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Thursday, 02 March 23
DRY BULK MARKET: THE WAY CHINA GOES, SO GOES THE MARKET - BIMCO
 We expect demand growth within the 1.5-2.5% range in 2023, driven by China’s economic recovery. Improvements in consumer sentiment should help solve the country’s real estate crisis and boost bulk demand.
However, demand growth could weaken to 1-2% in 2024 due to an expected reduction in coal shipments. Import demand should fall as India and China continue to boost domestic mining and Europe transitions away from fossil fuels.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates global economic growth of 2.9% in 2023 and 3.1% in 2024. The Chinese economy is now estimated to grow by 5.2% in 2023, a 0.8 percentage point increase over the IMF’s previous forecast.
The dry bulk fleet is forecast to grow by 2.7% in 2023 and by 2.0% in 2024. Deliveries remain limited amid a small orderbook at 7.5% of the fleet.
Supply is estimated to grow by 0.5-1.5% less than the fleet in 2023 and 2024 due to lower speeds caused by compliance with EEXI and CII regulations.
The supply/demand balance should improve in 2023, although risks will remain in 2024. We expect rates to start recovering as demand picks up in China.
Capesizes should benefit from a recovery in iron ore demand, while panamax ships are most exposed to a drop in coal shipments.
We expect freight rates to improve from the second half of 2023 onwards as a pick-up in demand in China drives an improvement in the supply/demand balance. Even though we expect demand growth to slow in 2024 as Europe cuts coal shipments and import demand from India and China stabilises, supply is still expected to grow at a slower pace and market conditions may still improve marginally. The bulk carrier fleet should grow by 2.7% in 2023 and by 2.0% in 2024 amid limited deliveries. Additionally, we expect environmental regulations to reduce supply growth by 0.5-1.5% as sailing speeds fall. Overall, supply is expected to increase by 1-2% in 2023 and by 0.5- 1.5% in 2024, while demand growth is predicted at 1.5-2.5% in 2023 and 1-2% in 2024. The expected recovery in iron ore shipments should result in a welcome rebound in capesize market conditions that have suffered from the low iron ore volumes throughout 2022. Conversely, the expected loss of coal shipments in 2024 could be a cause for concern for panamax ships since coal accounts for over half of their volume. The predicted improvement in the overall supply/demand balance is quite marginal as demand will outpace supply by only 0.5 pp in both 2023 and 2024. As such, the improvement is still vulnerable to a variety of risks that could still affect the demand outlook for 2023 and 2024. A slower-than-anticipated economic recovery in China or a delayed resolution of the real estate crisis could have a direct and significant impact on demand, thus impacting overall conditions for the dry bulk market.
Source: BIMCO
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Wednesday, 21 June 23
CHINA'S MAY COAL IMPORTS FROM AUSTRALIA RECOVER TO PRE-BAN LEVELS - REUTERS
Australian coal sales to China increased in May, as trade resumed between them even as overall coal demand weakened against an uncertain macroecono ...
Monday, 19 June 23
DROUGHT-DEPLETED HYDROPOWER DRIVES CHINA TO TURN TO COAL - REUTERS
China has leant hard on coal-fired power plants as well as wind and solar generators to make up for a shortfall in hydroelectric generation as a re ...
Monday, 19 June 23
CHINA COAL OUTPUT UP 4.2 PCT IN MAY - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output posted steady growth in May, official data showed.
The country produced 390 million tonnes of raw coal ...
Wednesday, 24 May 23
AMMONIA-FUELLED BULK CARRIERS WITHIN FIVE YEARS - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Within five years, ships powered by clean ammonia could be a feature on the iron ore trade routes between West Australia and East Asia.
A study ...
Tuesday, 23 May 23
CHINA'S APRIL COAL OUTPUT LEAPS 11% ON YEAR, BUT DEMAND DOWNTURN LOOMS - REUTERS
China’s daily coal output in April jumped 11% from the same month a year earlier, boosted by Beijing’s order to increase supply to ensu ...
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- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Planning Commission, India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
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