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Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and traded to its lowest level since July. Meanwhile, NYMEX WTI settled below US$80/bbl for the first time since August. The market is clearly less concerned about the potential for Middle Eastern supply disruptions and is instead focused on an easing in the balance. Prompt time spreads have weakened, suggesting a less tight physical market. And while there are clear demand concerns hovering over the market, supply dynamics have also played a role. For example, Russian seaborne crude oil exports have grown in recent months, which suggests that Russia is not sticking to its additional voluntary cut.
The recent price weakness is likely to lead to growing noise from OPEC+ and in particular from Saudi Arabia. Whilst Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed that they would continue with their additional voluntary cuts through until the year-end, it is increasingly likely that they will extend this into the new year if this downward pressure continues. The Saudis would like to keep Brent above US$80/bbl, as this is roughly where their fiscal breakeven price is. Our oil balance shows that the market will be in surplus in 1Q24, so further cuts are something we could certainly see.
The weakness seen yesterday is likely to continue today. The API released inventory numbers overnight which were bearish. US crude oil inventories increased by 11.9MMbbls over the last week, while Cushing crude oil stocks grew by 1.1MMbbls. For refined products, gasoline inventories fell by 400Mbbls and distillate fuel oil stocks increased by 1MMbbls. The more widely followed EIA inventory report will be released later today.
In the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, there was little change to US crude oil production estimates. US crude oil output is expected to average 12.9MMbbls/d this year, up 1MMbbls/d YoY, while supply growth is expected to be much more modest next year, increasing by less than 250Mbbls/d to average 13.15MMbbls/d
Chinese October trade data released yesterday showed a fall in the trade surplus last month with weaker exports. However, imports were stronger, including crude oil. Crude oil imports averaged 11.58MMbbls/d in the month, up 3.7% MoM and 13.5% higher YoY. This leaves cumulative imports for the year at 11.41MMbbls/d, up 14.4% YoY. Stronger imports over the course of this year may reflect a recovery in domestic demand, while there will also be a fair amount of stock building.
Metals – China boosts gold reserves
China expanded its gold reserves for a twelfth straight month in October, according to the latest data from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). The country raised its gold reserves by around 23 tonnes to a total of 2,215 tonnes last month. China has added about 266 tonnes of gold in the last twelve months through October. In general, central bank demand over the third quarter has been strong, because of the geopolitical environment, and with this uncertainty set to linger, we are likely to see central banks continuing to add to their holdings in the coming months.
China released its preliminary trade data for metals yesterday which shows total monthly imports for unwrought copper jumped 23.7% YoY (+4% MoM) to 500.2kt in October due to declining domestic inventories and firm demand. However, cumulative imports are still down 6.7% YoY to total 4.49mt over the first ten months of the year as stronger domestic production weighed on overseas purchases. Imports of copper concentrate rose 11.3% YoY to 2.31mt last month, while year-to-date imports rose 9.2% YoY to 22.6mt. In ferrous metals, iron ore imports rose 4.6% YoY to 99.4mt in October, however, were down almost 2% MoM as steel output declined following the seasonal slump in construction activity. Cumulative iron ore imports are up 6.5% YoY to 975.8mt.
On the export side, China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium product shipments fell 8.1% YoY to 440.3kt last month, while year-to-date exports declined 17% YoY to 4.7mt over the first ten months of the year. Meanwhile, exports of steel products jumped 34.8% YoY to 74.7mt during Jan’23-Oct’23.
Agriculture – Chinese soybean imports surge
The latest trade numbers from China show that soybean imports rose 25% YoY to 5.2mt in October as domestic crushers increased purchases taking advantage of higher supplies from Brazil. Cumulative imports rose 14.6% YoY to 82.4mt over the first ten months of the year.
Weekly data from the European Commission show that soft wheat shipments for the season so far fell 25% YoY to 9.95mt as of 2 November. Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria were the top destinations for these shipments. The commission added that corn imports over the same period stood at 5.8mt, down 43% compared to a year ago. Weaker corn imports reflect a recovery in EU corn production this season.
Source: ING
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Tuesday, 14 November 23
CHINA'S BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE TURNS AWAY FROM COAL - WOOD MACKENZIE
Ambitious, contentious and big spending, China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is 10 years old. In that time, China has splashed more than U ...
Friday, 10 November 23
COAL USE AT U.S. POWER PLANTS CONTINUES DOWNWARD SPIRAL; FULL IMPACT ON MINES TO BE FELT IN 2024 - IEEFA
This year, the use of coal by the U.S.’s power producers has been so anemic that the fuel has not achieved a 20% market share in any month so ...
Friday, 10 November 23
INDIA: NATIONAL COAL INDEX RISES 3.83 POINTS IN SEPTEMBER AMID HIGHER DEMAND - LIVEMINT
The National Coal Index (NCI) rose 3.83 points to 143.91 in September amid growing demand for coal.
The union coal ministry on Tuesd ...
Thursday, 09 November 23
WE'RE PRODUCING TOO MUCH COAL, OIL AND GAS, REPORT SAYS - WSJ
World leaders pledged in 2015 to reduce emissions in a combined effort to limit climate change.
Now they are stepping up production ...
Thursday, 09 November 23
GREEK AND CHINESE COMPANIES OWN 34% OF THE GLOBAL FLEET’S CARGO CAPACITY - BIMCO
“The global fleet of cargo carrying ships consists of around 61,000 ships with a deadweight capacity of about 2,200 million tonnes. The ships ...
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- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- The University of Queensland
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Australian Coal Association
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Planning Commission, India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PTC India Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- White Energy Company Limited
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
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