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Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and traded to its lowest level since July. Meanwhile, NYMEX WTI settled below US$80/bbl for the first time since August. The market is clearly less concerned about the potential for Middle Eastern supply disruptions and is instead focused on an easing in the balance. Prompt time spreads have weakened, suggesting a less tight physical market. And while there are clear demand concerns hovering over the market, supply dynamics have also played a role. For example, Russian seaborne crude oil exports have grown in recent months, which suggests that Russia is not sticking to its additional voluntary cut.
The recent price weakness is likely to lead to growing noise from OPEC+ and in particular from Saudi Arabia. Whilst Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed that they would continue with their additional voluntary cuts through until the year-end, it is increasingly likely that they will extend this into the new year if this downward pressure continues. The Saudis would like to keep Brent above US$80/bbl, as this is roughly where their fiscal breakeven price is. Our oil balance shows that the market will be in surplus in 1Q24, so further cuts are something we could certainly see.
The weakness seen yesterday is likely to continue today. The API released inventory numbers overnight which were bearish. US crude oil inventories increased by 11.9MMbbls over the last week, while Cushing crude oil stocks grew by 1.1MMbbls. For refined products, gasoline inventories fell by 400Mbbls and distillate fuel oil stocks increased by 1MMbbls. The more widely followed EIA inventory report will be released later today.
In the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, there was little change to US crude oil production estimates. US crude oil output is expected to average 12.9MMbbls/d this year, up 1MMbbls/d YoY, while supply growth is expected to be much more modest next year, increasing by less than 250Mbbls/d to average 13.15MMbbls/d
Chinese October trade data released yesterday showed a fall in the trade surplus last month with weaker exports. However, imports were stronger, including crude oil. Crude oil imports averaged 11.58MMbbls/d in the month, up 3.7% MoM and 13.5% higher YoY. This leaves cumulative imports for the year at 11.41MMbbls/d, up 14.4% YoY. Stronger imports over the course of this year may reflect a recovery in domestic demand, while there will also be a fair amount of stock building.
Metals – China boosts gold reserves
China expanded its gold reserves for a twelfth straight month in October, according to the latest data from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). The country raised its gold reserves by around 23 tonnes to a total of 2,215 tonnes last month. China has added about 266 tonnes of gold in the last twelve months through October. In general, central bank demand over the third quarter has been strong, because of the geopolitical environment, and with this uncertainty set to linger, we are likely to see central banks continuing to add to their holdings in the coming months.
China released its preliminary trade data for metals yesterday which shows total monthly imports for unwrought copper jumped 23.7% YoY (+4% MoM) to 500.2kt in October due to declining domestic inventories and firm demand. However, cumulative imports are still down 6.7% YoY to total 4.49mt over the first ten months of the year as stronger domestic production weighed on overseas purchases. Imports of copper concentrate rose 11.3% YoY to 2.31mt last month, while year-to-date imports rose 9.2% YoY to 22.6mt. In ferrous metals, iron ore imports rose 4.6% YoY to 99.4mt in October, however, were down almost 2% MoM as steel output declined following the seasonal slump in construction activity. Cumulative iron ore imports are up 6.5% YoY to 975.8mt.
On the export side, China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium product shipments fell 8.1% YoY to 440.3kt last month, while year-to-date exports declined 17% YoY to 4.7mt over the first ten months of the year. Meanwhile, exports of steel products jumped 34.8% YoY to 74.7mt during Jan’23-Oct’23.
Agriculture – Chinese soybean imports surge
The latest trade numbers from China show that soybean imports rose 25% YoY to 5.2mt in October as domestic crushers increased purchases taking advantage of higher supplies from Brazil. Cumulative imports rose 14.6% YoY to 82.4mt over the first ten months of the year.
Weekly data from the European Commission show that soft wheat shipments for the season so far fell 25% YoY to 9.95mt as of 2 November. Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria were the top destinations for these shipments. The commission added that corn imports over the same period stood at 5.8mt, down 43% compared to a year ago. Weaker corn imports reflect a recovery in EU corn production this season.
Source: ING
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Friday, 01 December 23
COAL MINERS GROUP EXPECTS INDONESIA’S 2023 COAL OUTPUT TO SURPASS TARGET - REUTERS
The Indonesian Coal Mining Association (ICMA) expects the country’s 2023 coal output to surpass the official target of 695 million metric ton ...
Friday, 24 November 23
COAL IMPORTS TO INDIA IN OCTOBER 2023 REACHED HIGHEST LEVELS IN NEARLY A YEAR AND A HALF - VESSELSVALUE, VESON NAUTICAL
In October, coal imports to India reached 13.8 mt in October 2023, according to Oceanbolt, a Veson Nautical solution, the highest level since May 2 ...
Friday, 24 November 23
COAL SHIPMENTS TO ADVANCED ECONOMIES DOWN 17% SO FAR IN 2023 - BIMCO
In the first ten months of 2023, coal shipments to advanced economies fell by 17% y/y, as demand for electricity declined and the share of electric ...
Friday, 24 November 23
INTELLIGENT COAL MINES CONTRIBUTE TO IMPROVING SAFETY STANDARDS - CHINA DAILY
Mechanization, automation and intelligent upgrades have contributed to improved safety in coal mines, though the level of development of intelligen ...
Friday, 24 November 23
WHY AUSTRALIA'S COAL MINES ARE GETTING BIGGER - IEEFA
Australia’s largest coal mines are getting larger. Mines in New South Wales (NSW) are ramping up production following the state’s recov ...
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- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Australian Coal Association
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
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