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Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and traded to its lowest level since July. Meanwhile, NYMEX WTI settled below US$80/bbl for the first time since August. The market is clearly less concerned about the potential for Middle Eastern supply disruptions and is instead focused on an easing in the balance. Prompt time spreads have weakened, suggesting a less tight physical market. And while there are clear demand concerns hovering over the market, supply dynamics have also played a role. For example, Russian seaborne crude oil exports have grown in recent months, which suggests that Russia is not sticking to its additional voluntary cut.
The recent price weakness is likely to lead to growing noise from OPEC+ and in particular from Saudi Arabia. Whilst Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed that they would continue with their additional voluntary cuts through until the year-end, it is increasingly likely that they will extend this into the new year if this downward pressure continues. The Saudis would like to keep Brent above US$80/bbl, as this is roughly where their fiscal breakeven price is. Our oil balance shows that the market will be in surplus in 1Q24, so further cuts are something we could certainly see.
The weakness seen yesterday is likely to continue today. The API released inventory numbers overnight which were bearish. US crude oil inventories increased by 11.9MMbbls over the last week, while Cushing crude oil stocks grew by 1.1MMbbls. For refined products, gasoline inventories fell by 400Mbbls and distillate fuel oil stocks increased by 1MMbbls. The more widely followed EIA inventory report will be released later today.
In the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, there was little change to US crude oil production estimates. US crude oil output is expected to average 12.9MMbbls/d this year, up 1MMbbls/d YoY, while supply growth is expected to be much more modest next year, increasing by less than 250Mbbls/d to average 13.15MMbbls/d
Chinese October trade data released yesterday showed a fall in the trade surplus last month with weaker exports. However, imports were stronger, including crude oil. Crude oil imports averaged 11.58MMbbls/d in the month, up 3.7% MoM and 13.5% higher YoY. This leaves cumulative imports for the year at 11.41MMbbls/d, up 14.4% YoY. Stronger imports over the course of this year may reflect a recovery in domestic demand, while there will also be a fair amount of stock building.
Metals – China boosts gold reserves
China expanded its gold reserves for a twelfth straight month in October, according to the latest data from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). The country raised its gold reserves by around 23 tonnes to a total of 2,215 tonnes last month. China has added about 266 tonnes of gold in the last twelve months through October. In general, central bank demand over the third quarter has been strong, because of the geopolitical environment, and with this uncertainty set to linger, we are likely to see central banks continuing to add to their holdings in the coming months.
China released its preliminary trade data for metals yesterday which shows total monthly imports for unwrought copper jumped 23.7% YoY (+4% MoM) to 500.2kt in October due to declining domestic inventories and firm demand. However, cumulative imports are still down 6.7% YoY to total 4.49mt over the first ten months of the year as stronger domestic production weighed on overseas purchases. Imports of copper concentrate rose 11.3% YoY to 2.31mt last month, while year-to-date imports rose 9.2% YoY to 22.6mt. In ferrous metals, iron ore imports rose 4.6% YoY to 99.4mt in October, however, were down almost 2% MoM as steel output declined following the seasonal slump in construction activity. Cumulative iron ore imports are up 6.5% YoY to 975.8mt.
On the export side, China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium product shipments fell 8.1% YoY to 440.3kt last month, while year-to-date exports declined 17% YoY to 4.7mt over the first ten months of the year. Meanwhile, exports of steel products jumped 34.8% YoY to 74.7mt during Jan’23-Oct’23.
Agriculture – Chinese soybean imports surge
The latest trade numbers from China show that soybean imports rose 25% YoY to 5.2mt in October as domestic crushers increased purchases taking advantage of higher supplies from Brazil. Cumulative imports rose 14.6% YoY to 82.4mt over the first ten months of the year.
Weekly data from the European Commission show that soft wheat shipments for the season so far fell 25% YoY to 9.95mt as of 2 November. Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria were the top destinations for these shipments. The commission added that corn imports over the same period stood at 5.8mt, down 43% compared to a year ago. Weaker corn imports reflect a recovery in EU corn production this season.
Source: ING
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Wednesday, 22 November 23
INDIA: GOVERNMENT PLANS 1.4 BILLION TONNE COAL OUTPUT BY 2027 - LIVEMINT
The Union coal ministry on Monday announced plans to increase India’s coal production to 1.404 billion tonne by 2027, with an eye to further ...
Wednesday, 22 November 23
OBLIGATION. INDONESIA AIMS TO START COLLECTING LEVIES FROM COAL MINERS IN JANUARY - REUTERS
Indonesia plans to start collecting levies from coal miners in January to be used to compensate miners who sell coal to the state utility at lower ...
Tuesday, 21 November 23
INDIAN COAL POWER PLANTS’ CAPACITY UTILISATION WILL IMPROVE TO 65% THIS FISCAL: - CRISIL
Coal-based thermal power units’ plant load factor (PLF) or capacity utilisation will improve to 65 percent in the current fiscal year despite ...
Tuesday, 14 November 23
CAPITAL PRODUCT PARTNERS L.P. ANNOUNCES TRANSFORMATIVE TRANSACTION INCLUDING THE ACQUISITION OF 11 NEWBUILD LNG CARRIERS FOR $3.1 BILLION
Capital Product Partners L.P. announced that it has entered into an umbrella agreement (the “Umbrella Agreement”) with Capital Maritime ...
Tuesday, 14 November 23
COAL INDIA BEATS Q2 PROFIT VIEW ON HIGH POWER DEMAND AMID WEAK MONSOON - REUTERS
Coal India on Friday reported better-than-expected second-quarter profit, helped by high power demand and boosted production amid a weak monsoon.
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- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PTC India Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- The University of Queensland
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Planning Commission, India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
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