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Thursday, 02 March 23
DRY BULK MARKET: THE WAY CHINA GOES, SO GOES THE MARKET - BIMCO
 We expect demand growth within the 1.5-2.5% range in 2023, driven by China’s economic recovery. Improvements in consumer sentiment should help solve the country’s real estate crisis and boost bulk demand.
However, demand growth could weaken to 1-2% in 2024 due to an expected reduction in coal shipments. Import demand should fall as India and China continue to boost domestic mining and Europe transitions away from fossil fuels.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates global economic growth of 2.9% in 2023 and 3.1% in 2024. The Chinese economy is now estimated to grow by 5.2% in 2023, a 0.8 percentage point increase over the IMF’s previous forecast.
The dry bulk fleet is forecast to grow by 2.7% in 2023 and by 2.0% in 2024. Deliveries remain limited amid a small orderbook at 7.5% of the fleet.
Supply is estimated to grow by 0.5-1.5% less than the fleet in 2023 and 2024 due to lower speeds caused by compliance with EEXI and CII regulations.
The supply/demand balance should improve in 2023, although risks will remain in 2024. We expect rates to start recovering as demand picks up in China.
Capesizes should benefit from a recovery in iron ore demand, while panamax ships are most exposed to a drop in coal shipments.
We expect freight rates to improve from the second half of 2023 onwards as a pick-up in demand in China drives an improvement in the supply/demand balance. Even though we expect demand growth to slow in 2024 as Europe cuts coal shipments and import demand from India and China stabilises, supply is still expected to grow at a slower pace and market conditions may still improve marginally. The bulk carrier fleet should grow by 2.7% in 2023 and by 2.0% in 2024 amid limited deliveries. Additionally, we expect environmental regulations to reduce supply growth by 0.5-1.5% as sailing speeds fall. Overall, supply is expected to increase by 1-2% in 2023 and by 0.5- 1.5% in 2024, while demand growth is predicted at 1.5-2.5% in 2023 and 1-2% in 2024. The expected recovery in iron ore shipments should result in a welcome rebound in capesize market conditions that have suffered from the low iron ore volumes throughout 2022. Conversely, the expected loss of coal shipments in 2024 could be a cause for concern for panamax ships since coal accounts for over half of their volume. The predicted improvement in the overall supply/demand balance is quite marginal as demand will outpace supply by only 0.5 pp in both 2023 and 2024. As such, the improvement is still vulnerable to a variety of risks that could still affect the demand outlook for 2023 and 2024. A slower-than-anticipated economic recovery in China or a delayed resolution of the real estate crisis could have a direct and significant impact on demand, thus impacting overall conditions for the dry bulk market.
Source: BIMCO
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Saturday, 25 March 23
COAL INDIA HAS STRONG CASE TO INCREASE PRICES, TALKS ON: CMD AGRAWAL - BUSINESS STANDARD
Coal India (CIL) Chairman and Managing Director Pramod Agrawal said on Monday there is a “strong case” for increasing coal prices, and ...
Saturday, 25 March 23
ASIAN CRUDE PALM OIL WATCH 1Q23 - FITCH RATINGS
Malaysian benchmark crude palm oil (CPO) spot prices have averaged around USD915 per tonne (t) so far in 1Q23, sharply lower than the average of ar ...
Saturday, 25 March 23
INDONESIA’S COAL EXPORT INCREASED BY 21.0% YOY TO 388.4 MLN T IN 2022 - BANCHERO COSTA
After a slow start in the first quarter, global coal trade has really picked up pace last year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels. In the f ...
Saturday, 25 March 23
GLOBAL LNG-ASIA SPOT PRICES SLIP AS WEAK NORTHERN DEMAND REMAINS - REUTERS
Asian spot prices of liquefied natural gas (LNG) declined this week, falling to a 21-month low, as weak demand in the northeast Asia region continu ...
Wednesday, 22 March 23
OIL PRICE FALL SPECULATIVE, TO HIT $140 BY YEAR-END -ANDURAND: REUTERS
The recent fall in oil prices due to banking jitters is speculative and oil will hit $140 a barrel by the end of the year, hedge fund manager Pierr ...
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- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PTC India Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- White Energy Company Limited
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
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