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Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and traded to its lowest level since July. Meanwhile, NYMEX WTI settled below US$80/bbl for the first time since August. The market is clearly less concerned about the potential for Middle Eastern supply disruptions and is instead focused on an easing in the balance. Prompt time spreads have weakened, suggesting a less tight physical market. And while there are clear demand concerns hovering over the market, supply dynamics have also played a role. For example, Russian seaborne crude oil exports have grown in recent months, which suggests that Russia is not sticking to its additional voluntary cut.
The recent price weakness is likely to lead to growing noise from OPEC+ and in particular from Saudi Arabia. Whilst Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed that they would continue with their additional voluntary cuts through until the year-end, it is increasingly likely that they will extend this into the new year if this downward pressure continues. The Saudis would like to keep Brent above US$80/bbl, as this is roughly where their fiscal breakeven price is. Our oil balance shows that the market will be in surplus in 1Q24, so further cuts are something we could certainly see.
The weakness seen yesterday is likely to continue today. The API released inventory numbers overnight which were bearish. US crude oil inventories increased by 11.9MMbbls over the last week, while Cushing crude oil stocks grew by 1.1MMbbls. For refined products, gasoline inventories fell by 400Mbbls and distillate fuel oil stocks increased by 1MMbbls. The more widely followed EIA inventory report will be released later today.
In the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, there was little change to US crude oil production estimates. US crude oil output is expected to average 12.9MMbbls/d this year, up 1MMbbls/d YoY, while supply growth is expected to be much more modest next year, increasing by less than 250Mbbls/d to average 13.15MMbbls/d
Chinese October trade data released yesterday showed a fall in the trade surplus last month with weaker exports. However, imports were stronger, including crude oil. Crude oil imports averaged 11.58MMbbls/d in the month, up 3.7% MoM and 13.5% higher YoY. This leaves cumulative imports for the year at 11.41MMbbls/d, up 14.4% YoY. Stronger imports over the course of this year may reflect a recovery in domestic demand, while there will also be a fair amount of stock building.
Metals – China boosts gold reserves
China expanded its gold reserves for a twelfth straight month in October, according to the latest data from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). The country raised its gold reserves by around 23 tonnes to a total of 2,215 tonnes last month. China has added about 266 tonnes of gold in the last twelve months through October. In general, central bank demand over the third quarter has been strong, because of the geopolitical environment, and with this uncertainty set to linger, we are likely to see central banks continuing to add to their holdings in the coming months.
China released its preliminary trade data for metals yesterday which shows total monthly imports for unwrought copper jumped 23.7% YoY (+4% MoM) to 500.2kt in October due to declining domestic inventories and firm demand. However, cumulative imports are still down 6.7% YoY to total 4.49mt over the first ten months of the year as stronger domestic production weighed on overseas purchases. Imports of copper concentrate rose 11.3% YoY to 2.31mt last month, while year-to-date imports rose 9.2% YoY to 22.6mt. In ferrous metals, iron ore imports rose 4.6% YoY to 99.4mt in October, however, were down almost 2% MoM as steel output declined following the seasonal slump in construction activity. Cumulative iron ore imports are up 6.5% YoY to 975.8mt.
On the export side, China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium product shipments fell 8.1% YoY to 440.3kt last month, while year-to-date exports declined 17% YoY to 4.7mt over the first ten months of the year. Meanwhile, exports of steel products jumped 34.8% YoY to 74.7mt during Jan’23-Oct’23.
Agriculture – Chinese soybean imports surge
The latest trade numbers from China show that soybean imports rose 25% YoY to 5.2mt in October as domestic crushers increased purchases taking advantage of higher supplies from Brazil. Cumulative imports rose 14.6% YoY to 82.4mt over the first ten months of the year.
Weekly data from the European Commission show that soft wheat shipments for the season so far fell 25% YoY to 9.95mt as of 2 November. Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria were the top destinations for these shipments. The commission added that corn imports over the same period stood at 5.8mt, down 43% compared to a year ago. Weaker corn imports reflect a recovery in EU corn production this season.
Source: ING
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Friday, 02 February 24
DRY BULK MARKET: THE DOWNWARD REVISION IN THE GROWTH OF CAPESIZE TONNE DAYS IN JANUARY WITH THE BCI DROPPING - MARIA BERTZELETOU
In the last week of January, the dry freight market sustained weakness in the Capesize segment, while the number of ballasters in the Southeast (SE ...
Friday, 02 February 24
COAL INDIA ACHIEVES NEARLY 80% OF ITS FY24 PRODUCTION TARGET IN TEN MONTHS - CNBCTV18
For the month of January, the company’s production grew by 9.1% from the same period last year to 78.4 Million Tonnes (MT), from 71.9 MT last ...
Thursday, 01 February 24
CHINA'S WIND, SOLAR CAPACITY TO OVERTAKE COAL IN 2024 - INDUSTRY BODY, REUTERS REPORTED
China’s installed wind and solar capacity is expected to overtake coal for the first time this year, according to industry forecasts.
&nb ...
Thursday, 01 February 24
ANTI-DEDUCTION CLAUSES: CAN A CHARTERER WITHHOLD HIRE WITHOUT AN OWNER'S CONSENT? - SKULD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Summary
In The Anna Dorothea, the Court found that where a charterparty provides that no deduction from hire may be m ...
Thursday, 01 February 24
INDIA REBUILDS COAL STOCKS TO ENSURE ELECTRIC RELIABILITY - REUTERS
India’s electricity supply is much more comfortable at the start of 2024 than in either 2023 or 2022 as coal production has ramped up and the ...
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- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- White Energy Company Limited
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Australian Coal Association
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The University of Queensland
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
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