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Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and traded to its lowest level since July. Meanwhile, NYMEX WTI settled below US$80/bbl for the first time since August. The market is clearly less concerned about the potential for Middle Eastern supply disruptions and is instead focused on an easing in the balance. Prompt time spreads have weakened, suggesting a less tight physical market. And while there are clear demand concerns hovering over the market, supply dynamics have also played a role. For example, Russian seaborne crude oil exports have grown in recent months, which suggests that Russia is not sticking to its additional voluntary cut.
The recent price weakness is likely to lead to growing noise from OPEC+ and in particular from Saudi Arabia. Whilst Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed that they would continue with their additional voluntary cuts through until the year-end, it is increasingly likely that they will extend this into the new year if this downward pressure continues. The Saudis would like to keep Brent above US$80/bbl, as this is roughly where their fiscal breakeven price is. Our oil balance shows that the market will be in surplus in 1Q24, so further cuts are something we could certainly see.
The weakness seen yesterday is likely to continue today. The API released inventory numbers overnight which were bearish. US crude oil inventories increased by 11.9MMbbls over the last week, while Cushing crude oil stocks grew by 1.1MMbbls. For refined products, gasoline inventories fell by 400Mbbls and distillate fuel oil stocks increased by 1MMbbls. The more widely followed EIA inventory report will be released later today.
In the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, there was little change to US crude oil production estimates. US crude oil output is expected to average 12.9MMbbls/d this year, up 1MMbbls/d YoY, while supply growth is expected to be much more modest next year, increasing by less than 250Mbbls/d to average 13.15MMbbls/d
Chinese October trade data released yesterday showed a fall in the trade surplus last month with weaker exports. However, imports were stronger, including crude oil. Crude oil imports averaged 11.58MMbbls/d in the month, up 3.7% MoM and 13.5% higher YoY. This leaves cumulative imports for the year at 11.41MMbbls/d, up 14.4% YoY. Stronger imports over the course of this year may reflect a recovery in domestic demand, while there will also be a fair amount of stock building.
Metals – China boosts gold reserves
China expanded its gold reserves for a twelfth straight month in October, according to the latest data from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). The country raised its gold reserves by around 23 tonnes to a total of 2,215 tonnes last month. China has added about 266 tonnes of gold in the last twelve months through October. In general, central bank demand over the third quarter has been strong, because of the geopolitical environment, and with this uncertainty set to linger, we are likely to see central banks continuing to add to their holdings in the coming months.
China released its preliminary trade data for metals yesterday which shows total monthly imports for unwrought copper jumped 23.7% YoY (+4% MoM) to 500.2kt in October due to declining domestic inventories and firm demand. However, cumulative imports are still down 6.7% YoY to total 4.49mt over the first ten months of the year as stronger domestic production weighed on overseas purchases. Imports of copper concentrate rose 11.3% YoY to 2.31mt last month, while year-to-date imports rose 9.2% YoY to 22.6mt. In ferrous metals, iron ore imports rose 4.6% YoY to 99.4mt in October, however, were down almost 2% MoM as steel output declined following the seasonal slump in construction activity. Cumulative iron ore imports are up 6.5% YoY to 975.8mt.
On the export side, China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium product shipments fell 8.1% YoY to 440.3kt last month, while year-to-date exports declined 17% YoY to 4.7mt over the first ten months of the year. Meanwhile, exports of steel products jumped 34.8% YoY to 74.7mt during Jan’23-Oct’23.
Agriculture – Chinese soybean imports surge
The latest trade numbers from China show that soybean imports rose 25% YoY to 5.2mt in October as domestic crushers increased purchases taking advantage of higher supplies from Brazil. Cumulative imports rose 14.6% YoY to 82.4mt over the first ten months of the year.
Weekly data from the European Commission show that soft wheat shipments for the season so far fell 25% YoY to 9.95mt as of 2 November. Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria were the top destinations for these shipments. The commission added that corn imports over the same period stood at 5.8mt, down 43% compared to a year ago. Weaker corn imports reflect a recovery in EU corn production this season.
Source: ING
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Wednesday, 31 January 24
CHINA'S INNER MONGOLIA COAL OUTPUT HIT 1.21B TONS IN 2023 - XINHUA
North China’s Inner Mongolia autonomous region churned out 1.21 billion tons of coal in 2023 as it strives to guarantee the country’s e ...
Wednesday, 31 January 24
GAS EXPORTS COST U.S. CONSUMERS MORE THAN $100 BILLION OVER 16-MONTH PERIOD - IEEFA
Limited Demand Growth Could Dampen the Dry Bulk Market in the Coming Months BIMCOStarting in late 2021—before its invasion of Ukraine—R ...
Tuesday, 30 January 24
LIMITED DEMAND GROWTH COULD DAMPEN THE DRY BULK MARKET IN THE COMING MONTHS - BIMCO
Demand
In our base scenario, we expect cargo demand to grow by 0-1% in 2024 and 0.5-1.5% in 2025. This is a 0.5 percentage point reduction for ...
Friday, 26 January 24
RED SEA DIVERSIONS ADD NEARLY A MILLION DOLLARS PER VOYAGE TO SHIPPING COSTS WHILE DOUBLING TRANSIT TIME - LSEG
The incremental costs of diverting a tanker from Asia to NW Europe via the Cape of Good Hope is accounting for an extra $932,905 USD per voyage whi ...
Friday, 26 January 24
HARD COAL GUARDIAN ANGEL OF THE ENERGY SUPPLY - GERMANY COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION
- No security of supply without hard coal
- The Substitute Power Plant Provision Act (EKBG) must be extended
- Higher grid fees due to the ...
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- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- White Energy Company Limited
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Planning Commission, India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Economic Council, Georgia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
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