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Thursday, 02 March 23
DRY BULK MARKET: THE WAY CHINA GOES, SO GOES THE MARKET - BIMCO
 We expect demand growth within the 1.5-2.5% range in 2023, driven by China’s economic recovery. Improvements in consumer sentiment should help solve the country’s real estate crisis and boost bulk demand.
However, demand growth could weaken to 1-2% in 2024 due to an expected reduction in coal shipments. Import demand should fall as India and China continue to boost domestic mining and Europe transitions away from fossil fuels.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates global economic growth of 2.9% in 2023 and 3.1% in 2024. The Chinese economy is now estimated to grow by 5.2% in 2023, a 0.8 percentage point increase over the IMF’s previous forecast.
The dry bulk fleet is forecast to grow by 2.7% in 2023 and by 2.0% in 2024. Deliveries remain limited amid a small orderbook at 7.5% of the fleet.
Supply is estimated to grow by 0.5-1.5% less than the fleet in 2023 and 2024 due to lower speeds caused by compliance with EEXI and CII regulations.
The supply/demand balance should improve in 2023, although risks will remain in 2024. We expect rates to start recovering as demand picks up in China.
Capesizes should benefit from a recovery in iron ore demand, while panamax ships are most exposed to a drop in coal shipments.
We expect freight rates to improve from the second half of 2023 onwards as a pick-up in demand in China drives an improvement in the supply/demand balance. Even though we expect demand growth to slow in 2024 as Europe cuts coal shipments and import demand from India and China stabilises, supply is still expected to grow at a slower pace and market conditions may still improve marginally. The bulk carrier fleet should grow by 2.7% in 2023 and by 2.0% in 2024 amid limited deliveries. Additionally, we expect environmental regulations to reduce supply growth by 0.5-1.5% as sailing speeds fall. Overall, supply is expected to increase by 1-2% in 2023 and by 0.5- 1.5% in 2024, while demand growth is predicted at 1.5-2.5% in 2023 and 1-2% in 2024. The expected recovery in iron ore shipments should result in a welcome rebound in capesize market conditions that have suffered from the low iron ore volumes throughout 2022. Conversely, the expected loss of coal shipments in 2024 could be a cause for concern for panamax ships since coal accounts for over half of their volume. The predicted improvement in the overall supply/demand balance is quite marginal as demand will outpace supply by only 0.5 pp in both 2023 and 2024. As such, the improvement is still vulnerable to a variety of risks that could still affect the demand outlook for 2023 and 2024. A slower-than-anticipated economic recovery in China or a delayed resolution of the real estate crisis could have a direct and significant impact on demand, thus impacting overall conditions for the dry bulk market.
Source: BIMCO
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Tuesday, 11 April 23
OIL RISES ON CHINA STIMULUS EXPECTATIONS, WEAKER DOLLAR - REUTERS
Oil prices rose on Tuesday on expectations of potential economic stimulus by China, healthy demand in the rest of Asia and a drop in U.S. crude sto ...
Sunday, 09 April 23
CHINA’S BUSINESS INCOME REBOUND POINTS TO IMPROVING ECONOMY: OFFICIAL - XINHUA
Chinese businesses have posted a strong rebound in sales revenue since the beginning of this year in the latest signal of an improving economy.
...
Sunday, 09 April 23
COAL INDIA TO BOOST SUPPLIES TO INDUSTRIES AS UTILITIES’ INVENTORIES RISE - REUTERS
Coal India Ltd will increase supplies to industries, the world’s largest coal miner said on Wednesday as fuel inventories at utilities run by ...
Thursday, 06 April 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
LNG Current Supply/Demand Dynamics
This year, LNG supply will likely exceed demand, so prices will need to decline to levels that will encourag ...
Sunday, 26 March 23
EUROPE’S RUSH TO LNG COULD TURN INTO 'WORLD’S MOST EXPENSIVE AND UNNECESSARY INSURANCE POLICY'- CNBC
Europe’s rapid buildout of liquefied natural gas infrastructure is on track to far exceed demand by the end of the decade, according to new r ...
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- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Planning Commission, India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- The University of Queensland
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
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