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Thursday, 02 March 23
DRY BULK MARKET: THE WAY CHINA GOES, SO GOES THE MARKET - BIMCO
 We expect demand growth within the 1.5-2.5% range in 2023, driven by China’s economic recovery. Improvements in consumer sentiment should help solve the country’s real estate crisis and boost bulk demand.
However, demand growth could weaken to 1-2% in 2024 due to an expected reduction in coal shipments. Import demand should fall as India and China continue to boost domestic mining and Europe transitions away from fossil fuels.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates global economic growth of 2.9% in 2023 and 3.1% in 2024. The Chinese economy is now estimated to grow by 5.2% in 2023, a 0.8 percentage point increase over the IMF’s previous forecast.
The dry bulk fleet is forecast to grow by 2.7% in 2023 and by 2.0% in 2024. Deliveries remain limited amid a small orderbook at 7.5% of the fleet.
Supply is estimated to grow by 0.5-1.5% less than the fleet in 2023 and 2024 due to lower speeds caused by compliance with EEXI and CII regulations.
The supply/demand balance should improve in 2023, although risks will remain in 2024. We expect rates to start recovering as demand picks up in China.
Capesizes should benefit from a recovery in iron ore demand, while panamax ships are most exposed to a drop in coal shipments.
We expect freight rates to improve from the second half of 2023 onwards as a pick-up in demand in China drives an improvement in the supply/demand balance. Even though we expect demand growth to slow in 2024 as Europe cuts coal shipments and import demand from India and China stabilises, supply is still expected to grow at a slower pace and market conditions may still improve marginally. The bulk carrier fleet should grow by 2.7% in 2023 and by 2.0% in 2024 amid limited deliveries. Additionally, we expect environmental regulations to reduce supply growth by 0.5-1.5% as sailing speeds fall. Overall, supply is expected to increase by 1-2% in 2023 and by 0.5- 1.5% in 2024, while demand growth is predicted at 1.5-2.5% in 2023 and 1-2% in 2024. The expected recovery in iron ore shipments should result in a welcome rebound in capesize market conditions that have suffered from the low iron ore volumes throughout 2022. Conversely, the expected loss of coal shipments in 2024 could be a cause for concern for panamax ships since coal accounts for over half of their volume. The predicted improvement in the overall supply/demand balance is quite marginal as demand will outpace supply by only 0.5 pp in both 2023 and 2024. As such, the improvement is still vulnerable to a variety of risks that could still affect the demand outlook for 2023 and 2024. A slower-than-anticipated economic recovery in China or a delayed resolution of the real estate crisis could have a direct and significant impact on demand, thus impacting overall conditions for the dry bulk market.
Source: BIMCO
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Saturday, 25 March 23
COAL INDIA HAS STRONG CASE TO INCREASE PRICES, TALKS ON: CMD AGRAWAL - BUSINESS STANDARD
Coal India (CIL) Chairman and Managing Director Pramod Agrawal said on Monday there is a “strong case” for increasing coal prices, and ...
Saturday, 25 March 23
ASIAN CRUDE PALM OIL WATCH 1Q23 - FITCH RATINGS
Malaysian benchmark crude palm oil (CPO) spot prices have averaged around USD915 per tonne (t) so far in 1Q23, sharply lower than the average of ar ...
Saturday, 25 March 23
INDONESIA’S COAL EXPORT INCREASED BY 21.0% YOY TO 388.4 MLN T IN 2022 - BANCHERO COSTA
After a slow start in the first quarter, global coal trade has really picked up pace last year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels. In the f ...
Saturday, 25 March 23
GLOBAL LNG-ASIA SPOT PRICES SLIP AS WEAK NORTHERN DEMAND REMAINS - REUTERS
Asian spot prices of liquefied natural gas (LNG) declined this week, falling to a 21-month low, as weak demand in the northeast Asia region continu ...
Wednesday, 22 March 23
OIL PRICE FALL SPECULATIVE, TO HIT $140 BY YEAR-END -ANDURAND: REUTERS
The recent fall in oil prices due to banking jitters is speculative and oil will hit $140 a barrel by the end of the year, hedge fund manager Pierr ...
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- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
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