESSION TO BE 'SHORT AND SHARP,' POLL SHOWS - CNBC
Global CEOs are anticipating a recession in the next 12 months, according to a new survey by professional services firm KPMG, which said more than ...
Thursday, 06 October 22
AUSTRALIA’S RESOURCES REVENUE TO HIT RECORD AMID UKRAINE CONFLICT - REUTERS
Australian resources and energy export earnings are forecast to jump 7% to a record A$450 billion ($290 billion) this fiscal year, bolstered by soa ...
Thursday, 06 October 22
COAL INDIA ASKED TO ENHANCE SUPPLY TO THERMAL POWER PLANTS - IANS
With the festival season round the corner, Coal India Ltd. has been directed by the government to scale up dispatch to thermal power plants.
&n ...
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- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
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