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Thursday, 02 March 23
DRY BULK MARKET: THE WAY CHINA GOES, SO GOES THE MARKET - BIMCO
 We expect demand growth within the 1.5-2.5% range in 2023, driven by China’s economic recovery. Improvements in consumer sentiment should help solve the country’s real estate crisis and boost bulk demand.
However, demand growth could weaken to 1-2% in 2024 due to an expected reduction in coal shipments. Import demand should fall as India and China continue to boost domestic mining and Europe transitions away from fossil fuels.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates global economic growth of 2.9% in 2023 and 3.1% in 2024. The Chinese economy is now estimated to grow by 5.2% in 2023, a 0.8 percentage point increase over the IMF’s previous forecast.
The dry bulk fleet is forecast to grow by 2.7% in 2023 and by 2.0% in 2024. Deliveries remain limited amid a small orderbook at 7.5% of the fleet.
Supply is estimated to grow by 0.5-1.5% less than the fleet in 2023 and 2024 due to lower speeds caused by compliance with EEXI and CII regulations.
The supply/demand balance should improve in 2023, although risks will remain in 2024. We expect rates to start recovering as demand picks up in China.
Capesizes should benefit from a recovery in iron ore demand, while panamax ships are most exposed to a drop in coal shipments.
We expect freight rates to improve from the second half of 2023 onwards as a pick-up in demand in China drives an improvement in the supply/demand balance. Even though we expect demand growth to slow in 2024 as Europe cuts coal shipments and import demand from India and China stabilises, supply is still expected to grow at a slower pace and market conditions may still improve marginally. The bulk carrier fleet should grow by 2.7% in 2023 and by 2.0% in 2024 amid limited deliveries. Additionally, we expect environmental regulations to reduce supply growth by 0.5-1.5% as sailing speeds fall. Overall, supply is expected to increase by 1-2% in 2023 and by 0.5- 1.5% in 2024, while demand growth is predicted at 1.5-2.5% in 2023 and 1-2% in 2024. The expected recovery in iron ore shipments should result in a welcome rebound in capesize market conditions that have suffered from the low iron ore volumes throughout 2022. Conversely, the expected loss of coal shipments in 2024 could be a cause for concern for panamax ships since coal accounts for over half of their volume. The predicted improvement in the overall supply/demand balance is quite marginal as demand will outpace supply by only 0.5 pp in both 2023 and 2024. As such, the improvement is still vulnerable to a variety of risks that could still affect the demand outlook for 2023 and 2024. A slower-than-anticipated economic recovery in China or a delayed resolution of the real estate crisis could have a direct and significant impact on demand, thus impacting overall conditions for the dry bulk market.
Source: BIMCO
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Wednesday, 05 October 22
BUNKER PRICES DOWN AGAIN; IS THERE MORE TO COME? - INTEGR8 FUELS
It’s the economy…..”
VLSFO prices are now back to levels at the start of this year. After all the extremes of thi ...
Wednesday, 05 October 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Amid the looming western sanctions on Russia, the country is challenged to pivot its energy markets away from Europe and toward the East. Yet, Russ ...
Tuesday, 04 October 22
A REMARKABLE SHIFT IN FORTUNES HAS BEEN NOTED IN THE CRUDE OIL TANKER MARKETS - ALLIED SHIPPING
A remarkable shift in fortunes has been noted in the crude oil tanker markets over the past month, yet despite these shifts being seemingly in thei ...
Tuesday, 04 October 22
OIL PRICES COULD SOON RETURN TO $100 AS OPEC+ CONSIDERS ‘HISTORIC’ CUT, ANALYSTS SAY - CNBC
An influential alliance of some of the world’s most powerful oil producers is reportedly considering their largest output cut since the start ...
Tuesday, 04 October 22
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE SURGE AGAIN TO RECORD HIGH
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference reached another record high in October as Russia's war in Ukraine continues to spark a surge in c ...
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- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PTC India Limited - India
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