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Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and traded to its lowest level since July. Meanwhile, NYMEX WTI settled below US$80/bbl for the first time since August. The market is clearly less concerned about the potential for Middle Eastern supply disruptions and is instead focused on an easing in the balance. Prompt time spreads have weakened, suggesting a less tight physical market. And while there are clear demand concerns hovering over the market, supply dynamics have also played a role. For example, Russian seaborne crude oil exports have grown in recent months, which suggests that Russia is not sticking to its additional voluntary cut.
The recent price weakness is likely to lead to growing noise from OPEC+ and in particular from Saudi Arabia. Whilst Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed that they would continue with their additional voluntary cuts through until the year-end, it is increasingly likely that they will extend this into the new year if this downward pressure continues. The Saudis would like to keep Brent above US$80/bbl, as this is roughly where their fiscal breakeven price is. Our oil balance shows that the market will be in surplus in 1Q24, so further cuts are something we could certainly see.
The weakness seen yesterday is likely to continue today. The API released inventory numbers overnight which were bearish. US crude oil inventories increased by 11.9MMbbls over the last week, while Cushing crude oil stocks grew by 1.1MMbbls. For refined products, gasoline inventories fell by 400Mbbls and distillate fuel oil stocks increased by 1MMbbls. The more widely followed EIA inventory report will be released later today.
In the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, there was little change to US crude oil production estimates. US crude oil output is expected to average 12.9MMbbls/d this year, up 1MMbbls/d YoY, while supply growth is expected to be much more modest next year, increasing by less than 250Mbbls/d to average 13.15MMbbls/d
Chinese October trade data released yesterday showed a fall in the trade surplus last month with weaker exports. However, imports were stronger, including crude oil. Crude oil imports averaged 11.58MMbbls/d in the month, up 3.7% MoM and 13.5% higher YoY. This leaves cumulative imports for the year at 11.41MMbbls/d, up 14.4% YoY. Stronger imports over the course of this year may reflect a recovery in domestic demand, while there will also be a fair amount of stock building.
Metals – China boosts gold reserves
China expanded its gold reserves for a twelfth straight month in October, according to the latest data from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). The country raised its gold reserves by around 23 tonnes to a total of 2,215 tonnes last month. China has added about 266 tonnes of gold in the last twelve months through October. In general, central bank demand over the third quarter has been strong, because of the geopolitical environment, and with this uncertainty set to linger, we are likely to see central banks continuing to add to their holdings in the coming months.
China released its preliminary trade data for metals yesterday which shows total monthly imports for unwrought copper jumped 23.7% YoY (+4% MoM) to 500.2kt in October due to declining domestic inventories and firm demand. However, cumulative imports are still down 6.7% YoY to total 4.49mt over the first ten months of the year as stronger domestic production weighed on overseas purchases. Imports of copper concentrate rose 11.3% YoY to 2.31mt last month, while year-to-date imports rose 9.2% YoY to 22.6mt. In ferrous metals, iron ore imports rose 4.6% YoY to 99.4mt in October, however, were down almost 2% MoM as steel output declined following the seasonal slump in construction activity. Cumulative iron ore imports are up 6.5% YoY to 975.8mt.
On the export side, China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium product shipments fell 8.1% YoY to 440.3kt last month, while year-to-date exports declined 17% YoY to 4.7mt over the first ten months of the year. Meanwhile, exports of steel products jumped 34.8% YoY to 74.7mt during Jan’23-Oct’23.
Agriculture – Chinese soybean imports surge
The latest trade numbers from China show that soybean imports rose 25% YoY to 5.2mt in October as domestic crushers increased purchases taking advantage of higher supplies from Brazil. Cumulative imports rose 14.6% YoY to 82.4mt over the first ten months of the year.
Weekly data from the European Commission show that soft wheat shipments for the season so far fell 25% YoY to 9.95mt as of 2 November. Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria were the top destinations for these shipments. The commission added that corn imports over the same period stood at 5.8mt, down 43% compared to a year ago. Weaker corn imports reflect a recovery in EU corn production this season.
Source: ING
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Friday, 05 January 24
BANGLADESH’S 2023 COAL-FIRED POWER OUTPUT TRIPLED, EASING SHORTAGES - REUTERS
Bangladesh nearly tripled its coal-fired power output in 2023, a Reuters analysis of government data showed, helping it tide over the worst power s ...
Tuesday, 02 January 24
COAL TRADE CONTINUES TO HEAD EAST - BALTIC EXCHANGE
The global coal trade, once concentrated in the Pacific and Atlantic basins, is undergoing a significant transformation, as highlighted in the Inte ...
Tuesday, 02 January 24
COAL CARGOES: AVOIDING EXPLOSION AND SELF-HEATING - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Despite its contribution to greenhouse gas emissions, global coal consumption climbed to an all-time high in 2022 and is ...
Tuesday, 02 January 24
SINOPEC FORECASTS CHINA’S COAL CONSUMPTION TO PEAK AROUND 2025 - REUTERS
China Petrochemical Corp, or Sinopec, expects coal consumption to peak around 2025 at 4.37 billion metric tons, the state energy group said in an o ...
Thursday, 07 December 23
CHINA TO SET UP COAL PRODUCTION RESERVE TO STABILISE PRICES - REUTERS
China will establish a back-up coal production system by 2027 to stabilise prices and secure coal supply, the state planner said on Wednesday, even ...
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- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
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