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Thursday, 02 March 23
DRY BULK MARKET: THE WAY CHINA GOES, SO GOES THE MARKET - BIMCO
 We expect demand growth within the 1.5-2.5% range in 2023, driven by China’s economic recovery. Improvements in consumer sentiment should help solve the country’s real estate crisis and boost bulk demand.
However, demand growth could weaken to 1-2% in 2024 due to an expected reduction in coal shipments. Import demand should fall as India and China continue to boost domestic mining and Europe transitions away from fossil fuels.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates global economic growth of 2.9% in 2023 and 3.1% in 2024. The Chinese economy is now estimated to grow by 5.2% in 2023, a 0.8 percentage point increase over the IMF’s previous forecast.
The dry bulk fleet is forecast to grow by 2.7% in 2023 and by 2.0% in 2024. Deliveries remain limited amid a small orderbook at 7.5% of the fleet.
Supply is estimated to grow by 0.5-1.5% less than the fleet in 2023 and 2024 due to lower speeds caused by compliance with EEXI and CII regulations.
The supply/demand balance should improve in 2023, although risks will remain in 2024. We expect rates to start recovering as demand picks up in China.
Capesizes should benefit from a recovery in iron ore demand, while panamax ships are most exposed to a drop in coal shipments.
We expect freight rates to improve from the second half of 2023 onwards as a pick-up in demand in China drives an improvement in the supply/demand balance. Even though we expect demand growth to slow in 2024 as Europe cuts coal shipments and import demand from India and China stabilises, supply is still expected to grow at a slower pace and market conditions may still improve marginally. The bulk carrier fleet should grow by 2.7% in 2023 and by 2.0% in 2024 amid limited deliveries. Additionally, we expect environmental regulations to reduce supply growth by 0.5-1.5% as sailing speeds fall. Overall, supply is expected to increase by 1-2% in 2023 and by 0.5- 1.5% in 2024, while demand growth is predicted at 1.5-2.5% in 2023 and 1-2% in 2024. The expected recovery in iron ore shipments should result in a welcome rebound in capesize market conditions that have suffered from the low iron ore volumes throughout 2022. Conversely, the expected loss of coal shipments in 2024 could be a cause for concern for panamax ships since coal accounts for over half of their volume. The predicted improvement in the overall supply/demand balance is quite marginal as demand will outpace supply by only 0.5 pp in both 2023 and 2024. As such, the improvement is still vulnerable to a variety of risks that could still affect the demand outlook for 2023 and 2024. A slower-than-anticipated economic recovery in China or a delayed resolution of the real estate crisis could have a direct and significant impact on demand, thus impacting overall conditions for the dry bulk market.
Source: BIMCO
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Sunday, 16 April 23
CHINA JUGGLES FOUR MAJOR ECONOMIC CHANGES IN 2023 - WOOD MACKENZIE
Change is afoot in China. Economic growth is slowing, while rising political tensions between China and the US, coupled with global supply chain re ...
Sunday, 16 April 23
CHINA'S MARCH COAL IMPORTS JUMP TO 3-YEAR HIGH - REUTERS
China’s coal imports surged in March to their highest in any month over the past three years as utilities increased purchases on expectations ...
Sunday, 16 April 23
OPEC KEEPS WORLD OIL DEMAND GROWTH OUTLOOK UNCHANGED
The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) declined in March by $3.43, or 4.2%, m-o-m to average $78.45/b. The ICE Brent first-month contract fell by $4.33, o ...
Sunday, 16 April 23
CHEAPER SPOT LNG PRICES TEMPT SOME ASIAN BUYERS AMID SUPPLY GAINS - REUTERS
Cheaper spot prices for liquefied natural gas (LNG) are luring price-sensitive buyers back in Asia, with China and India recording rising imports i ...
Tuesday, 11 April 23
COAL USE CLIMBS WORLDWIDE DESPITE PROMISES TO SLASH IT - AAP
The burning of coal for electricity, cement, steel and other uses went up in 2022 despite global promises to phase down the fuel that is the bigges ...
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- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- The University of Queensland
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
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