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Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and traded to its lowest level since July. Meanwhile, NYMEX WTI settled below US$80/bbl for the first time since August. The market is clearly less concerned about the potential for Middle Eastern supply disruptions and is instead focused on an easing in the balance. Prompt time spreads have weakened, suggesting a less tight physical market. And while there are clear demand concerns hovering over the market, supply dynamics have also played a role. For example, Russian seaborne crude oil exports have grown in recent months, which suggests that Russia is not sticking to its additional voluntary cut.
The recent price weakness is likely to lead to growing noise from OPEC+ and in particular from Saudi Arabia. Whilst Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed that they would continue with their additional voluntary cuts through until the year-end, it is increasingly likely that they will extend this into the new year if this downward pressure continues. The Saudis would like to keep Brent above US$80/bbl, as this is roughly where their fiscal breakeven price is. Our oil balance shows that the market will be in surplus in 1Q24, so further cuts are something we could certainly see.
The weakness seen yesterday is likely to continue today. The API released inventory numbers overnight which were bearish. US crude oil inventories increased by 11.9MMbbls over the last week, while Cushing crude oil stocks grew by 1.1MMbbls. For refined products, gasoline inventories fell by 400Mbbls and distillate fuel oil stocks increased by 1MMbbls. The more widely followed EIA inventory report will be released later today.
In the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, there was little change to US crude oil production estimates. US crude oil output is expected to average 12.9MMbbls/d this year, up 1MMbbls/d YoY, while supply growth is expected to be much more modest next year, increasing by less than 250Mbbls/d to average 13.15MMbbls/d
Chinese October trade data released yesterday showed a fall in the trade surplus last month with weaker exports. However, imports were stronger, including crude oil. Crude oil imports averaged 11.58MMbbls/d in the month, up 3.7% MoM and 13.5% higher YoY. This leaves cumulative imports for the year at 11.41MMbbls/d, up 14.4% YoY. Stronger imports over the course of this year may reflect a recovery in domestic demand, while there will also be a fair amount of stock building.
Metals – China boosts gold reserves
China expanded its gold reserves for a twelfth straight month in October, according to the latest data from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). The country raised its gold reserves by around 23 tonnes to a total of 2,215 tonnes last month. China has added about 266 tonnes of gold in the last twelve months through October. In general, central bank demand over the third quarter has been strong, because of the geopolitical environment, and with this uncertainty set to linger, we are likely to see central banks continuing to add to their holdings in the coming months.
China released its preliminary trade data for metals yesterday which shows total monthly imports for unwrought copper jumped 23.7% YoY (+4% MoM) to 500.2kt in October due to declining domestic inventories and firm demand. However, cumulative imports are still down 6.7% YoY to total 4.49mt over the first ten months of the year as stronger domestic production weighed on overseas purchases. Imports of copper concentrate rose 11.3% YoY to 2.31mt last month, while year-to-date imports rose 9.2% YoY to 22.6mt. In ferrous metals, iron ore imports rose 4.6% YoY to 99.4mt in October, however, were down almost 2% MoM as steel output declined following the seasonal slump in construction activity. Cumulative iron ore imports are up 6.5% YoY to 975.8mt.
On the export side, China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium product shipments fell 8.1% YoY to 440.3kt last month, while year-to-date exports declined 17% YoY to 4.7mt over the first ten months of the year. Meanwhile, exports of steel products jumped 34.8% YoY to 74.7mt during Jan’23-Oct’23.
Agriculture – Chinese soybean imports surge
The latest trade numbers from China show that soybean imports rose 25% YoY to 5.2mt in October as domestic crushers increased purchases taking advantage of higher supplies from Brazil. Cumulative imports rose 14.6% YoY to 82.4mt over the first ten months of the year.
Weekly data from the European Commission show that soft wheat shipments for the season so far fell 25% YoY to 9.95mt as of 2 November. Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria were the top destinations for these shipments. The commission added that corn imports over the same period stood at 5.8mt, down 43% compared to a year ago. Weaker corn imports reflect a recovery in EU corn production this season.
Source: ING
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Tuesday, 14 November 23
CHINA'S BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE TURNS AWAY FROM COAL - WOOD MACKENZIE
Ambitious, contentious and big spending, China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is 10 years old. In that time, China has splashed more than U ...
Friday, 10 November 23
COAL USE AT U.S. POWER PLANTS CONTINUES DOWNWARD SPIRAL; FULL IMPACT ON MINES TO BE FELT IN 2024 - IEEFA
This year, the use of coal by the U.S.’s power producers has been so anemic that the fuel has not achieved a 20% market share in any month so ...
Friday, 10 November 23
INDIA: NATIONAL COAL INDEX RISES 3.83 POINTS IN SEPTEMBER AMID HIGHER DEMAND - LIVEMINT
The National Coal Index (NCI) rose 3.83 points to 143.91 in September amid growing demand for coal.
The union coal ministry on Tuesd ...
Thursday, 09 November 23
WE'RE PRODUCING TOO MUCH COAL, OIL AND GAS, REPORT SAYS - WSJ
World leaders pledged in 2015 to reduce emissions in a combined effort to limit climate change.
Now they are stepping up production ...
Thursday, 09 November 23
GREEK AND CHINESE COMPANIES OWN 34% OF THE GLOBAL FLEET’S CARGO CAPACITY - BIMCO
“The global fleet of cargo carrying ships consists of around 61,000 ships with a deadweight capacity of about 2,200 million tonnes. The ships ...
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- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- The University of Queensland
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PTC India Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- MS Steel International - UAE
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- White Energy Company Limited
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
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