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Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and traded to its lowest level since July. Meanwhile, NYMEX WTI settled below US$80/bbl for the first time since August. The market is clearly less concerned about the potential for Middle Eastern supply disruptions and is instead focused on an easing in the balance. Prompt time spreads have weakened, suggesting a less tight physical market. And while there are clear demand concerns hovering over the market, supply dynamics have also played a role. For example, Russian seaborne crude oil exports have grown in recent months, which suggests that Russia is not sticking to its additional voluntary cut.
The recent price weakness is likely to lead to growing noise from OPEC+ and in particular from Saudi Arabia. Whilst Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed that they would continue with their additional voluntary cuts through until the year-end, it is increasingly likely that they will extend this into the new year if this downward pressure continues. The Saudis would like to keep Brent above US$80/bbl, as this is roughly where their fiscal breakeven price is. Our oil balance shows that the market will be in surplus in 1Q24, so further cuts are something we could certainly see.
The weakness seen yesterday is likely to continue today. The API released inventory numbers overnight which were bearish. US crude oil inventories increased by 11.9MMbbls over the last week, while Cushing crude oil stocks grew by 1.1MMbbls. For refined products, gasoline inventories fell by 400Mbbls and distillate fuel oil stocks increased by 1MMbbls. The more widely followed EIA inventory report will be released later today.
In the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, there was little change to US crude oil production estimates. US crude oil output is expected to average 12.9MMbbls/d this year, up 1MMbbls/d YoY, while supply growth is expected to be much more modest next year, increasing by less than 250Mbbls/d to average 13.15MMbbls/d
Chinese October trade data released yesterday showed a fall in the trade surplus last month with weaker exports. However, imports were stronger, including crude oil. Crude oil imports averaged 11.58MMbbls/d in the month, up 3.7% MoM and 13.5% higher YoY. This leaves cumulative imports for the year at 11.41MMbbls/d, up 14.4% YoY. Stronger imports over the course of this year may reflect a recovery in domestic demand, while there will also be a fair amount of stock building.
Metals – China boosts gold reserves
China expanded its gold reserves for a twelfth straight month in October, according to the latest data from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). The country raised its gold reserves by around 23 tonnes to a total of 2,215 tonnes last month. China has added about 266 tonnes of gold in the last twelve months through October. In general, central bank demand over the third quarter has been strong, because of the geopolitical environment, and with this uncertainty set to linger, we are likely to see central banks continuing to add to their holdings in the coming months.
China released its preliminary trade data for metals yesterday which shows total monthly imports for unwrought copper jumped 23.7% YoY (+4% MoM) to 500.2kt in October due to declining domestic inventories and firm demand. However, cumulative imports are still down 6.7% YoY to total 4.49mt over the first ten months of the year as stronger domestic production weighed on overseas purchases. Imports of copper concentrate rose 11.3% YoY to 2.31mt last month, while year-to-date imports rose 9.2% YoY to 22.6mt. In ferrous metals, iron ore imports rose 4.6% YoY to 99.4mt in October, however, were down almost 2% MoM as steel output declined following the seasonal slump in construction activity. Cumulative iron ore imports are up 6.5% YoY to 975.8mt.
On the export side, China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium product shipments fell 8.1% YoY to 440.3kt last month, while year-to-date exports declined 17% YoY to 4.7mt over the first ten months of the year. Meanwhile, exports of steel products jumped 34.8% YoY to 74.7mt during Jan’23-Oct’23.
Agriculture – Chinese soybean imports surge
The latest trade numbers from China show that soybean imports rose 25% YoY to 5.2mt in October as domestic crushers increased purchases taking advantage of higher supplies from Brazil. Cumulative imports rose 14.6% YoY to 82.4mt over the first ten months of the year.
Weekly data from the European Commission show that soft wheat shipments for the season so far fell 25% YoY to 9.95mt as of 2 November. Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria were the top destinations for these shipments. The commission added that corn imports over the same period stood at 5.8mt, down 43% compared to a year ago. Weaker corn imports reflect a recovery in EU corn production this season.
Source: ING
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Friday, 01 December 23
COAL MINERS GROUP EXPECTS INDONESIA’S 2023 COAL OUTPUT TO SURPASS TARGET - REUTERS
The Indonesian Coal Mining Association (ICMA) expects the country’s 2023 coal output to surpass the official target of 695 million metric ton ...
Friday, 24 November 23
COAL IMPORTS TO INDIA IN OCTOBER 2023 REACHED HIGHEST LEVELS IN NEARLY A YEAR AND A HALF - VESSELSVALUE, VESON NAUTICAL
In October, coal imports to India reached 13.8 mt in October 2023, according to Oceanbolt, a Veson Nautical solution, the highest level since May 2 ...
Friday, 24 November 23
COAL SHIPMENTS TO ADVANCED ECONOMIES DOWN 17% SO FAR IN 2023 - BIMCO
In the first ten months of 2023, coal shipments to advanced economies fell by 17% y/y, as demand for electricity declined and the share of electric ...
Friday, 24 November 23
INTELLIGENT COAL MINES CONTRIBUTE TO IMPROVING SAFETY STANDARDS - CHINA DAILY
Mechanization, automation and intelligent upgrades have contributed to improved safety in coal mines, though the level of development of intelligen ...
Friday, 24 November 23
WHY AUSTRALIA'S COAL MINES ARE GETTING BIGGER - IEEFA
Australia’s largest coal mines are getting larger. Mines in New South Wales (NSW) are ramping up production following the state’s recov ...
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- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
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