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Thursday, 02 March 23
DRY BULK MARKET: THE WAY CHINA GOES, SO GOES THE MARKET - BIMCO
 We expect demand growth within the 1.5-2.5% range in 2023, driven by China’s economic recovery. Improvements in consumer sentiment should help solve the country’s real estate crisis and boost bulk demand.
However, demand growth could weaken to 1-2% in 2024 due to an expected reduction in coal shipments. Import demand should fall as India and China continue to boost domestic mining and Europe transitions away from fossil fuels.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates global economic growth of 2.9% in 2023 and 3.1% in 2024. The Chinese economy is now estimated to grow by 5.2% in 2023, a 0.8 percentage point increase over the IMF’s previous forecast.
The dry bulk fleet is forecast to grow by 2.7% in 2023 and by 2.0% in 2024. Deliveries remain limited amid a small orderbook at 7.5% of the fleet.
Supply is estimated to grow by 0.5-1.5% less than the fleet in 2023 and 2024 due to lower speeds caused by compliance with EEXI and CII regulations.
The supply/demand balance should improve in 2023, although risks will remain in 2024. We expect rates to start recovering as demand picks up in China.
Capesizes should benefit from a recovery in iron ore demand, while panamax ships are most exposed to a drop in coal shipments.
We expect freight rates to improve from the second half of 2023 onwards as a pick-up in demand in China drives an improvement in the supply/demand balance. Even though we expect demand growth to slow in 2024 as Europe cuts coal shipments and import demand from India and China stabilises, supply is still expected to grow at a slower pace and market conditions may still improve marginally. The bulk carrier fleet should grow by 2.7% in 2023 and by 2.0% in 2024 amid limited deliveries. Additionally, we expect environmental regulations to reduce supply growth by 0.5-1.5% as sailing speeds fall. Overall, supply is expected to increase by 1-2% in 2023 and by 0.5- 1.5% in 2024, while demand growth is predicted at 1.5-2.5% in 2023 and 1-2% in 2024. The expected recovery in iron ore shipments should result in a welcome rebound in capesize market conditions that have suffered from the low iron ore volumes throughout 2022. Conversely, the expected loss of coal shipments in 2024 could be a cause for concern for panamax ships since coal accounts for over half of their volume. The predicted improvement in the overall supply/demand balance is quite marginal as demand will outpace supply by only 0.5 pp in both 2023 and 2024. As such, the improvement is still vulnerable to a variety of risks that could still affect the demand outlook for 2023 and 2024. A slower-than-anticipated economic recovery in China or a delayed resolution of the real estate crisis could have a direct and significant impact on demand, thus impacting overall conditions for the dry bulk market.
Source: BIMCO
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Tuesday, 11 April 23
OIL RISES ON CHINA STIMULUS EXPECTATIONS, WEAKER DOLLAR - REUTERS
Oil prices rose on Tuesday on expectations of potential economic stimulus by China, healthy demand in the rest of Asia and a drop in U.S. crude sto ...
Sunday, 09 April 23
CHINA’S BUSINESS INCOME REBOUND POINTS TO IMPROVING ECONOMY: OFFICIAL - XINHUA
Chinese businesses have posted a strong rebound in sales revenue since the beginning of this year in the latest signal of an improving economy.
...
Sunday, 09 April 23
COAL INDIA TO BOOST SUPPLIES TO INDUSTRIES AS UTILITIES’ INVENTORIES RISE - REUTERS
Coal India Ltd will increase supplies to industries, the world’s largest coal miner said on Wednesday as fuel inventories at utilities run by ...
Thursday, 06 April 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
LNG Current Supply/Demand Dynamics
This year, LNG supply will likely exceed demand, so prices will need to decline to levels that will encourag ...
Sunday, 26 March 23
EUROPE’S RUSH TO LNG COULD TURN INTO 'WORLD’S MOST EXPENSIVE AND UNNECESSARY INSURANCE POLICY'- CNBC
Europe’s rapid buildout of liquefied natural gas infrastructure is on track to far exceed demand by the end of the decade, according to new r ...
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- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PTC India Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Planning Commission, India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- The University of Queensland
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
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