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Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and traded to its lowest level since July. Meanwhile, NYMEX WTI settled below US$80/bbl for the first time since August. The market is clearly less concerned about the potential for Middle Eastern supply disruptions and is instead focused on an easing in the balance. Prompt time spreads have weakened, suggesting a less tight physical market. And while there are clear demand concerns hovering over the market, supply dynamics have also played a role. For example, Russian seaborne crude oil exports have grown in recent months, which suggests that Russia is not sticking to its additional voluntary cut.
The recent price weakness is likely to lead to growing noise from OPEC+ and in particular from Saudi Arabia. Whilst Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed that they would continue with their additional voluntary cuts through until the year-end, it is increasingly likely that they will extend this into the new year if this downward pressure continues. The Saudis would like to keep Brent above US$80/bbl, as this is roughly where their fiscal breakeven price is. Our oil balance shows that the market will be in surplus in 1Q24, so further cuts are something we could certainly see.
The weakness seen yesterday is likely to continue today. The API released inventory numbers overnight which were bearish. US crude oil inventories increased by 11.9MMbbls over the last week, while Cushing crude oil stocks grew by 1.1MMbbls. For refined products, gasoline inventories fell by 400Mbbls and distillate fuel oil stocks increased by 1MMbbls. The more widely followed EIA inventory report will be released later today.
In the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, there was little change to US crude oil production estimates. US crude oil output is expected to average 12.9MMbbls/d this year, up 1MMbbls/d YoY, while supply growth is expected to be much more modest next year, increasing by less than 250Mbbls/d to average 13.15MMbbls/d
Chinese October trade data released yesterday showed a fall in the trade surplus last month with weaker exports. However, imports were stronger, including crude oil. Crude oil imports averaged 11.58MMbbls/d in the month, up 3.7% MoM and 13.5% higher YoY. This leaves cumulative imports for the year at 11.41MMbbls/d, up 14.4% YoY. Stronger imports over the course of this year may reflect a recovery in domestic demand, while there will also be a fair amount of stock building.
Metals – China boosts gold reserves
China expanded its gold reserves for a twelfth straight month in October, according to the latest data from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). The country raised its gold reserves by around 23 tonnes to a total of 2,215 tonnes last month. China has added about 266 tonnes of gold in the last twelve months through October. In general, central bank demand over the third quarter has been strong, because of the geopolitical environment, and with this uncertainty set to linger, we are likely to see central banks continuing to add to their holdings in the coming months.
China released its preliminary trade data for metals yesterday which shows total monthly imports for unwrought copper jumped 23.7% YoY (+4% MoM) to 500.2kt in October due to declining domestic inventories and firm demand. However, cumulative imports are still down 6.7% YoY to total 4.49mt over the first ten months of the year as stronger domestic production weighed on overseas purchases. Imports of copper concentrate rose 11.3% YoY to 2.31mt last month, while year-to-date imports rose 9.2% YoY to 22.6mt. In ferrous metals, iron ore imports rose 4.6% YoY to 99.4mt in October, however, were down almost 2% MoM as steel output declined following the seasonal slump in construction activity. Cumulative iron ore imports are up 6.5% YoY to 975.8mt.
On the export side, China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium product shipments fell 8.1% YoY to 440.3kt last month, while year-to-date exports declined 17% YoY to 4.7mt over the first ten months of the year. Meanwhile, exports of steel products jumped 34.8% YoY to 74.7mt during Jan’23-Oct’23.
Agriculture – Chinese soybean imports surge
The latest trade numbers from China show that soybean imports rose 25% YoY to 5.2mt in October as domestic crushers increased purchases taking advantage of higher supplies from Brazil. Cumulative imports rose 14.6% YoY to 82.4mt over the first ten months of the year.
Weekly data from the European Commission show that soft wheat shipments for the season so far fell 25% YoY to 9.95mt as of 2 November. Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria were the top destinations for these shipments. The commission added that corn imports over the same period stood at 5.8mt, down 43% compared to a year ago. Weaker corn imports reflect a recovery in EU corn production this season.
Source: ING
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Monday, 08 January 24
KOSPO TO BUY 80000 MT OF INDONESIAN LOW CALORIFIC VALUE COAL FOR FEB 2024
Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO), is inviting bids for the supply of Indonesian Low Calorific Value Coal from qualified suppliers for Korean ...
Monday, 08 January 24
SEABORNE TRADE REACHES 12.4BN TONNES - CLARKSONS
China will establish a back-up coal production system by 2027 to stabilise prices and secure coal supply, the state planner said on Wednesday, even ...
Monday, 08 January 24
CAPESIZES START THE NEW YEAR ON POSITIVE NOTE - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Capesize
This week the capsize market has been marked by a mix of activities and challenges. Despite a slow start following the Christmas and N ...
Friday, 05 January 24
MORGAN STANLEY SEES LOWER OIL PRICES IN 2024 ON OVERSUPPLY CONCERNS - REUTERS
Morgan Stanley sees Brent crude prices anchored near $80 per barrel in the first half in 2024 before declining towards the end of the year as it ex ...
Friday, 05 January 24
INDIA'S COAL OUTPUT RISES NEARLY 11 PC IN DEC TO 92.87 MT - PTI
India’s coal production increased by 10.75 per cent to 92.87 million tonne in December 2023 as compared to the year-ago period, an official s ...
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- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- The University of Queensland
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
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