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Thursday, 02 March 23
DRY BULK MARKET: THE WAY CHINA GOES, SO GOES THE MARKET - BIMCO
 We expect demand growth within the 1.5-2.5% range in 2023, driven by China’s economic recovery. Improvements in consumer sentiment should help solve the country’s real estate crisis and boost bulk demand.
However, demand growth could weaken to 1-2% in 2024 due to an expected reduction in coal shipments. Import demand should fall as India and China continue to boost domestic mining and Europe transitions away from fossil fuels.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates global economic growth of 2.9% in 2023 and 3.1% in 2024. The Chinese economy is now estimated to grow by 5.2% in 2023, a 0.8 percentage point increase over the IMF’s previous forecast.
The dry bulk fleet is forecast to grow by 2.7% in 2023 and by 2.0% in 2024. Deliveries remain limited amid a small orderbook at 7.5% of the fleet.
Supply is estimated to grow by 0.5-1.5% less than the fleet in 2023 and 2024 due to lower speeds caused by compliance with EEXI and CII regulations.
The supply/demand balance should improve in 2023, although risks will remain in 2024. We expect rates to start recovering as demand picks up in China.
Capesizes should benefit from a recovery in iron ore demand, while panamax ships are most exposed to a drop in coal shipments.
We expect freight rates to improve from the second half of 2023 onwards as a pick-up in demand in China drives an improvement in the supply/demand balance. Even though we expect demand growth to slow in 2024 as Europe cuts coal shipments and import demand from India and China stabilises, supply is still expected to grow at a slower pace and market conditions may still improve marginally. The bulk carrier fleet should grow by 2.7% in 2023 and by 2.0% in 2024 amid limited deliveries. Additionally, we expect environmental regulations to reduce supply growth by 0.5-1.5% as sailing speeds fall. Overall, supply is expected to increase by 1-2% in 2023 and by 0.5- 1.5% in 2024, while demand growth is predicted at 1.5-2.5% in 2023 and 1-2% in 2024. The expected recovery in iron ore shipments should result in a welcome rebound in capesize market conditions that have suffered from the low iron ore volumes throughout 2022. Conversely, the expected loss of coal shipments in 2024 could be a cause for concern for panamax ships since coal accounts for over half of their volume. The predicted improvement in the overall supply/demand balance is quite marginal as demand will outpace supply by only 0.5 pp in both 2023 and 2024. As such, the improvement is still vulnerable to a variety of risks that could still affect the demand outlook for 2023 and 2024. A slower-than-anticipated economic recovery in China or a delayed resolution of the real estate crisis could have a direct and significant impact on demand, thus impacting overall conditions for the dry bulk market.
Source: BIMCO
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Saturday, 18 March 23
HEDGE TO OFFSET LNG VOLATILITY, TRADERS TOLD - BALTIC EXCHANGE
A shift in imports from Asia to Europe led to significant volatility in liquefied natural gas shipping last year, prompting industry experts to urg ...
Friday, 17 March 23
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE UP AROUND 2.17% IN MARCH 2023
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference up around 2.17% in March 2023.
According to the new HBA regulation No. 41.K/MB.0 ...
Saturday, 11 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Uncertainty over the recovery of Chinese demand, demand destruction in Europe, as well as weather conditions will pivot the LNG market this summer. ...
Wednesday, 08 March 23
INDONESIAN COAL REFERENCE PRICE FORMULA HAS OFFICIALLY CHANGED
Indonesian Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources has officially changed the guideline for determining the benchmark price for the sale of coal c ...
Thursday, 02 March 23
INDIA'S SEABORNE CRUDE OIL IMPORTS IN 2022 INCREASED BY 11.5% YOY - BANCHERO COSTA
2022 has turned out to be a very positive year for crude oil trade, despite the surging oil prices and risks of economic recession, Banchero Costa ...
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- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- The University of Queensland
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
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