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Thursday, 02 March 23
DRY BULK MARKET: THE WAY CHINA GOES, SO GOES THE MARKET - BIMCO
 We expect demand growth within the 1.5-2.5% range in 2023, driven by China’s economic recovery. Improvements in consumer sentiment should help solve the country’s real estate crisis and boost bulk demand.
However, demand growth could weaken to 1-2% in 2024 due to an expected reduction in coal shipments. Import demand should fall as India and China continue to boost domestic mining and Europe transitions away from fossil fuels.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates global economic growth of 2.9% in 2023 and 3.1% in 2024. The Chinese economy is now estimated to grow by 5.2% in 2023, a 0.8 percentage point increase over the IMF’s previous forecast.
The dry bulk fleet is forecast to grow by 2.7% in 2023 and by 2.0% in 2024. Deliveries remain limited amid a small orderbook at 7.5% of the fleet.
Supply is estimated to grow by 0.5-1.5% less than the fleet in 2023 and 2024 due to lower speeds caused by compliance with EEXI and CII regulations.
The supply/demand balance should improve in 2023, although risks will remain in 2024. We expect rates to start recovering as demand picks up in China.
Capesizes should benefit from a recovery in iron ore demand, while panamax ships are most exposed to a drop in coal shipments.
We expect freight rates to improve from the second half of 2023 onwards as a pick-up in demand in China drives an improvement in the supply/demand balance. Even though we expect demand growth to slow in 2024 as Europe cuts coal shipments and import demand from India and China stabilises, supply is still expected to grow at a slower pace and market conditions may still improve marginally. The bulk carrier fleet should grow by 2.7% in 2023 and by 2.0% in 2024 amid limited deliveries. Additionally, we expect environmental regulations to reduce supply growth by 0.5-1.5% as sailing speeds fall. Overall, supply is expected to increase by 1-2% in 2023 and by 0.5- 1.5% in 2024, while demand growth is predicted at 1.5-2.5% in 2023 and 1-2% in 2024. The expected recovery in iron ore shipments should result in a welcome rebound in capesize market conditions that have suffered from the low iron ore volumes throughout 2022. Conversely, the expected loss of coal shipments in 2024 could be a cause for concern for panamax ships since coal accounts for over half of their volume. The predicted improvement in the overall supply/demand balance is quite marginal as demand will outpace supply by only 0.5 pp in both 2023 and 2024. As such, the improvement is still vulnerable to a variety of risks that could still affect the demand outlook for 2023 and 2024. A slower-than-anticipated economic recovery in China or a delayed resolution of the real estate crisis could have a direct and significant impact on demand, thus impacting overall conditions for the dry bulk market.
Source: BIMCO
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Wednesday, 22 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The crude tanker market continues to gather momentum as we head towards the end of 1Q2023, against a backdrop of strong U.S. exports paired with a ...
Wednesday, 22 March 23
WILL LOWER GAS PRICES SPARK SWITCHING IN EUROPE AND ASIA?
Record high prices devastated demand for gas and LNG across Asia and Europe last year. But with prices falling, companies are starting to re-evalua ...
Monday, 20 March 23
NTPC MULLS 5.4 MILLION TONNES COAL IMPORT IN FIRST HALF OF 2023-24: PTI
State-run power giant NTPC is planning to import around 5.4 million tonnes of coal to meet the supply shortage during the first half 2023-24 fiscal ...
Monday, 20 March 23
S. AFRICA’S EXXARO RESOURCES SAYS COAL PRICES COOLING OFF - REUTERS
South Africa’s Exxaro Resources on Thursday posted a 28% jump in 2022 profit after seeing average coal prices surge more than 150%, but warne ...
Saturday, 18 March 23
RUSSIAN LNG EXPORTS TO EUROPE REMAIN HIGH - VESSELS VALUE
Russian LNG exports to Europe remained at very high levels in February at 3.6 million CBM, following a 13 month high in January of 4.1 million CBM. ...
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- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- VISA Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Planning Commission, India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
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