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Thursday, 02 March 23
DRY BULK MARKET: THE WAY CHINA GOES, SO GOES THE MARKET - BIMCO
 We expect demand growth within the 1.5-2.5% range in 2023, driven by China’s economic recovery. Improvements in consumer sentiment should help solve the country’s real estate crisis and boost bulk demand.
However, demand growth could weaken to 1-2% in 2024 due to an expected reduction in coal shipments. Import demand should fall as India and China continue to boost domestic mining and Europe transitions away from fossil fuels.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates global economic growth of 2.9% in 2023 and 3.1% in 2024. The Chinese economy is now estimated to grow by 5.2% in 2023, a 0.8 percentage point increase over the IMF’s previous forecast.
The dry bulk fleet is forecast to grow by 2.7% in 2023 and by 2.0% in 2024. Deliveries remain limited amid a small orderbook at 7.5% of the fleet.
Supply is estimated to grow by 0.5-1.5% less than the fleet in 2023 and 2024 due to lower speeds caused by compliance with EEXI and CII regulations.
The supply/demand balance should improve in 2023, although risks will remain in 2024. We expect rates to start recovering as demand picks up in China.
Capesizes should benefit from a recovery in iron ore demand, while panamax ships are most exposed to a drop in coal shipments.
We expect freight rates to improve from the second half of 2023 onwards as a pick-up in demand in China drives an improvement in the supply/demand balance. Even though we expect demand growth to slow in 2024 as Europe cuts coal shipments and import demand from India and China stabilises, supply is still expected to grow at a slower pace and market conditions may still improve marginally. The bulk carrier fleet should grow by 2.7% in 2023 and by 2.0% in 2024 amid limited deliveries. Additionally, we expect environmental regulations to reduce supply growth by 0.5-1.5% as sailing speeds fall. Overall, supply is expected to increase by 1-2% in 2023 and by 0.5- 1.5% in 2024, while demand growth is predicted at 1.5-2.5% in 2023 and 1-2% in 2024. The expected recovery in iron ore shipments should result in a welcome rebound in capesize market conditions that have suffered from the low iron ore volumes throughout 2022. Conversely, the expected loss of coal shipments in 2024 could be a cause for concern for panamax ships since coal accounts for over half of their volume. The predicted improvement in the overall supply/demand balance is quite marginal as demand will outpace supply by only 0.5 pp in both 2023 and 2024. As such, the improvement is still vulnerable to a variety of risks that could still affect the demand outlook for 2023 and 2024. A slower-than-anticipated economic recovery in China or a delayed resolution of the real estate crisis could have a direct and significant impact on demand, thus impacting overall conditions for the dry bulk market.
Source: BIMCO
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Saturday, 18 March 23
HEDGE TO OFFSET LNG VOLATILITY, TRADERS TOLD - BALTIC EXCHANGE
A shift in imports from Asia to Europe led to significant volatility in liquefied natural gas shipping last year, prompting industry experts to urg ...
Friday, 17 March 23
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE UP AROUND 2.17% IN MARCH 2023
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference up around 2.17% in March 2023.
According to the new HBA regulation No. 41.K/MB.0 ...
Saturday, 11 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Uncertainty over the recovery of Chinese demand, demand destruction in Europe, as well as weather conditions will pivot the LNG market this summer. ...
Wednesday, 08 March 23
INDONESIAN COAL REFERENCE PRICE FORMULA HAS OFFICIALLY CHANGED
Indonesian Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources has officially changed the guideline for determining the benchmark price for the sale of coal c ...
Thursday, 02 March 23
INDIA'S SEABORNE CRUDE OIL IMPORTS IN 2022 INCREASED BY 11.5% YOY - BANCHERO COSTA
2022 has turned out to be a very positive year for crude oil trade, despite the surging oil prices and risks of economic recession, Banchero Costa ...
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- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Planning Commission, India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Australian Coal Association
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
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