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Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and traded to its lowest level since July. Meanwhile, NYMEX WTI settled below US$80/bbl for the first time since August. The market is clearly less concerned about the potential for Middle Eastern supply disruptions and is instead focused on an easing in the balance. Prompt time spreads have weakened, suggesting a less tight physical market. And while there are clear demand concerns hovering over the market, supply dynamics have also played a role. For example, Russian seaborne crude oil exports have grown in recent months, which suggests that Russia is not sticking to its additional voluntary cut.
The recent price weakness is likely to lead to growing noise from OPEC+ and in particular from Saudi Arabia. Whilst Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed that they would continue with their additional voluntary cuts through until the year-end, it is increasingly likely that they will extend this into the new year if this downward pressure continues. The Saudis would like to keep Brent above US$80/bbl, as this is roughly where their fiscal breakeven price is. Our oil balance shows that the market will be in surplus in 1Q24, so further cuts are something we could certainly see.
The weakness seen yesterday is likely to continue today. The API released inventory numbers overnight which were bearish. US crude oil inventories increased by 11.9MMbbls over the last week, while Cushing crude oil stocks grew by 1.1MMbbls. For refined products, gasoline inventories fell by 400Mbbls and distillate fuel oil stocks increased by 1MMbbls. The more widely followed EIA inventory report will be released later today.
In the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, there was little change to US crude oil production estimates. US crude oil output is expected to average 12.9MMbbls/d this year, up 1MMbbls/d YoY, while supply growth is expected to be much more modest next year, increasing by less than 250Mbbls/d to average 13.15MMbbls/d
Chinese October trade data released yesterday showed a fall in the trade surplus last month with weaker exports. However, imports were stronger, including crude oil. Crude oil imports averaged 11.58MMbbls/d in the month, up 3.7% MoM and 13.5% higher YoY. This leaves cumulative imports for the year at 11.41MMbbls/d, up 14.4% YoY. Stronger imports over the course of this year may reflect a recovery in domestic demand, while there will also be a fair amount of stock building.
Metals – China boosts gold reserves
China expanded its gold reserves for a twelfth straight month in October, according to the latest data from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). The country raised its gold reserves by around 23 tonnes to a total of 2,215 tonnes last month. China has added about 266 tonnes of gold in the last twelve months through October. In general, central bank demand over the third quarter has been strong, because of the geopolitical environment, and with this uncertainty set to linger, we are likely to see central banks continuing to add to their holdings in the coming months.
China released its preliminary trade data for metals yesterday which shows total monthly imports for unwrought copper jumped 23.7% YoY (+4% MoM) to 500.2kt in October due to declining domestic inventories and firm demand. However, cumulative imports are still down 6.7% YoY to total 4.49mt over the first ten months of the year as stronger domestic production weighed on overseas purchases. Imports of copper concentrate rose 11.3% YoY to 2.31mt last month, while year-to-date imports rose 9.2% YoY to 22.6mt. In ferrous metals, iron ore imports rose 4.6% YoY to 99.4mt in October, however, were down almost 2% MoM as steel output declined following the seasonal slump in construction activity. Cumulative iron ore imports are up 6.5% YoY to 975.8mt.
On the export side, China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium product shipments fell 8.1% YoY to 440.3kt last month, while year-to-date exports declined 17% YoY to 4.7mt over the first ten months of the year. Meanwhile, exports of steel products jumped 34.8% YoY to 74.7mt during Jan’23-Oct’23.
Agriculture – Chinese soybean imports surge
The latest trade numbers from China show that soybean imports rose 25% YoY to 5.2mt in October as domestic crushers increased purchases taking advantage of higher supplies from Brazil. Cumulative imports rose 14.6% YoY to 82.4mt over the first ten months of the year.
Weekly data from the European Commission show that soft wheat shipments for the season so far fell 25% YoY to 9.95mt as of 2 November. Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria were the top destinations for these shipments. The commission added that corn imports over the same period stood at 5.8mt, down 43% compared to a year ago. Weaker corn imports reflect a recovery in EU corn production this season.
Source: ING
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Wednesday, 31 January 24
CHINA'S INNER MONGOLIA COAL OUTPUT HIT 1.21B TONS IN 2023 - XINHUA
North China’s Inner Mongolia autonomous region churned out 1.21 billion tons of coal in 2023 as it strives to guarantee the country’s e ...
Wednesday, 31 January 24
GAS EXPORTS COST U.S. CONSUMERS MORE THAN $100 BILLION OVER 16-MONTH PERIOD - IEEFA
Limited Demand Growth Could Dampen the Dry Bulk Market in the Coming Months BIMCOStarting in late 2021—before its invasion of Ukraine—R ...
Tuesday, 30 January 24
LIMITED DEMAND GROWTH COULD DAMPEN THE DRY BULK MARKET IN THE COMING MONTHS - BIMCO
Demand
In our base scenario, we expect cargo demand to grow by 0-1% in 2024 and 0.5-1.5% in 2025. This is a 0.5 percentage point reduction for ...
Friday, 26 January 24
RED SEA DIVERSIONS ADD NEARLY A MILLION DOLLARS PER VOYAGE TO SHIPPING COSTS WHILE DOUBLING TRANSIT TIME - LSEG
The incremental costs of diverting a tanker from Asia to NW Europe via the Cape of Good Hope is accounting for an extra $932,905 USD per voyage whi ...
Friday, 26 January 24
HARD COAL GUARDIAN ANGEL OF THE ENERGY SUPPLY - GERMANY COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION
- No security of supply without hard coal
- The Substitute Power Plant Provision Act (EKBG) must be extended
- Higher grid fees due to the ...
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- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- VISA Power Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
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