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Wednesday, 03 October 12
BARCLAYS'S PRICE FORECAST FOR NEWCASTLE COAL HAS BEEN WRITTEN DOWN
“ The main story in the global coal markets has been the growth in supply, with all of the major exporters adding volumes into a market which we forecast will grow by 10.5% y/y in 2012. The US has been the leader, with exports increasing by 58% (up by 9 Mt) in H1 12, effectively exporting some of the energy surplus it had built up owing to a rise in shale gas extraction,” according to Barclays's Coal and freight quarterly report, that released last week.
The strong supply side has stimulated demand, with European takes up by some 7 Mt in the first four months as both the UK and Spain saw coal plant aggressively pushing out gas plant from the merit-orders. 2012 looks like it will be a high point for coal imports as environmental legislation should bring back some gas demand in 2013 and 2014, said Barclays's commodities researchers Trevor Sikorski, Miswin Mahesh & Sijin Cheng , in their latest market research report.
The Barclays’s report further pin pointed that, in the Pacific Basin, demand growth focused on China, which saw imports rise by 29% y/y, despite both very healthy additions to domestic production and a marked slowing of growth rates. The result of such high imports against a relatively modest demand background was eventually heavy pressure on Chinese domestic prices, a big build in inventories, and periods where additional imports have been turned away on contract default.
Barclays further said in its analysis report, global steam coal markets have softened since the start of the year (by around 18%). However, Barclays noted that over the last few months European delivered coal has been broadly stable at around 90 $/t. At this level, prices are now hovering around the marginal costs of the highest-cost exporters (Russia and the US) in the Atlantic Basin, and there are reports (McCloskey) that a number of Indonesian producers are starting to curtail production. While this is likely to limit potential downside, the inventory builds and modest Pacific demand side suggest limited upside, barring a significant weather or supply-side event.
Barclays revised its price outlook for CIF ARA forecasts and FOB Richards Bay prices by 1-3%.
Barclays’s price forecast for Newcastle coal has also been written down the most to average 96 $/t in 2012 (down 8.5% from their previous forecast of 105 $/t) and 94 $/t in 2013 (down 13% from 108 $/t), reflecting the impact of a slowdown in Chinese growth and the China’s current healthy inventories of coal.
Last week an Indonesian securites, Bahana Securities forecasted 2013 coal prices at USD 85 / ton, around US$ 12.00 or 12.37 percent below its 2012 price forecasts. Bahana believes upside potential on coal price remains limited due to weak coal demand. Hence, Bahana maintains its 2012 average coal benchmark price at USD 97/ton, and forecasted prices for 2013 far lesser than 2012 price.
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Tuesday, 14 November 23
CHINA'S BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE TURNS AWAY FROM COAL - WOOD MACKENZIE
Ambitious, contentious and big spending, China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is 10 years old. In that time, China has splashed more than U ...
Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and ...
Friday, 10 November 23
COAL USE AT U.S. POWER PLANTS CONTINUES DOWNWARD SPIRAL; FULL IMPACT ON MINES TO BE FELT IN 2024 - IEEFA
This year, the use of coal by the U.S.’s power producers has been so anemic that the fuel has not achieved a 20% market share in any month so ...
Friday, 10 November 23
INDIA: NATIONAL COAL INDEX RISES 3.83 POINTS IN SEPTEMBER AMID HIGHER DEMAND - LIVEMINT
The National Coal Index (NCI) rose 3.83 points to 143.91 in September amid growing demand for coal.
The union coal ministry on Tuesd ...
Thursday, 09 November 23
WE'RE PRODUCING TOO MUCH COAL, OIL AND GAS, REPORT SAYS - WSJ
World leaders pledged in 2015 to reduce emissions in a combined effort to limit climate change.
Now they are stepping up production ...
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- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- White Energy Company Limited
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
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