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Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and traded to its lowest level since July. Meanwhile, NYMEX WTI settled below US$80/bbl for the first time since August. The market is clearly less concerned about the potential for Middle Eastern supply disruptions and is instead focused on an easing in the balance. Prompt time spreads have weakened, suggesting a less tight physical market. And while there are clear demand concerns hovering over the market, supply dynamics have also played a role. For example, Russian seaborne crude oil exports have grown in recent months, which suggests that Russia is not sticking to its additional voluntary cut.
The recent price weakness is likely to lead to growing noise from OPEC+ and in particular from Saudi Arabia. Whilst Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed that they would continue with their additional voluntary cuts through until the year-end, it is increasingly likely that they will extend this into the new year if this downward pressure continues. The Saudis would like to keep Brent above US$80/bbl, as this is roughly where their fiscal breakeven price is. Our oil balance shows that the market will be in surplus in 1Q24, so further cuts are something we could certainly see.
The weakness seen yesterday is likely to continue today. The API released inventory numbers overnight which were bearish. US crude oil inventories increased by 11.9MMbbls over the last week, while Cushing crude oil stocks grew by 1.1MMbbls. For refined products, gasoline inventories fell by 400Mbbls and distillate fuel oil stocks increased by 1MMbbls. The more widely followed EIA inventory report will be released later today.
In the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, there was little change to US crude oil production estimates. US crude oil output is expected to average 12.9MMbbls/d this year, up 1MMbbls/d YoY, while supply growth is expected to be much more modest next year, increasing by less than 250Mbbls/d to average 13.15MMbbls/d
Chinese October trade data released yesterday showed a fall in the trade surplus last month with weaker exports. However, imports were stronger, including crude oil. Crude oil imports averaged 11.58MMbbls/d in the month, up 3.7% MoM and 13.5% higher YoY. This leaves cumulative imports for the year at 11.41MMbbls/d, up 14.4% YoY. Stronger imports over the course of this year may reflect a recovery in domestic demand, while there will also be a fair amount of stock building.
Metals – China boosts gold reserves
China expanded its gold reserves for a twelfth straight month in October, according to the latest data from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). The country raised its gold reserves by around 23 tonnes to a total of 2,215 tonnes last month. China has added about 266 tonnes of gold in the last twelve months through October. In general, central bank demand over the third quarter has been strong, because of the geopolitical environment, and with this uncertainty set to linger, we are likely to see central banks continuing to add to their holdings in the coming months.
China released its preliminary trade data for metals yesterday which shows total monthly imports for unwrought copper jumped 23.7% YoY (+4% MoM) to 500.2kt in October due to declining domestic inventories and firm demand. However, cumulative imports are still down 6.7% YoY to total 4.49mt over the first ten months of the year as stronger domestic production weighed on overseas purchases. Imports of copper concentrate rose 11.3% YoY to 2.31mt last month, while year-to-date imports rose 9.2% YoY to 22.6mt. In ferrous metals, iron ore imports rose 4.6% YoY to 99.4mt in October, however, were down almost 2% MoM as steel output declined following the seasonal slump in construction activity. Cumulative iron ore imports are up 6.5% YoY to 975.8mt.
On the export side, China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium product shipments fell 8.1% YoY to 440.3kt last month, while year-to-date exports declined 17% YoY to 4.7mt over the first ten months of the year. Meanwhile, exports of steel products jumped 34.8% YoY to 74.7mt during Jan’23-Oct’23.
Agriculture – Chinese soybean imports surge
The latest trade numbers from China show that soybean imports rose 25% YoY to 5.2mt in October as domestic crushers increased purchases taking advantage of higher supplies from Brazil. Cumulative imports rose 14.6% YoY to 82.4mt over the first ten months of the year.
Weekly data from the European Commission show that soft wheat shipments for the season so far fell 25% YoY to 9.95mt as of 2 November. Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria were the top destinations for these shipments. The commission added that corn imports over the same period stood at 5.8mt, down 43% compared to a year ago. Weaker corn imports reflect a recovery in EU corn production this season.
Source: ING
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Friday, 23 February 24
STRONG OUTLOOK FOR THE TANKER MARKET IN 2024 AND BEYOND - DNV
Several factors have aligned over the past two years to create a robust and profitable market for tanker owners, which is expected to drive newbuil ...
Friday, 23 February 24
AUSTRALIAN COAL FLOWS TO ASIA HOVER ABOVE LAST YEAR’S VOLUME TONNES - SIGNAL GROUP
In the final days of February, the dry bulk freight market appeared to maintain a relatively stable momentum, particularly evident in the large ves ...
Friday, 23 February 24
RUSSIAN COAL SHIPMENTS FALL 14% AS SANCTIONS BITE - BIMCO
During the first seven weeks of 2024, Russian coal shipments have fallen 14% y/y. Volumes have gradually declined since October 2023 when logistica ...
Thursday, 22 February 24
BIMCO PUBLISHES SHIP FINANCING FORMS TO ENSURE UNINTERRUPTED USE OF SHIPS
BIMCO has published two standard Quiet Enjoyment Letters (QELs), the first standard form QELs available to the industry, to offer a tool that can e ...
Monday, 19 February 24
METALS INVESTMENT: THE DARKEST HOUR IS JUST BEFORE THE DAWN - WOOD MACKENZIE
Things often seem at their worst just before they get better. In terms of meeting our net zero 2050 scenario, we’ve reached a watershed momen ...
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- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- White Energy Company Limited
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
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