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Thursday, 02 March 23
DRY BULK MARKET: THE WAY CHINA GOES, SO GOES THE MARKET - BIMCO
 We expect demand growth within the 1.5-2.5% range in 2023, driven by China’s economic recovery. Improvements in consumer sentiment should help solve the country’s real estate crisis and boost bulk demand.
However, demand growth could weaken to 1-2% in 2024 due to an expected reduction in coal shipments. Import demand should fall as India and China continue to boost domestic mining and Europe transitions away from fossil fuels.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates global economic growth of 2.9% in 2023 and 3.1% in 2024. The Chinese economy is now estimated to grow by 5.2% in 2023, a 0.8 percentage point increase over the IMF’s previous forecast.
The dry bulk fleet is forecast to grow by 2.7% in 2023 and by 2.0% in 2024. Deliveries remain limited amid a small orderbook at 7.5% of the fleet.
Supply is estimated to grow by 0.5-1.5% less than the fleet in 2023 and 2024 due to lower speeds caused by compliance with EEXI and CII regulations.
The supply/demand balance should improve in 2023, although risks will remain in 2024. We expect rates to start recovering as demand picks up in China.
Capesizes should benefit from a recovery in iron ore demand, while panamax ships are most exposed to a drop in coal shipments.
We expect freight rates to improve from the second half of 2023 onwards as a pick-up in demand in China drives an improvement in the supply/demand balance. Even though we expect demand growth to slow in 2024 as Europe cuts coal shipments and import demand from India and China stabilises, supply is still expected to grow at a slower pace and market conditions may still improve marginally. The bulk carrier fleet should grow by 2.7% in 2023 and by 2.0% in 2024 amid limited deliveries. Additionally, we expect environmental regulations to reduce supply growth by 0.5-1.5% as sailing speeds fall. Overall, supply is expected to increase by 1-2% in 2023 and by 0.5- 1.5% in 2024, while demand growth is predicted at 1.5-2.5% in 2023 and 1-2% in 2024. The expected recovery in iron ore shipments should result in a welcome rebound in capesize market conditions that have suffered from the low iron ore volumes throughout 2022. Conversely, the expected loss of coal shipments in 2024 could be a cause for concern for panamax ships since coal accounts for over half of their volume. The predicted improvement in the overall supply/demand balance is quite marginal as demand will outpace supply by only 0.5 pp in both 2023 and 2024. As such, the improvement is still vulnerable to a variety of risks that could still affect the demand outlook for 2023 and 2024. A slower-than-anticipated economic recovery in China or a delayed resolution of the real estate crisis could have a direct and significant impact on demand, thus impacting overall conditions for the dry bulk market.
Source: BIMCO
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Saturday, 25 February 23
INDONESIA IS STILL BY FAR THE TOP SUPPLIER OF COAL TO CHINA - BANCHERO COSTA
After a slow start in the first quarter, global coal trade has really picked up pace last year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels, said ban ...
Wednesday, 22 February 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The short-term outlook of the global soybean market is currently pivoted by a combination of weather patterns that are affecting the harvest progre ...
Saturday, 18 February 23
OIL UNLIKELY TO BREAK ABOVE $100/BBL THIS YEAR, J.P.MORGAN SAYS –- REUTERS
Brent oil prices are unlikely to breach the $100 a barrel level this year, barring any significant geopolitical drivers, with OPEC+ potentially add ...
Saturday, 18 February 23
CHINA'S COAL PRICES FALL TO 1 YR-LOW, CLOUDING DEMAND AND IMPORT OUTLOOK - REUTERS
China’s thermal coal prices hit their lowest levels in a year this week on rising inventories as domestic mine production is recovering faste ...
Saturday, 18 February 23
PAKISTAN PLANS TO QUADRUPLE DOMESTIC COAL-FIRED POWER, MOVE AWAY FROM GAS - REUTERS
Pakistan plans to quadruple its domestic coal-fired capacity to reduce power generation costs and will not build new gas-fired plants in the coming ...
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- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- MS Steel International - UAE
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Planning Commission, India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Australian Coal Association
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Parliament of New Zealand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- The University of Queensland
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
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