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Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and traded to its lowest level since July. Meanwhile, NYMEX WTI settled below US$80/bbl for the first time since August. The market is clearly less concerned about the potential for Middle Eastern supply disruptions and is instead focused on an easing in the balance. Prompt time spreads have weakened, suggesting a less tight physical market. And while there are clear demand concerns hovering over the market, supply dynamics have also played a role. For example, Russian seaborne crude oil exports have grown in recent months, which suggests that Russia is not sticking to its additional voluntary cut.
The recent price weakness is likely to lead to growing noise from OPEC+ and in particular from Saudi Arabia. Whilst Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed that they would continue with their additional voluntary cuts through until the year-end, it is increasingly likely that they will extend this into the new year if this downward pressure continues. The Saudis would like to keep Brent above US$80/bbl, as this is roughly where their fiscal breakeven price is. Our oil balance shows that the market will be in surplus in 1Q24, so further cuts are something we could certainly see.
The weakness seen yesterday is likely to continue today. The API released inventory numbers overnight which were bearish. US crude oil inventories increased by 11.9MMbbls over the last week, while Cushing crude oil stocks grew by 1.1MMbbls. For refined products, gasoline inventories fell by 400Mbbls and distillate fuel oil stocks increased by 1MMbbls. The more widely followed EIA inventory report will be released later today.
In the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, there was little change to US crude oil production estimates. US crude oil output is expected to average 12.9MMbbls/d this year, up 1MMbbls/d YoY, while supply growth is expected to be much more modest next year, increasing by less than 250Mbbls/d to average 13.15MMbbls/d
Chinese October trade data released yesterday showed a fall in the trade surplus last month with weaker exports. However, imports were stronger, including crude oil. Crude oil imports averaged 11.58MMbbls/d in the month, up 3.7% MoM and 13.5% higher YoY. This leaves cumulative imports for the year at 11.41MMbbls/d, up 14.4% YoY. Stronger imports over the course of this year may reflect a recovery in domestic demand, while there will also be a fair amount of stock building.
Metals – China boosts gold reserves
China expanded its gold reserves for a twelfth straight month in October, according to the latest data from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). The country raised its gold reserves by around 23 tonnes to a total of 2,215 tonnes last month. China has added about 266 tonnes of gold in the last twelve months through October. In general, central bank demand over the third quarter has been strong, because of the geopolitical environment, and with this uncertainty set to linger, we are likely to see central banks continuing to add to their holdings in the coming months.
China released its preliminary trade data for metals yesterday which shows total monthly imports for unwrought copper jumped 23.7% YoY (+4% MoM) to 500.2kt in October due to declining domestic inventories and firm demand. However, cumulative imports are still down 6.7% YoY to total 4.49mt over the first ten months of the year as stronger domestic production weighed on overseas purchases. Imports of copper concentrate rose 11.3% YoY to 2.31mt last month, while year-to-date imports rose 9.2% YoY to 22.6mt. In ferrous metals, iron ore imports rose 4.6% YoY to 99.4mt in October, however, were down almost 2% MoM as steel output declined following the seasonal slump in construction activity. Cumulative iron ore imports are up 6.5% YoY to 975.8mt.
On the export side, China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium product shipments fell 8.1% YoY to 440.3kt last month, while year-to-date exports declined 17% YoY to 4.7mt over the first ten months of the year. Meanwhile, exports of steel products jumped 34.8% YoY to 74.7mt during Jan’23-Oct’23.
Agriculture – Chinese soybean imports surge
The latest trade numbers from China show that soybean imports rose 25% YoY to 5.2mt in October as domestic crushers increased purchases taking advantage of higher supplies from Brazil. Cumulative imports rose 14.6% YoY to 82.4mt over the first ten months of the year.
Weekly data from the European Commission show that soft wheat shipments for the season so far fell 25% YoY to 9.95mt as of 2 November. Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria were the top destinations for these shipments. The commission added that corn imports over the same period stood at 5.8mt, down 43% compared to a year ago. Weaker corn imports reflect a recovery in EU corn production this season.
Source: ING
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Friday, 05 January 24
BANGLADESH’S 2023 COAL-FIRED POWER OUTPUT TRIPLED, EASING SHORTAGES - REUTERS
Bangladesh nearly tripled its coal-fired power output in 2023, a Reuters analysis of government data showed, helping it tide over the worst power s ...
Tuesday, 02 January 24
COAL TRADE CONTINUES TO HEAD EAST - BALTIC EXCHANGE
The global coal trade, once concentrated in the Pacific and Atlantic basins, is undergoing a significant transformation, as highlighted in the Inte ...
Tuesday, 02 January 24
COAL CARGOES: AVOIDING EXPLOSION AND SELF-HEATING - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Despite its contribution to greenhouse gas emissions, global coal consumption climbed to an all-time high in 2022 and is ...
Tuesday, 02 January 24
SINOPEC FORECASTS CHINA’S COAL CONSUMPTION TO PEAK AROUND 2025 - REUTERS
China Petrochemical Corp, or Sinopec, expects coal consumption to peak around 2025 at 4.37 billion metric tons, the state energy group said in an o ...
Thursday, 07 December 23
CHINA TO SET UP COAL PRODUCTION RESERVE TO STABILISE PRICES - REUTERS
China will establish a back-up coal production system by 2027 to stabilise prices and secure coal supply, the state planner said on Wednesday, even ...
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- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Australian Coal Association
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- VISA Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- The University of Queensland
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- White Energy Company Limited
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
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