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Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and traded to its lowest level since July. Meanwhile, NYMEX WTI settled below US$80/bbl for the first time since August. The market is clearly less concerned about the potential for Middle Eastern supply disruptions and is instead focused on an easing in the balance. Prompt time spreads have weakened, suggesting a less tight physical market. And while there are clear demand concerns hovering over the market, supply dynamics have also played a role. For example, Russian seaborne crude oil exports have grown in recent months, which suggests that Russia is not sticking to its additional voluntary cut.
The recent price weakness is likely to lead to growing noise from OPEC+ and in particular from Saudi Arabia. Whilst Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed that they would continue with their additional voluntary cuts through until the year-end, it is increasingly likely that they will extend this into the new year if this downward pressure continues. The Saudis would like to keep Brent above US$80/bbl, as this is roughly where their fiscal breakeven price is. Our oil balance shows that the market will be in surplus in 1Q24, so further cuts are something we could certainly see.
The weakness seen yesterday is likely to continue today. The API released inventory numbers overnight which were bearish. US crude oil inventories increased by 11.9MMbbls over the last week, while Cushing crude oil stocks grew by 1.1MMbbls. For refined products, gasoline inventories fell by 400Mbbls and distillate fuel oil stocks increased by 1MMbbls. The more widely followed EIA inventory report will be released later today.
In the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, there was little change to US crude oil production estimates. US crude oil output is expected to average 12.9MMbbls/d this year, up 1MMbbls/d YoY, while supply growth is expected to be much more modest next year, increasing by less than 250Mbbls/d to average 13.15MMbbls/d
Chinese October trade data released yesterday showed a fall in the trade surplus last month with weaker exports. However, imports were stronger, including crude oil. Crude oil imports averaged 11.58MMbbls/d in the month, up 3.7% MoM and 13.5% higher YoY. This leaves cumulative imports for the year at 11.41MMbbls/d, up 14.4% YoY. Stronger imports over the course of this year may reflect a recovery in domestic demand, while there will also be a fair amount of stock building.
Metals – China boosts gold reserves
China expanded its gold reserves for a twelfth straight month in October, according to the latest data from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). The country raised its gold reserves by around 23 tonnes to a total of 2,215 tonnes last month. China has added about 266 tonnes of gold in the last twelve months through October. In general, central bank demand over the third quarter has been strong, because of the geopolitical environment, and with this uncertainty set to linger, we are likely to see central banks continuing to add to their holdings in the coming months.
China released its preliminary trade data for metals yesterday which shows total monthly imports for unwrought copper jumped 23.7% YoY (+4% MoM) to 500.2kt in October due to declining domestic inventories and firm demand. However, cumulative imports are still down 6.7% YoY to total 4.49mt over the first ten months of the year as stronger domestic production weighed on overseas purchases. Imports of copper concentrate rose 11.3% YoY to 2.31mt last month, while year-to-date imports rose 9.2% YoY to 22.6mt. In ferrous metals, iron ore imports rose 4.6% YoY to 99.4mt in October, however, were down almost 2% MoM as steel output declined following the seasonal slump in construction activity. Cumulative iron ore imports are up 6.5% YoY to 975.8mt.
On the export side, China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium product shipments fell 8.1% YoY to 440.3kt last month, while year-to-date exports declined 17% YoY to 4.7mt over the first ten months of the year. Meanwhile, exports of steel products jumped 34.8% YoY to 74.7mt during Jan’23-Oct’23.
Agriculture – Chinese soybean imports surge
The latest trade numbers from China show that soybean imports rose 25% YoY to 5.2mt in October as domestic crushers increased purchases taking advantage of higher supplies from Brazil. Cumulative imports rose 14.6% YoY to 82.4mt over the first ten months of the year.
Weekly data from the European Commission show that soft wheat shipments for the season so far fell 25% YoY to 9.95mt as of 2 November. Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria were the top destinations for these shipments. The commission added that corn imports over the same period stood at 5.8mt, down 43% compared to a year ago. Weaker corn imports reflect a recovery in EU corn production this season.
Source: ING
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Friday, 02 February 24
DRY BULK MARKET: THE DOWNWARD REVISION IN THE GROWTH OF CAPESIZE TONNE DAYS IN JANUARY WITH THE BCI DROPPING - MARIA BERTZELETOU
In the last week of January, the dry freight market sustained weakness in the Capesize segment, while the number of ballasters in the Southeast (SE ...
Friday, 02 February 24
COAL INDIA ACHIEVES NEARLY 80% OF ITS FY24 PRODUCTION TARGET IN TEN MONTHS - CNBCTV18
For the month of January, the company’s production grew by 9.1% from the same period last year to 78.4 Million Tonnes (MT), from 71.9 MT last ...
Thursday, 01 February 24
CHINA'S WIND, SOLAR CAPACITY TO OVERTAKE COAL IN 2024 - INDUSTRY BODY, REUTERS REPORTED
China’s installed wind and solar capacity is expected to overtake coal for the first time this year, according to industry forecasts.
&nb ...
Thursday, 01 February 24
ANTI-DEDUCTION CLAUSES: CAN A CHARTERER WITHHOLD HIRE WITHOUT AN OWNER'S CONSENT? - SKULD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Summary
In The Anna Dorothea, the Court found that where a charterparty provides that no deduction from hire may be m ...
Thursday, 01 February 24
INDIA REBUILDS COAL STOCKS TO ENSURE ELECTRIC RELIABILITY - REUTERS
India’s electricity supply is much more comfortable at the start of 2024 than in either 2023 or 2022 as coal production has ramped up and the ...
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- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- The University of Queensland
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
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