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Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and traded to its lowest level since July. Meanwhile, NYMEX WTI settled below US$80/bbl for the first time since August. The market is clearly less concerned about the potential for Middle Eastern supply disruptions and is instead focused on an easing in the balance. Prompt time spreads have weakened, suggesting a less tight physical market. And while there are clear demand concerns hovering over the market, supply dynamics have also played a role. For example, Russian seaborne crude oil exports have grown in recent months, which suggests that Russia is not sticking to its additional voluntary cut.
The recent price weakness is likely to lead to growing noise from OPEC+ and in particular from Saudi Arabia. Whilst Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed that they would continue with their additional voluntary cuts through until the year-end, it is increasingly likely that they will extend this into the new year if this downward pressure continues. The Saudis would like to keep Brent above US$80/bbl, as this is roughly where their fiscal breakeven price is. Our oil balance shows that the market will be in surplus in 1Q24, so further cuts are something we could certainly see.
The weakness seen yesterday is likely to continue today. The API released inventory numbers overnight which were bearish. US crude oil inventories increased by 11.9MMbbls over the last week, while Cushing crude oil stocks grew by 1.1MMbbls. For refined products, gasoline inventories fell by 400Mbbls and distillate fuel oil stocks increased by 1MMbbls. The more widely followed EIA inventory report will be released later today.
In the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, there was little change to US crude oil production estimates. US crude oil output is expected to average 12.9MMbbls/d this year, up 1MMbbls/d YoY, while supply growth is expected to be much more modest next year, increasing by less than 250Mbbls/d to average 13.15MMbbls/d
Chinese October trade data released yesterday showed a fall in the trade surplus last month with weaker exports. However, imports were stronger, including crude oil. Crude oil imports averaged 11.58MMbbls/d in the month, up 3.7% MoM and 13.5% higher YoY. This leaves cumulative imports for the year at 11.41MMbbls/d, up 14.4% YoY. Stronger imports over the course of this year may reflect a recovery in domestic demand, while there will also be a fair amount of stock building.
Metals – China boosts gold reserves
China expanded its gold reserves for a twelfth straight month in October, according to the latest data from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). The country raised its gold reserves by around 23 tonnes to a total of 2,215 tonnes last month. China has added about 266 tonnes of gold in the last twelve months through October. In general, central bank demand over the third quarter has been strong, because of the geopolitical environment, and with this uncertainty set to linger, we are likely to see central banks continuing to add to their holdings in the coming months.
China released its preliminary trade data for metals yesterday which shows total monthly imports for unwrought copper jumped 23.7% YoY (+4% MoM) to 500.2kt in October due to declining domestic inventories and firm demand. However, cumulative imports are still down 6.7% YoY to total 4.49mt over the first ten months of the year as stronger domestic production weighed on overseas purchases. Imports of copper concentrate rose 11.3% YoY to 2.31mt last month, while year-to-date imports rose 9.2% YoY to 22.6mt. In ferrous metals, iron ore imports rose 4.6% YoY to 99.4mt in October, however, were down almost 2% MoM as steel output declined following the seasonal slump in construction activity. Cumulative iron ore imports are up 6.5% YoY to 975.8mt.
On the export side, China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium product shipments fell 8.1% YoY to 440.3kt last month, while year-to-date exports declined 17% YoY to 4.7mt over the first ten months of the year. Meanwhile, exports of steel products jumped 34.8% YoY to 74.7mt during Jan’23-Oct’23.
Agriculture – Chinese soybean imports surge
The latest trade numbers from China show that soybean imports rose 25% YoY to 5.2mt in October as domestic crushers increased purchases taking advantage of higher supplies from Brazil. Cumulative imports rose 14.6% YoY to 82.4mt over the first ten months of the year.
Weekly data from the European Commission show that soft wheat shipments for the season so far fell 25% YoY to 9.95mt as of 2 November. Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria were the top destinations for these shipments. The commission added that corn imports over the same period stood at 5.8mt, down 43% compared to a year ago. Weaker corn imports reflect a recovery in EU corn production this season.
Source: ING
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Wednesday, 22 November 23
INDIA: GOVERNMENT PLANS 1.4 BILLION TONNE COAL OUTPUT BY 2027 - LIVEMINT
The Union coal ministry on Monday announced plans to increase India’s coal production to 1.404 billion tonne by 2027, with an eye to further ...
Wednesday, 22 November 23
OBLIGATION. INDONESIA AIMS TO START COLLECTING LEVIES FROM COAL MINERS IN JANUARY - REUTERS
Indonesia plans to start collecting levies from coal miners in January to be used to compensate miners who sell coal to the state utility at lower ...
Tuesday, 21 November 23
INDIAN COAL POWER PLANTS’ CAPACITY UTILISATION WILL IMPROVE TO 65% THIS FISCAL: - CRISIL
Coal-based thermal power units’ plant load factor (PLF) or capacity utilisation will improve to 65 percent in the current fiscal year despite ...
Tuesday, 14 November 23
CAPITAL PRODUCT PARTNERS L.P. ANNOUNCES TRANSFORMATIVE TRANSACTION INCLUDING THE ACQUISITION OF 11 NEWBUILD LNG CARRIERS FOR $3.1 BILLION
Capital Product Partners L.P. announced that it has entered into an umbrella agreement (the “Umbrella Agreement”) with Capital Maritime ...
Tuesday, 14 November 23
COAL INDIA BEATS Q2 PROFIT VIEW ON HIGH POWER DEMAND AMID WEAK MONSOON - REUTERS
Coal India on Friday reported better-than-expected second-quarter profit, helped by high power demand and boosted production amid a weak monsoon.
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- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PTC India Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Australian Coal Association
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
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